Sansad TV Perspective: 50 Days of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

In the series Sansad TV Perspective, we bring you an analysis of the discussion featured on the insightful programme ‘Perspective’ on Sansad TV, on various important topics affecting India and also the world. This analysis will help you immensely for the IAS exam, especially the mains exam, where a well-rounded understanding of topics is a prerequisite for writing answers that fetch good marks.

In this article, we feature the discussion on the topic: 50 Days of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Anchor:– Vishal Dahiya

Guests:

1. Alexander Khara, former Ukraine Ambassador to India
2. Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Sanjay Kulkarni, Defence Expert
3. Dr. Sreeram Chaulia, Foreign Affairs Expert.

Context:

• Russia- Ukraine conflict has reached its 50^th day but there seems to be no end of hostilities despite several rounds of peace talks in the last few weeks.

Status of the conflict:

• Though Russia has made some territorial gains in Ukraine, the progress made by Russia has been much lower than previously expected. Ukraine has been able to defend itself well against Russian military might given the disparity between Ukrainian and Russian military capabilities. Russia has retreated partially from north and east Ukrainian territories and is currently focussing on establishing supremacy in the Donbas region.
• The U.S. administration has unveiled $800 million military assistance for Ukraine. In retaliation, Russia imposed sanctions against 398 members of US Congress.
• Amid talks of Sweden and Finland joining NATo, Russia has warned that there would be no talks of Nuclear free Baltic if Sweden and Finland join NATO, thus adding a new dimension to the ongoing war.

Implications of the prolonged conflict:

• Apart from having lost significant territories to Russia, Ukraine has also been facing a humanitarian crisis. Several thousand people including civilians have been killed or injured. Lakhs have been displaced due to the conflict.
• The economic sanctions against Russia is likely to greatly impact Russia’s economic prospects and push it into a form of economic recession.
• The European Union which remains heavily dependent on Russian energy sources is facing steep shortages of fuel sources. This is causing an uptick in energy prices which in turn has had an impact on inflation levels within EU.
• Infact the inflation pressures have been noted on almost all countries. The food and energy supply chain disruptions due to the war seem to be the main reason for the uptick in inflation rates. Economy of most developing countries remain adversely impacted. According to the Global Crisis Response Group (GCRG) the war in Ukraine is setting in motion a three dimensional crisis- on food, energy and finance- that is producing alarming cascading effects to a world economy already battered by COVID-19 and climate change.

Ending the conflict:

• There is the immediate need to end hostilities by calling for ceasefire and undertake diplomacy and deliberations to ease the tensions and de-escalate.
• The major security concerns of Russia should be addressed. This could be achieved to a great extent by a declaration of formal, binding neutrality for Ukraine. This would indicate a formal policy of not having or even pursuing a military relationship with NATO. This neutrality should also be guaranteed by other powers.
• The limited military success and the pressure on its economy due to the economic sanctions must be used to get Russia to the negotiating table. This aspect has to be considered to make Russia cede some concessions during the negotiations of a peace settlement.
• There is the need for a comprehensive peace settlement to achieve long term peace and security in the region.
• Recognizing the mistake of the past there is the need to include Russia in European security framework. This would meet the need for an inclusive security architecture for the region.

Read more summaries of Perspective in the link.

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