World Population Prospects - Trends, Highlights, Challenges

The population division of the United Nations has been publishing the ‘World Population Prospects’, biennially, since 1951. It provides an overview of population trends from 1950 to 2050. Each revision of the WPP provides a historical background of population indicators since 1950. The newly released set of national data is being considered for revising estimates of past trends in fertility, mortality, or international migration. The topic is important from the GS-1 and GS-3 perspectives.

Kickstart your preparation with UPSC Notes and get a detailed understanding of the topics in depth. Also, read about Population and associated issues for UPSC from this article.

Parts of World Population Prospects

The Report on World Population Prospects, 2022 is divided into three parts:

• Part 1: Part one describes the most likely trends in population size, growth, and age structure from 1950 to 2050.
• Part 2: Part two discusses the demographic drivers of population change— fertility, mortality, and international migration and offers an assessment of the demographic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Part 3: Part three provides an overview of population trends until 2100 and their potential implications.

World Population Prospects Brief

Key Highlights of World Population Prospects Report

The Global population continues to grow, but the pace of growth is slowing down.

• The Global Population is expected to reach 8 billion on 15th November 2022. 
• The latest projection by the UN suggests that the Global Population could grow to around: 
  • 8.5 billion in 2030
  • 9.7 billion in 2050,
  • 10.4 billion in 2100.  
• Declining mortality levels and increasing life expectancy are also responsible for population growth. Global life expectancy reached 72.8 in 2019. But, further reduction in mortality rate can result in average longevity of around 77.2 years globally in 2050.
• Life expectancy at birth for women exceeded that for men by 5.4 years, globally, with female and male life expectancies at 73.8 and 68.4, respectively.
• Population growth continues so long as the fertility level remains high and the mortality level keeps falling.
• The average fertility of women stood at 2.3 births per woman in 2021 compared to 5 births per woman in 1950. The average fertility rate of women is expected to be 2.1 by 2050.
• The Global growth rate fell under 1% in 2020, for the first time since 1950. The World Population is projected to reach 10.4 billion during the 2080s and continue till 2100.
• Two-thirds of the projected growth of population through 2050 will be based on the momentum of past growth. Such growth rates would occur even if the fertility levels fall to 2 births per woman. None of the actions or initiatives of the government would reduce the fertility rate nor slow down the growth.
• Increased fertility rates and growth rates pose a challenge to the achievement of goals of sustainable development. More resources will be drawn for education and health.

Varied rates of population growth across countries and regions:

• In 2022, the most populous regions are in Asia; Eastern and Southeastern Asia with a population of 2.3 billion, and Southern and Central Asia with 2.1 billion. The most populated countries in these regions are China and India, which account for 1.4 billion in population each.
• More than half the projected increase in population till 2050 will be concentrated predominantly in 8 countries. That is, The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and the United Republic of Tanzania.
• India is predicted to surpass China in population by 2023.
• More than half the population growth through 2050 would be contributed by the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa.
• The 46 least developed countries (LDC) are the fastest growing and are expected to double the population between 2022 and 2050.
• Australia and New Zealand, Northern Africa and Western Asia, and Oceania (excluding Australia and New Zealand) are expected to experience slower and positive growth rates, whereas Eastern and Southeastern Asia, Central and Southern Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe and Northern America are projected to reach their peak size and start to decline before 2100.
• For many countries and areas like Small Island Developing States (SIDS), the rapid growth rate would be accompanied by sea-level rise and climate change.

Changing patterns of fertility and mortality across the world:

• There is a widening gap in life expectancy at birth between countries. In 2021, life expectancy in the Least Developed Countries lagged 7 years below the global average. Increased levels of Child & Maternal Mortality Rates, violence and conflict, and the impact of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) epidemic are the reasons behind this.
• In 2021, Fertility rates high enough to maintain a positive growth rate were found in countries of Africa (4.6 births per woman), Oceania except for New Zealand and Australia (3.1), Northern Africa, and Western Asia (2.8), and Central and Southern Asia (2.3).
• High levels of adolescent fertility have been seen in Caribbean countries, Latin American countries, and countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2021, 10% of babies born worldwide were born to mothers below the age of 10.

Increasing Population of older persons:

• The share of the global population aged 65 years or above is projected to rise from 10 percent in 2022 to 16 percent in 2050.
• By 2050, the number of persons aged 65 years or over worldwide is projected to be more than twice the number of children under age 5.
• There will be an upward shift in population age distribution caused by a drop in fertility level.
• Women have an advantage over men in life expectancy in almost all populations. At the Global level, women constitute 55.7 % of the population aged above 65. But their share is expected to decline to 54.5 percent by 2050.
• Countries with an old-age population should ensure sustainability and social security through efficient healthcare and pension systems.

Demographic Dividend:

• The reduction in fertility rates has increased the population of working age (25-64) in many parts of the world. This has created an accelerated economic growth rate.
• Countries have to invest in their human capital for maximum utilization of their population in a productive age through health care and quality education.

Population Decline:

• The population levels of 61 countries are about to decrease by 1 percent between 2022 and 2050, due to lower fertility levels and a higher rate of emigration.
• Total fertility has fallen in many countries. Today, two-thirds of the population lives in an area where fertility levels are below 2.1 births per woman.

International Migration:

•  International migration has become a major factor in population change.
• The contribution of international migration to population growth exceeded the balance of births over deaths.
• For the next few years, migration will be the major factor in population change in high-income countries. 

Effects of COVID-19 on population change:

• Global life expectancy at birth has fallen from 72.8 in 2019 to 71.0 in 2021.
• The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe restrictions on human mobility, including international migration.
• In low- and middle-income countries, the demand for contraception, and reported numbers of unintended pregnancies and births, have remained relatively stable. In high-income countries, the pandemic has generated short-term fluctuations in the numbers of pregnancies and births.

Relationship between Population growth and Sustainable Development Goals:

• Eradication of Poverty (SDG-1) can be the biggest challenge with the rising population
• Ensuring quality, equitable, and inclusive education for the youth can be challenging in low-income and lower-middle-income countries with a growing number of children.
• Economic growth may struggle to keep pace with the population growth.

World Population Prospects – Findings related to India

• The fertility rate has reduced to 2.159 births per woman, and mortality rates have also fallen from previous years. But the rate of decline has been slower. Therefore, India will overtake China as the most populous country in the world by 2023.
• India’s growth rate has fallen from 2.3% in 1972 to less than 1 percent in 2022. Thus, India has attained a stage where a population replaces itself from one generation to the next.
• Fertility rates and Mortality rates have declined with accessibility to better healthcare.
• The proportion of the people in the working population and aged population will continue to increase in the coming decades.
• The increased level of life expectancy (70.19) has also been a driving factor for population growth in India.

Challenges associated with population growth

• Demographic data assists in addressing the challenges on the path to achieving sustainable development goals.
• Countries experiencing rapid population growth, such as in Sub-Saharan Africa, should provide healthcare and schooling to the growing number of children and guarantee quality education and employment.
• Countries with slow population growth or stagnant growth rate must be prepared for an increasing number of older populations or decreasing populations.
• These challenges are addressed by analyzing future demographic trends and including that information in policies and planning for the future.

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