11 Oct 2021: UPSC Exam Comprehensive News Analysis

E. Editorials

Category: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

1. A ‘Taiwan flashpoint’ in the Indo-Pacific

Introduction

• Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China (ROC), is an island separated from China by the Taiwan Strait.
• The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) views the island as an unfinished business of China’s liberation and vows to eventually “unify” Taiwan with the mainland.

Civil war

• The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) war with the Kuomintang (KMT, or Nationalist Party) started in the 1920s.
• The KMT forces under Chiang Kai-shek lost the 1945-49 civil war to the CCP forces under Mao Zedong.
• Chiang retreated to the island of Taiwan and set up a regime that claimed authority over the whole of China and pledged to recover the mainland eventually.

Role of US

• The CCP always wanted to unite Taiwan with Mainland China but it was not able to conquer it by force as Taiwan became a military ally of the United States during the Korean War of 1950-53.
• This support to a larger extent came to an end when U.S. recognized the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the legitimate government of China in 1979 ending its official relationship with Taiwan and abrogating its mutual defence treaty with the island.

‘Strategic ambiguity’

• It is the practice by a government of being intentionally ambiguous on certain aspects of its foreign policy.

How it helps the USA?

• The U.S. has declared that it will “maintain the ability to come to Taiwan’s defence” while not committing itself to do so.
• Strategic ambiguity allows the United States to hide its cards in the various scenarios that may arise in the cross-strait relationship.
• Beijing will think twice about harming Taiwan, because it doesn’t know for certain how the United States will respond and to what degree.
• This essentially acts as deterrence and at the same time maintains a carefully orchestrated balance of power by restricting all relevant parties from escalating the situation.

China

• China also has a policy of strategic ambiguity: a refusal to renounce the use of force against Taiwan, but retains the right to use force to achieve the objective. This is its own version of strategic ambiguity.

Carrot and stick policy of China

• China had promised to introduce “one country two systems” in Taiwan, which was first applied to Hong Kong after its reversion to Chinese sovereignty in 1997.
  • Hong Kong can have different economic and political systems from that of mainland China, while being part of the People’s Republic of China.
  • China promised to honour Hong Kong’s liberal policies, system of governance, independent judiciary, and individual freedoms for a period of 50 years from 1997.
• The same was promised to Taiwan, but with the added assurance that it could also retain its armed forces during the transition period.

Economic links

• In 1979, Deng Xiaoping announced the Open Door Policy.
• The open-door policy adopted a stance to achieve economic growth through the active introduction of foreign capital and technology while maintaining its commitment to socialism.
• After this policy was introduced, Taiwan business entities have invested heavily in mainland China and the two economies have become increasingly integrated.

A look at numbers

• Between 1991 and 2020, the stock of Taiwanese capital invested in China reached U.S. $188.5 billion and bilateral trade in 2019 was U.S. $150 billion, about 15% of Taiwan’s GDP.
• By contrast, the stock of Chinese capital invested in Taiwan is barely U.S. $2.4 billion although investments through Hong Kong may be considerable.

Concerns for Taiwan

• The Govt in Taiwan in the past has tried to reduce the island’s economic exposure to China, but has been abortive.
• China is also capable of inflicting acute economic pain on Taiwan through coercive policies if the island is seen to drift towards an independent status.

Taiwan’s politics

Taiwan has two major political parties.

1. The KMT

• It is dominated by the descendants of the mainlanders who came to the island along with Chiang Kai-shek in 1949.
• It remains committed to a one-China policy and does not support the independence of Taiwan.

2. Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)

• It is more representative of the indigenous population of the island, and favours independence.

How does China view these political parties?

• China feels more comfortable with the KMT and is hostile to the DPP.
• DPP won the elections in 2016 under the leadership of Tsai Ing-wen. After the elections, China has resorted to a series of hostile actions against the island, which include economic pressures and military threats.
  • The threats have increased since the re-election of Tsai Ing-wen in the 2020 elections.
  • Public opinion in Taiwan swung in favour of Tsai Ing-wen primarily because of China initiating intimidating tactics in Hong Kong and abandoning the ‘One Country Two Systems’ formula.
• China could no longer pretend that the model was relevant in any sense to Taiwan’s future under Chinese sovereignty.

Inference

• One important implication of this development is that prospects for peaceful unification have diminished.
• Sentiment in Taiwan in favour of independent status has increased.
• The escalating military threats against Taiwan, through daily violations of its Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) and aggressive naval manoeuvres in the Taiwan Strait, are currently deterrent in nature, aimed at heading off any move towards independence and its closer military relationship with the U.S.

The U.S. stance

• The USA will not support the idea of an independent Taiwan. However, it has gradually reversed the policy of avoiding official-level engagements with the Taiwan government.
• Examples:
  • Senior and Cabinet-level officials from the Trump Administration had visited Taiwan.
  • Joe Biden Administration continues with the same policy.
• The Taiwanese representative in Washington was invited to attend the presidential inauguration ceremony (Biden), again a first since 1979.
• There are reports which say U.S. defence personnel have been training with their Taiwanese counterparts for some time.
• A U.S. nuclear-powered submarine reportedly ran into an “unidentified object” while in the South China Sea.

China’s Response

• China has objected to these U.S. actions vociferously.
• Chinese President Xi Jinping said, “The historic task of the complete reunification of the motherland must be fulfilled and will definitely be fulfilled.”

In spite of these differences and aggression Mr. Biden has assured Mr. Xi that the U.S. would abide by the “Taiwan agreement”, that is, the U.S. would not overturn its one China policy.

Is China prepared to carry out military operations to invade and occupy Taiwan?

• U.S. Pacific Commander, Philip Davidson, has a word of caution where he iterates China may invade Taiwan in the next few years to capture power and displace the USA from Asia.
  • Other analysts argue that cross-strait operations would be extremely complex and pacifying a hostile population may prove to be long drawn out and costly.
• China may, therefore, be content to head off Taiwan independence while continuing to build its capabilities and await a further relative decline of U.S. power and its will to intervene in the defence of Taiwan.

Impact of alliances

• The submarine incident might have been an accident or a miscalculation but it surely rings alarm bells in the Indo-Pacific region.
• The Quad grouping of which India is part of, along with AUKUS, with Australia owning nuclear-powered submarines, may act as a deterrent against Chinese moves on Taiwan.
• But they may equally propel China to advance the unification agenda before the balance changes against it in the Indo-Pacific.

Conclusion

• For these reasons, Taiwan is emerging as a potential trigger point for a clash of arms between the U.S. and China.
• In pursuing its Indo-Pacific strategy, India would do well to keep these possible scenarios in mind.

Q.1 Consider the statements as criteria given by the Indian Meteorological Department 
(IMD) for Heat Waves:

Q.2 Consider the following statements with regards to Jim Corbett National Park:

Q.3 Arrange the following in decreasing order of their contribution to India’s greenhouse 
gas emissions:

Q.4 Consider the following statements with regards to the new railway line between Jaynagar 
in Bihar and Bardibas in Nepal:

Q.5 Consider the following statements: 

I. UPSC Mains Practice Questions

1. In pursuing its Indo-­Pacific strategy, India needs to be mindful of the China­-U.S. equations in the region. Analyse. (250 words; 15 marks) (GS 2 International Relations)
2. The U.S. appears to be outlining a softer focus for Quad. Evaluate. (250 words; 15 marks) (GS 2 International Relations)