India at SCO Summit: RSTV - The Big Picture

India at SCO Summit RSTV –Download PDF Here

Anchor: Frank Rausan Pereira

Guests: Arvind Gupta, Director, VIF; Ashok Sajjanhar, Former Ambassador; Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, Foreign Affairs Editor, Hindustan Times.

Larger Background:

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently arrived in Bishkek, the Kyrgyz capital for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit.
• He met Chinese President Xi Jinping, Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani and Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the SCO Summit to further strengthen bilateral relations.
• Amid frosty relations, no pleasantries were exchanged between PM Modi and Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan.
• This comes as India clarified that there would be no bilateral meeting between the two leaders.
• PM Modi held his first meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss ways to further strengthen the bilateral relations between the two countries.
• He termed the meeting as extremely fruitful.
• PM Modi also held a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and said that it was “excellent”.
• Apart from these two meetings he also met the President of Afghanistan and the heads of the other member states.
• This edition of the big picture will analyse India at the 2019 SCO summit.

Brief Note on the SCO:

• • The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is a permanent intergovernmental international organisation, the creation of which was announced on 15 June 2001 in Shanghai (China) by the Republic of Kazakhstan, the People’s Republic of China, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation, the Republic of Tajikistan, and the Republic of Uzbekistan.

• It was preceded by the Shanghai Five mechanism.

• The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Charter was signed during the St.Petersburg SCO Heads of State meeting in June 2002, and entered into force on 19 September 2003.
• This is the fundamental statutory document which outlines the organisation’s goals and principles, as well as its structure and core activities.
• The historical meeting of the Heads of State Council of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation was held on 8-9 June 2017 in Astana.
• On the meeting the status of a full member of the Organization was granted to the Republic of India and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.
• The SCO’s main goals are as follows:

1. strengthening mutual trust and neighbourliness among the member states;
2. promoting their effective cooperation in politics, trade, the economy, research, technology and culture, as well as in
3. education, energy, transport, tourism, environmental protection, and other areas;
4. making joint efforts to maintain and ensure peace, security and stability in the region; and
5. moving towards the establishment of a democratic, fair and rational new international political and economic order.

• • Proceeding from the Shanghai Spirit, the SCO pursues its internal policy based on the principles of mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, mutual consultations, respect for cultural diversity, and a desire for common development, while its external policy is conducted in accordance with the principles of non-alignment, non-targeting any third country, and openness.
  • The Heads of State Council (HSC) is the supreme decision-making body in the SCO.
  • It meets once a year and adopts decisions and guidelines on all important matters of the organisation.
  • The SCO Heads of Government Council (HGC) meets once a year to discuss the organisation’s multilateral cooperation strategy and priority areas, to resolve current important economic and other cooperation issues, and also to approve the organisation’s annual budget.

• The SCO’s official languages are Russian and Chinese.

• In addition to HSC and HGC meetings, there is also a mechanism of meetings at the level of heads of parliament; secretaries of Security Councils; ministers of foreign affairs, defence, emergency relief, economy, transport, culture, education, and healthcare; heads of law enforcement agencies and supreme and arbitration courts; and prosecutors general. The Council of National Coordinators of SCO Member States (CNC) acts as the SCO coordination mechanism.
• The organisation has two permanent bodies — the SCO Secretariat based in Beijing and the Executive Committee of the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) based in Tashkent.
• The SCO Secretary-General and the Director of the Executive Committee of the SCO RATS are appointed by the Council of Heads of State for a term of three years.
• Rashid Alimov (Tajikistan) and Yevgeny Sysoyev (Russia) have held these positions, respectively, since 1 January 2016.

A Few More Noteworthy Points:

• The SCO comprises eight member states, namely the Republic of India, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the People’s Republic of China, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the Russian Federation, the Republic of Tajikistan, and the Republic of Uzbekistan;
• The SCO counts four observer states, namely the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, the Republic of Belarus, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Mongolia;
• The SCO has six dialogue partners, namely the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Republic of Armenia, the Kingdom of Cambodia, the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal, the Republic of Turkey, and the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka.

Takeaways as far as India is concerned at SCO 2019:

• Prime Minister Modi gave a very good and constructive speech.
• He followed on the speech that he made last year (2018) at Qingdao.
• At Qingdao, he had given an acronym called SECURE (which underlined the points of cooperation, including that of economic cooperation).
• This year (2019), he has come up with another innovative acronym called HEALTH (which brings together the Indian experience in development, and India’s experience in engagement with the other countries). It is this experience that the Prime Minister brought to the table at the SCO.
• He also discussed (as was expected), the issue concerning terrorism. Here without naming any country, he said that those who promote terrorism and fund it, should attract action against them as well.
• He also called for an international conference on terrorism. He feels that the SCO can take a lead in that. One of the key takeaways is that India, which is now a full member of the SCO, is coming up with something positive. There have been many people who have been asking questions for the past several years, that India and Pakistan, after being admitted into the SCO would use this stage to discuss their bilateral issues. As a matter of fact, this danger has not totally gone away- this is because these things can still happen on the sidelines of the SCO.
• PM Modi has also been trying to point out the historical connection between India and the SCO region. Unfortunately, this is often forgotten or has been hijacked and been restricted to the narrow narrative of the Silk Road. However, the links between  India and the SCO region have been very old, civilizational, and ancient. Thus, it is natural that the historical links should be highlighted.

Some of the other unique highlights of the SCO Summit:   

• It was not only the issue of terrorism that Prime Minister Modi focused on. PM Modi also specifically spoke about radicalization as well.  In the acronym that the PM gave, called, “HEALTH”, the alphabet “T” stands for countries that stand against terrorism.
• It is important to note that radicalization is an issue that bedevils the Central Asian Region in a very big way.
• For instance, when we consider the total population of the 5 countries that comprise the Central Asian Region (out of which 4 are members of the SCO. Turkmenistan is not a member of the SCO), we arrive at a figure of about 62-65 million people.
• Out of this population of 62-65 million people, we have a population of about 15,000 men and women, who have gone to Syria and Iraq to fight on the side of the Islamic state. What is a matter of concern is that once the Islamic state gets defeated, these people would come back to their homeland, creating a huge problem.
• It is also important to note that India has great strengths in so far as dealing with the entire issue of radicalization and dealing with the issue of terrorism. India can help in areas such as intelligence sharing as well.
• PM Modi spoke about cooperation with the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) based in Tashkent. Further, even when PM Modi spoke at the Maldivian Parliament, he mentioned that terrorism is not a challenge that a single country faces- as a matter of fact, it is a challenge that is faced by the entire international community and human civilization at large. Thus, terrorism was a strong message at the SCO.
• The other strong message at the SCO was, and something which is very close to the heart of PM Modi, is that of the environment and environmental protection. In his ‘HEALTH’ acronym, the alphabet ‘A’ refers to alternative energy. It is here that he speaks about India’s experience in terms of focusing on renewable energy. He also touched upon regional cooperation and spoke about how India is willing to share its expertise in all these areas.
• PM Modi also focused on Afghanistan (as a matter of fact, this is very significant), even though Afghanistan is not a member of the SCO, but India has a contact group on Afghanistan, and the Prime Minister underlined what India’s fundamental position on Afghanistan is.  
• Finally, it is important to note that the SCO provides an opportunity to the Indian leadership to connect with the leadership of the Central Asian countries.

Bilateral Ties with China on the sidelines of the Summit:

• It was a surprise that President Xi Jinping of China met PM Modi on the sidelines and discussed the issue of Pakistan. Normally, at the highest levels, the agenda is more or less set. It should have been clear to the Chinese that India would reject such a proposal as long as Pakistan continued to sponsor terrorism.
• Also, given the fact that we have just had more terrorist incidents in Kashmir and elsewhere, Xi must have known by then that India’s response would have been relatively negative.
• Thus, it was a surprise that Xi did raise the issue, and it would seem to indicate that China is nervous about what Pakistan’s present condition is. This would include the economy of Pakistan, which is shriveling even as we speak. As a matter of fact, Bangladesh if it has not already, will in a few months, overtake Pakistan in terms of GDP. The state of Maharashtra by itself, is 30% wealthier now in dollar terms than what Pakistan is.
• The Chinese are also nervous because there are now 20-30 thousand Chinese nationals who have taken residence in Pakistan. About half of them are now involved with the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). As a matter of fact, some of them have been attacked by Baloch rebels and they would also almost certainly be caught amidst any conflict between India and Pakistan.
• Finally, Pakistan is also being caught up in the larger US-China conflict. We saw how in the IMF, America hit out at Pakistan in an attempt to essentially hit China. Thus, when we put all this together, we also find that China has assumed the role of being a patron of Pakistan.
• China has been the big bailout funders of Pakistan whenever the latter has faced a difficult situation. China is also the main diplomatic guardian that Pakistan has in the United Nations and elsewhere. However, Pakistan is a problem child. Xi Jinping would like the relationship between India and Pakistan to at least be stable. Perhaps that is what drove him to raise this issue at the highest level.

Can India expect the Chinese to rein in on Pakistan?

• Even PM Modi brought up this issue with Xi Jinping on how Pakistan is a problem. However, we cannot expect the Chinese to go in and rein in on Pakistan.

• • We (India) should realize that the SCO is also trying to develop an identity for itself. Furthermore, the big countries in the SCO have their own agendas, for which they use the SCO for.  

• It is important to note that the SCO came up in the mid-1990’s, mostly at the behest of the Chinese. The SCO has developed since then and today China is the biggest investor in the Central Asian countries. China is also the biggest trading partner in the Central Asian countries. China is also very important for Pakistan because of the China-Pakistan economic corridor. Thus, China has much larger interests.

• Also, the SCO is being seen by Russia and China as an alternative pole in a multipolar world.   

• This is why at the Bishkek Summit level meeting of the SCO, several MOU’s have been signed.

• There is a bigger game at play here. Also, the SCO is being used by China as an instrument for enhancing its influence.

• Russia also realizes that China is the most dominant player and actor in the SCO. There is a mention in the Bishkek Summit about aligning the projects of the Eurasian Economic Union, which is a Russian sponsored project with that of the SCO. Also, since it is an alternative pole, there is a hint somewhere, that in the area of trade, protectionism is being criticized. Thus, this has had an anti-American slant since the beginning.

• Thus, if the SCO is an instrument in the hands of the Chinese, India shouldn’t have much hopes pinned onto China for pressurizing Pakistan on some of the issues which are of concern to her.

Xi and Modi: India-China Boundary

• Both PM Modi and Xi Jinping have agreed to expedite the dialogue on the India-China boundary issue for securing a fair solution. This may have come in passing as far as the bilateral discussions were concerned.
• One wouldn’t imagine that too much of time would have been spent on this. This is because, the leaders from both countries have appointed special representatives. These special representatives have already met 21 times.
• Thus, discussions have been going on. There have been some markers on the road, such as in 2005, one witnessed agreements on the guidelines and principles on the basis of which a fair boundary solution would be made. Then later on, there were also Border Peace Maintaining Committees. Thus, one wouldn’t imagine that on the sidelines of the SCO summit, PM Modi and Xi Jinping would have spent a lot of time discussing the boundary issue. On the other hand, there are other issues, such as the trade deficit, which would have come up in a bigger way between the two leaders. This is because India suffers a huge trade deficit with China.
• Also, this is the first meeting which is taking place between the two leaders after they met in Buenos Aires on the sidelines of the G20 Summit. Again the two leaders (PM Modi and Xi Jinping) are due to meet in Osaka later in the month of June, 2019.
• It is important to note that after Doklam, the two sides were able to at least make an attempt at normalizing the relations.
• One imagines that since April 2018 when the Wuhan Summit meeting took place till now, the relations between India and China have stayed by and large calm and without any major hiccups, particularly on the border. These would have been the focus areas of the discussion rather than on the border as such.
• Xi Jinping said something very interesting- he said that India and China do not pose a threat to each other. We saw India and China in the first four years of the Modi government squabble over the succession of the Dalai Lama. They even had a squabble over the Belt Road Initiative. This finally culminated in the Doklam military standoff. Thus, during the first four years of the Modi administration, we found very little evidence that China would come to any sort of a real understanding with India in any way whatsoever.
• India and China continue to fight proxy wars of influence in the Maldives, Sri Lanka, etc. However, after the Doklam standoff, Modi and Xi Jinping, met during the BRICS Summit, and this resulted in the Wuhan Summit in April 2018. But, what was clear was that China wanted to lower the temperature.
• They accepted that there wasn’t going to be any quick solutions to things such as the border issue, and the fact that China and India would continue to spar especially in the Indian Ocean for spheres of influence. But, China indicated that it did not want to get involved in more problems. As a matter of fact, simultaneously the same policy was being enacted with Japan by the Chinese.  Thus, Shinzo Abe for example, was allowed to land on Chinese soil and hold a state visit there for the first time. Until now, he was strictly banned from doing so by the Chinese.
• All of this seems to indicate that China is increasingly focused on the fact that their relationship with the United States, which is the only country they see as a peer nation and one that can theoretically threaten them, is deteriorating quite rapidly.
• Furthermore, after PM Modi was reelected, China was the second fastest country to have phoned up and send a congratulatory message to him. China also sent a message that they would like Xi and PM Modi to meet again, probably in October 2019, for a follow up to Wuhan and that the spirit of Wuhan should be maintained at all costs.

Modi’s meeting with Putin:

• A lot of the focus as far as India’s foreign policy is concerned, has been focused on U.S., China, what is happening in the Straits of Hormuz and Iran because oil directly has an impact on India. However, Russia at the end of the day is a strategic partner and a very important partner. It was also very clearly seen when both PM Modi and Putin met.
• India’s relations with Russia has recently come under pressure because of American policies such as CAATSA, etc. Russia is also looking at the far East and the Indo-Pacific region quite carefully. The invitation that Russia gave to Prime Minister Modi to visit Vladivostok for the Eastern Economic Forum is a very good opening that India is getting.
• The Far East, Siberia and the North of Russia are rich in minerals. Thus, this will be a new impetus for Indo-Russian relations.
• After the huge mandate the PM Modi has got, one observes that the stature of PM Modi on the world stage has gone up even further. Thus, when PM Modi travels to any global or multilateral forum, he and India’s position will be listened to with much greater respect.
• The highest civilian award was given by Russia to PM Modi even before the results of the 2019 elections were out. This sends out a really strong message that Russia feels that PM Modi has individually in his own way contributed significantly towards expanding India-Russia relations.
• In 2017 June, PM Modi was invited as the Chief Guest at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, which was also an extremely important invite.
• Also, India has been invited by Russia to come forward and explore the Arctic. The Arctic region has rich deposits of oil, gas and other mineral resources.  
• Also, although India has tended to go on with the U.S. sanctions on Iran, however, India has stood very firm on the S-400 deal with Russia. India has sent out a clear message to the United States in this regard.

Concluding Remarks:

• The big questions in the upcoming G20 Summit, due to be held in Osaka, would largely revolve around economics. As a matter of fact, there is clearly a global slowdown in the economy.
• This is partly due to the problems that are spreading owing to the U.S.- China trade war.
• The Indian economy is also slowing down, and we need very large infusions of foreign capital, because our own credit flow cycle is jammed up.
• In Osaka, Modi will be one of the few world leaders who will be holding an enormous political mandate (most other world leaders are in a very shaky shape right now).
• Thus, PM Modi would need to leverage this mandate.

India at SCO Summit RSTV –Download PDF Here

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