International Relations This Week: Episode 61

The year 2022 began with an eventful spark in the world of geopolitics that furthered the existing tensions. The emerging complexities across geographies have a prominent influence on India’s foreign policy and some events are crucial for India’s understanding of the international events. 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Crisis in Ukraine
2. Developments in Canada
3. Developments in Pakistan
4. 4th QUAD Foreign Ministers’ Meet 2022

1. Crisis in Ukraine

Context:

• Russia has amassed forces along Ukraine’s borders in what can be said as the worst crisis since the end of the Cold war.
• Russia is threatening to invade Ukraine and it is very likely that the two countries will go into war anytime soon.
• Some people opined that it is a bluff played by Russian President Vladimir Putin. He wants to test the USA and NATO.

Ukraine & Russia:

• Ukraine is very important for the security of Russia. It separates Russia from Western Europe.
• It was part of the erstwhile USSR. After the disintegration of the USSR in 1991, Ukraine became an independent nation.
• After the disintegration of the USSR, Russia and other states too were facing severe economic and security challenges.
• That is why new countries started looking towards European countries for financial support and security.
• Though Russia reconciled with the idea of Poland, Hungry and other nations moving to the western fold, it didn’t want the same for Ukraine. Strategically and Culturally, Ukraine has always been very significant for Russia.
• In 2014, Russia surprised the world by invading the Crimea peninsula, part of Ukraine. After that Putin placed the Russian Black Sea fleet in Crimea.

• European countries and the USA were taken aback by this move. They had already put severe economic sanctions on Russia and after the annexation of Crimea by Russia, they again put more stringent sanctions.
• The Russian president has followed a very intelligent strategy in this aspect. He kept on accusing the USA and its allies of destabilizing Ukraine and forcing it to ask for membership in NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization). This was not acceptable to Russia.
• As the invasion of Crimea didn’t attract a military response from NATO, Russians were emboldened to take the further invasion of Ukraine.
• The demographic profile of Ukraine is very interesting. The eastern parts of Ukraine comprise Lugansk and Donetsk, which are autonomous republics.

• Though these regions claim to be independent, they still come under the control of the Ukraine government. The demography of these regions is different from western Ukraine. People of Lugansk and Donetsk are of the slav race and speak the Russian language, hence associating themselves with Russia more than that of Ukraine.
• These regions have industrial complexes and airports built during the USSR period. However, these infrastructures were destroyed in the frequently occurring conflicts.
• The representatives of these regions are very important for Russia as they have always voted against the motion of joining NATO in the Ukrainian parliament.
• Russia also issues passports to people of these regions.
• The West is accusing Russia of subverting the democratic norms of Ukraine using its agents from this region.
• Russia is saying that if Ukraine attacks people of this region, then they will come to the defense of these people.

Current situations:

• Russia till recently has kept on stating that the military along the borders of Ukraine and Belarus were for military exercise only.
• US president Biden is non-committal with military support to Ukraine as it will bring Russians and American soldiers into direct conflict.
• What provoked Russia is continuous pressure on Ukraine made by NATO members to join them. If one NATO country is attacked, then it is treated as an attack on all NATO countries and all members of NATO will act in collective defense.
• Here Russia has drawn the Redline that Ukraine must not join NATO.
• The withdrawal of non-essential staff from Ukraine by the USA emboldened Putin about the non-committal of the USA to fight a direct war with Russia.
• Russia has also strategically chosen a time for intervention in Ukraine. As the winter Olympics are over, it will not have to face an Olympic boycott from other countries.
• The USA has threatened Russia with stringent sanctions including excluding Russia from the SWIFT banking system. If the USA does this, then it will embolden Putin to devise an alternate financial system for eastern Europe, Central Asian Republics, and other allies. This will put Russia more deeply into the Chinese fold.
• Germany has also threatened that if Russia invaded Ukraine, then it would halt clearance to the Nord 2 pipeline project with Russia.

Diffusion of Ukraine-Russia crisis requires active diplomatic maneuver between western countries and Russia. All parties, instead of fighting wars, should sort all issues through diplomatic means.

2. Developments in Canada

Context:

• Canada has enforced strict COVID vaccine guidelines.
• Truck drivers of Canada have been warned that if they would not take vaccines, then they will not be allowed to cross borders into the USA.

Latest developments:

• The issue of mandatory vaccination is ironic as 85% of the truck drivers in Canada have been vaccinated according to data released by the government.
• Now, in response to this, Truck drivers protested strongly. They laid siege to capital Ottawa and occupied several other public places.
• This was called the freedom convoy. Truck drivers loudly honked horns, disturbing the peace of Canadian cities.
• Initially, the Truck drivers gained some sympathy but this eroded eventually due to their behaviors. They were acting like Trump supporters who climbed Capitol Hill in Washington DC.
• The major issue was that they were funded from across the border, which is threatening Canadian security.
• The economic impact was severe. Trade worth half a billion dollars was impacted between the USA and Canada.
• Automobile companies such as Ford and Toyota had to shut down production on the US side.
• The Canadian president Justin Trudeau evoked unprecedented emergency powers to resolve the crisis, making him a more authoritarian figure, a departure from his liberal view.
• This incident has inspired similar protests also happened in France, Belgium, and other countries
• These protests seem to be a replay of protests such as Black lives matter, Ultra right movement in the USA.
• Such protests in Canada are going to transform Canada, not for good reasons. This could have far-reaching consequences for Canada.

3. Developments in Pakistan

Context:

• Talibani forces have attacked Pakistani forces deployed along the Jalalabad border.

Pakistan, Taliban, and ISIS:

• It was speculated that the Taliban will be a puppet of Pakistan and Pakistan has gained a strategic advantage but it has not happened as the recent incident shows.
• The Taliban is being challenged by ISIS in Afghanistan and it was easy for the Taliban to put the blame for the attack on ISIS.

Issues in Balochistan:

• There were also attack in Balochistan by terrorists and rebels.
• Balochistan is very strategically located as CPEC passes through it and the region borders Iran.
• Pakistan’s President Imran Khan went to the inaugural session of the Winter Olympics (which was boycotted by many countries) in China to show solidarity and gain assurance on some financial aid. However, he returned empty-handed.
• There are also speculations that the army is withdrawing its support from Imran Khan and they want another person to replace him. Hence, the days of Imran Khan are numbered.
• A no-confidence motion against the Imran Khan government has also been placed in the parliament of Pakistan.

4. 4th QUAD foreign ministers meet 2022

Context:

• External affairs minister of India, Sri S Jaishankar visited Australia to take part in the QUAD foreign ministers’ meet.

Major Outcomes:

QUAD, AUKUS, and India:

• When QUAD was formed, India was very enthusiastic as it would help India to not only check Chinese expansionist tendencies but also increase its influence in the Pacific region.
• There were speculations that India will benefit from bilateral interaction with Australia reinforced by QUAD because Australia has developed a strained relationship with China.
• But before realization of this, the USA came up with AUKUS, a security pact between Australia, the UK, and the USA, and QUAD was marginalized.
• The formation of AUKUS also put a dent in US relations with European countries in general and France in particular. With the formation of AUKUS, Australia canceled its nuclear submarine deal with France and decided to buy nuclear submarines from the UK.
• How does this impact India? Till now, India had thought to become a naval superpower in the Indian ocean. However, with British-made and Australian-owned nuclear submarines in the Indian Ocean, Indian Naval dominance in the region will be affected.
• This was one part that the Indian external affairs minister was discussing on the sideline of the QUAD foreign ministers meeting.
• China has already dismissed QUAD as foam on the sea that will soon disappear. The challenge for India is how can India make this QUAD work when Americans seem to put more trust in AUKUS?

Read more International Relations This Week articles in the link.

International Relations This Week – Canada’s Freedom Convoy:- Download PDF Here