Sansad TV Perspective: ‘Six Months of Russia-Ukraine Conflict’

In the series Sansad TV Perspective, we bring you an analysis of the discussion featured on the insightful programme ‘Perspective’ on Sansad TV, on various important topics affecting India and also the world. This analysis will help you immensely for the IAS exam, especially the mains exam, where a well-rounded understanding of topics is a prerequisite for writing answers that fetch good marks.

In this article, we feature the discussion on the latest developments on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Guests:

Anchor: Vishal Dahiya

Guests:

1. Anil Trigunayat, Former Ambassador
2. Maj Gen (Retd.) Dhruv C. Katoch, Director, India Foundation
3. Lt. Gen (Retd.) Sanjay Kulkarni, Strategic Expert 

Highlights of the discussion:

• Endgame amid the stalemate situation in the conflict. 
• Larger issues behind the Conflict—Geopolitics and regional politics. 
• How long can both parties including western allies of Ukraine sustain if the stalemate continues?
• What next in this Russia-Ukraine conflict and how and when can this come to an end? 

Introduction:

• It has been six months since Russian forces launched an invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. 
• This conflict has now turned into a grinding campaign of daily air strikes and battles with no clear endgame in sight. 
• Both sides have sustained punishing losses of lives and material, but neither appears willing to consider a ceasefire. 
• Much of Ukraine’s east and south are under Russia’s control. 
• The USA, UK and European Union have unleashed sweeping sanctions against the Russian government and President Vladimir Putin. 
• Experts also point out an energy crisis and food insecurity in several parts of the world due to this ongoing conflict. 

Ukraine’s Stand:

• In his independence day address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed that Ukraine will fight Russia’s invasion “until the end” and will not be making “any concession or compromise”. 
• Ukraine’s strategy appears to be making the occupation costly for the Russians as taking back territories using force remains impractical. 
• If Ukraine loses the Odesa port then the entire Black Sea coast will be under Russia and Ukraine will lose complete sea or port access which is the larger danger.

Shift in Russia’s Strategy:

• Fierce Ukrainian resistance, backed by Western-supplied weapons systems made Russia pull back its troops from areas near Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv and other major cities.
• It then shifted its focus to the Donbas region, where Russia-backed separatists had been fighting government troops since 2014 following Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. 
• With a massive advantage in artillery, Russian forces grabbed the strategic port of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov.
• Russia has taken control of the entire Luhansk region, one of two provinces that make up the Donbas, and also seized just over half of the second, Donetsk. Russia currently occupies about 20% of Ukraine’s territory.
• Russia’s occupation of eastern and southern Ukraine gives it control of land that produces 28 percent of the country’s winter crops, mainly wheat, canola, barley, and rye, and 18 percent of summer crops, mostly maize and sunflower.
• Russia’s invasion has blocked exports of food from Odesa, the main port on the Black Sea, and destroyed storage and transport infrastructure in some areas.
• The Moskva missile cruiser of Russia exploded and sank after reportedly being hit by a Ukrainian missile which forced it to limit naval operations. 
• Russian troops pulled back from the strategic Snake Island, located on shipping lanes near Odessa, following relentless Ukrainian attacks. The retreat reduced the threat of a seaborne Russian attack on Odesa, helping pave the way for a deal to resume Ukrainian grain exports. 

How long can both parties including western allies of Ukraine sustain if the stalemate continues?

• Thousands of soldiers have died on both sides in the conflict. 
• This has created the largest postwar refugee crisis in Europe. More than 6.6 million displaced within Ukraine and over 6.6 million more across the continent. 
• Ukraine also lacks resources for any quick reclamation of its territory. It could take more than a year for Ukraine to amass a force capable of driving the Russians out.
• This conflict seems to have strengthened the trans-Atlantic alliance, which was seen in Finland and Sweden applying to join NATO.
• The UN and Turkey-mediated talks saw a breakthrough in July 2022, in shipping grain from Ukraine’s ports via the Black Sea.
• Despite the ongoing energy crisis and food shortages due to western sanctions on Russia, the west should continue supporting Ukraine for a long time. Abandoning Ukraine would send a message that the West does not have the stomach to stand up for its friends or even its own interests.

Image Source: Times of India

Road Ahead:

• Continuing the war would be costly for both sides and there is no certainty that they would meet strategic and tactical goals through a long-term war. 
• Both sides can agree to a ceasefire and start direct talks seeking a political solution to break the stalemate.
• Regional players with communication lines open to Russia and Ukraine should push them to come for mediation. 
• Prolonging the war would continue to hurt all stakeholders, besides holding the global economy hostage.

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