US-Iran Tension: RSTV – Big Picture

US-Iran Tension: RSTV – Big Picture:- Download PDF Here

Anchor: Vishal Dahiya

Guests: Neeraj Srivastava, Former Ambassador; WSH Awwad, West Asia Expert; Swaran Singh, Professor, School of International Studies, JNU.

Context:

• Commander of Iranian Quds Force General Qaseem Solemani was killed by The United States of America in an airstrike near Baghdad International Airport. It was a significant blow against Iran. This has resulted in an escalation of tensions between the two nations.
• The airstrike was described as a defensive action by the US to protect the US personnel abroad. The US has urged all its citizens to leave Iraq immediately. 
• Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a statement that the jihad of resistance against all enemies would continue with a doubled motivation.

Larger Background:

• Qasem Soleimani was the most powerful figure in the Islamic republic. He played a key role in expanding Iran’s influence.
• Soleimani and officials from Iran-backed militias were leaving Baghdad airport on January 3rd when they were attacked by a series of drone strikes. Seven people have been declared dead as a result of the several missiles that struck the cars. The commander had reportedly arrived from Syria along with some Lebanese Hezbollah officials.
• This move has sent relations between the two countries to a new low. France, the United Arab Emirates and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) defence alliance have called for de-escalation.

US-Iran History: A TIMELINE

• • 1953: The relations between Iran and the US has been dicey for over 65 years. It started in 1953 when the US and the British intelligence agencies staged a coup to oust Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadeq.
  • 1979: The US Embassy was seized by protestors and the Americans were held hostage for over a year.

• 1985: The US had been shipping weapons in secrecy in exchange for Iran’s help in freeing US hostages held by Hezbollah militants in Lebanon. However, these were being illegally channelled to rebels in Nicaragua.

• 1988: an Iranian Air Flight carrying Iranian pilgrims on their way to Mecca was shot down in the Gulf by an American warship. The US later stated it was a mistake and that Airbus A300 had been mistaken for a fighter jet.
• 2002: The speech given by President George Bush, during the State of Union address, denounced Iran as a part of an ‘axis of evil’ along with Iraq and North Korea. The speech caused outrage in Iran. 
  • Iran’s currency also lost two-thirds of its value in two years as a result of several sanctions imposed by the UN, the US and the EU against ultra-conservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s government.
• 2015: Iran agreed to a long-term deal on its nuclear programme, with a group of world superpowers (P5 countries and Germany).  According to the deal, Iran agreed to limit its sensitive nuclear activities.
• 2018: President Donald Trump unilaterally abandoned the nuclear deal and reimposed the economic sanctions against Iran. He had also threatened to place restrictions against countries which continued its dealings with Iran (eg CAATSA). This pushed Iran into recession. 
• 2019: The US tightened its sanctions on Iran, and Iran responded back with a counter-pressure campaign.
  • The Iranian forces shot down a US military drone over the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Iran began rolling back on their commitments under the nuclear deal.
• 2020:  Iran’s top military commander, Gen Qasem Soleimani, is killed by a US drone strike in Iraq. Iran vowed vengeance for his death and pulled back from the 2015 nuclear accord.

Why kill Soleimani now?

• Soleimani was an architect of Iranian foreign policy in the Middle East. But he had been identified as a terrorist by the US Government and had been held responsible for the death of hundreds of American troops.
• The Pentagon reported that the US President had ordered the killing of Soleimani as a decisive and a defensive action to protect the US personnel abroad.
• The US President justified his actions stating that he had acted on the intelligence reports which revealed an imminent attack on the US Embassies and a disruption of other important matters which could disrupt the country’s national security.
• However, the democrats assert that no such evidence has been presented to prove the imminent threats stated.
• The US House of Representatives voted to limit the President’s ability to wage war on Iran.

Legal grounds for the defensive action:

• The relevant law in the UN Charter allows for a state to act in self-defence “if an armed attack occurs”. However, this definition could be interpreted by governments in multiple ways.
• The most prevalent confusion has been whether the killing of the Iranian military commander would be termed as an assassination or an act of self-defence.
• The U.S. State Department rejected the term “assassination” to describe the killings, as an assassination is not allowed under international law. 
• Outside of an ongoing armed conflict, the usage of military force is controlled under the jus ad bellum.
  • Jus ad bellum is a set of criteria that are to be consulted before engaging in war in order to determine whether entering into war is permissible, that is, whether it is a just war.
• The first principle of the Jus ad bellum is the prohibition on the use of force. It’s a peremptory norm codified in United Nations Charter Article 2(4). The only possible case of exception to this norm could be in the case of self-defence, even then, there are restrictions to be adhered to as per the UN Charter Article 51.
• UN Charter Article 51 permits the use of military force when faced by an armed attack. 
  • The International Court of Justice has emphasized that the attack must be “grave”. 
  • “In addition to this, the general principle of necessity requires that a defensive military response be a last resort and one that is likely to succeed in accomplishing the lawful objective of defence.”
  • The attack should not be disproportionate to the attack suffered by the victim state.
• More importantly, the law does not permit the use of military force to respond to an alleged plan to attack in the future. 
• Thus, the killing of the Iranian military commander Soleimani does not meet the elements of lawful self-defence unless the US provides evidence to prove that the issue was grave enough to require the use of military force.

Missiles used:

• • The Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani was killed in an attack which involved the air-to-ground missile Hellfire R9X and the drone US MQ-9 Reaper.

• Hellfire R9X:

• • • This missile has been termed as the “Ninja Bomb”.
    • The Hellfire R9X is a variant of the AGM-114 Hellfire, which was originally designed for anti-armour use. However, later models such as the Hellfire R9X were developed for precision drone strikes against other target types.
    • The Hellfire R9X has been designed to reduce collateral damage. The missile was developed by the US Government for airstrikes with pinpoint accuracy with no explosion, against the terror leaders. 
    • The missile employs a six-blade system which pops out on impact and gashes through the specified targets, with the least impact on surroundings.
    • These missiles have been utilized in targeted killings of high-profile individuals.

• General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper:

• It is also called Predator B.

• • It is an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) which is capable of autonomous flight or remotely controlled flight operations developed by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems (GA-ASI) for the United States Air Force (USAF).
  • It is the first hunter-killer which has been designed for high-altitude surveillance and endurance. It is armed and a multi-mission drone, which makes it qualified to carry out irregular warfare operations.
  • It is also equipped with wide-range sensors, multi-mode communications suite, high precision weapons and has a significant amount of loiter time.
  • It is one of the most feared drones in the world.
• Iran retaliated by attacking two US bases Ain Al-Asad Air Base, along with an airbase near Erbil in northern Iraq, using ballistic missiles. 
  • Ballistic missiles are missiles with a high-arching trajectory and are used to deliver warheads to a predetermined target.
  • These missiles are powered only during the initial period of flight after which they are unpowered and fall on its target under the influence of gravity. It is a rocket-propelled, self-guided system.
  • The missiles can carry conventional explosives, and chemical, or biological ammunitions.
•  The missiles used in the attack by Iran are believed to have a range of between 300km to 750km. There were two types of ballistic missiles used which are:
  • The Fateh-110 Short Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) is a road-mobile solid propellant system.
  • Qiam-1 missile is a long-range missile, having a range of 750-800kms.

Impact of the US-Iran tussle on the World:

• The increasing military confrontation between Iran and the US could push Iraq as the central battleground. The Iraqi government is being pushed to a point where it has to choose between Iran and the U.S.
  • The Iraqi parliament has passed a non-binding resolution that the Iraq Government must expel foreign troops from the country. It includes around 5000 US troops in Iraq. 
  • The US troops moving out of Iraq could be interpreted as a sign of the US presence in West Asia nearing an end.

• A fight between the US and Iran, in the world’s most important oil-producing region, could have a severe impact on the global economy. The oil prices could shoot up and could result in a disruption of its supply from the Middle East.
• The killing of Soleimani could reinvigorate the Islamic State (IS) jihadists.
  • They had regenerated themselves in Iraq from the ruins of Al-Qaeda and are still active in Iraq and Syria.
  • The Iraqi state has an effective elite army and police units, mainly trained by the Americans and European allies who had joined the fight against the IS.
  • However, with the current tensions, the US army has been hunkering down in their bases.
  • History has shown that jihadist extremists thrive most when they can take advantage of instability, chaos, and divided enemies. That has happened before and there is a strong chance it might happen again. This could result in a terrorist threat over France and Europe.
• Pakistan, who has been a key ally of the US and Saudi Arabia, is trying to maintain a diplomatic position by refusing to participate in the regional conflict.
• Trump administration’s foreign policy, its commitment to an Asia-first approach to the world, as well as its alignments with key Asian states would be under scrutiny. 

Impact of US-Iran conflict on India:

• India is already struggling under the burden of its plummeting Gross Domestic Product growth. External stress in the form of rising oil prices and a drop in the remittances from Indians living in West Asia could destabilize the current situation further. 
• There are three primary dangers faced by India:
  • Security of the Indians living in the Arabian Gulf region and,
  • Loss of remittances from the people living in the Gulf region, as they would have to move back to India if the situation were to become unstable.
  • Hike in oil prices would also affect the economy in addition to affecting India’s dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. A hike in oil prices would result in high inflation in the Indian economy.

Other Information:

• Iran’s main military response model is an asymmetric form of attack.  Iran’s capability to kill with the use of Explosively Formed Penetrators (EFPs) makes it an asymmetric weapon of choice. This warfare technique was used extensively by Qasem Soleimani to defend Iran.
• Gulf War- The Gulf War, which lasted between August 1990 and February 1991, was an international conflict that erupted after Iraq, under dictator Saddam Hussain, invaded neighbouring Kuwait, claiming it as its “19th province”. After Hussain defied UN warnings, the US and its allies forced Iraq out of Kuwait.
  • It started with Iraq invading Kuwait, in order to gain control of its huge oil reserves and to escape from paying the dues Baghdad owed to Kuwait. However, this action was reprimanded by the United Nations Security Council and warned of military use if Iraqi forces did not retreat by January 1951.
  • The war ended with the US declaring a ceasefire. Two operations- Operation  Desert Storm and Operation Desert Sabre were launched consecutively after the Iraqi forces failed to meet the deadline. 

Conclusion:

• The killing of the Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani was termed as a preemptive measure by the US. His killing represented a dramatic escalation of the existing-conflicts between the two nations. 
• This will have  a huge impact on the other nations and the geopolitics.
• Both Iran and the US for all their rhetoric do not want to engage in a war. A stable middle east is important for world peace.