08 Jan 2023: UPSC Exam Comprehensive News Analysis

E. Editorials

Category: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

1. The escalation on the India-China border

Syllabus: India and neighborhood relations.

Mains: India-China border issue.

Prelims: Tawang region.

Context: 

Background Details:

• Indian and Chinese troops engaged in a clash in the Yangtse region of the Tawang along the India-China border. This was the most serious skirmish between the two countries since the Galwan Valley clash in 2020. 
• According to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), the skirmish occurred due to the development of new road infrastructure on the Chinese side, which is a part of rapid infrastructure development by China along the border. The infrastructure will allow easy access to key locations on the Yangtse plateau. 
• It was observed through satellite imagery that tens of thousands of Indian and Chinese troops continue to be deployed in the region.

For more information on India-China relations, read here: India – China Relations: Updates about the Recent Clashes at the LAC and other Events

Tawang and its significance:

• Tawang is a strategically important Indian territory wedged between China and Bhutan. Tawang’s border with China is a part of the de facto but unsettled India-China border referred to as the Line of Actual Control (LAC). 
• The Yangtse plateau in Tawang is crucial for both the Indian and Chinese militaries because its peak at over 5,700 metres above sea level enables better visibility of the maximum region. 
• Notably, India’s control of the ridgeline prevents Chinese overwatch of roads leading to the Sela Pass.
  • Sela pass, a critical mountain pass is the only access point in and out of Tawang. 
  • India is establishing an all-weather tunnel through the pass. However, all traffic along the road will still remain visible from the plateau.

Skirmish in the Tawang area:

• India has a network of six frontline outposts along the LAC. They are supplied by a forward base about 1.5 km from the LAC that is approximately battalion-sized. Apart from this, there are other significant basings of Indian forces in valleys below the plateau.

Figure 1: Satellite Image of India’s Posts

• Despite Indian forces occupying a commanding position, it is not impregnable. Moreover, these access roads suffer from erosion and landslides due to their steep gradient, environmental conditions, and relatively poor construction. 
• It should be noted that China’s positions are lower on the plateau, but it has invested comparatively more in building new roads and other infrastructure during the previous year. For instance, the construction of a new road from Tangwu New Village to within 150 metres of the LAC ridgeline.

Figure 2: Satellite image of China’s posts

• The above new road along with a small PLA camp enabled Chinese troops to surge upwards to Indian positions during the December 9 skirmish.

Figure 3: Series of Clashes in the Region

Reasons for Infrastructure race in the region:

• The skirmish between China and India on December 9 was caused due to new infrastructure development. Notably, China has compensated for its tactical disadvantage by the ability to rapidly deploy land forces. 
• Though PLA remains at a disadvantageous position in small skirmishes due to the commanding position of Indian troops on the ridgeline. But durable transport infrastructure and associated surge capability developed by the PLA have the potential to alter the situation, especially in the context of less reliable access roads on the Indian side. 
• The recent developments around Galwan and Pangong-Tso reflects that if there is political will, tense situations on both sides can be tackled, thereby reducing the risk of conflict.
• It is suggested in the research that previous clashes and recent intrusions have normalized the presence of Chinese troops adjacent to the LAC. This approach is a part of China’s long-term strategy, where it is able to strategically position any ‘retreat’ to a higher location on the plateau. 
• India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar mentioned that the satellite imagery provides evidence of China’s attempts to change the status quo at the contested border. 
• The pace of infrastructure development in the northeastern State of Arunachal Pradesh has also accelerated. For example, multiple infrastructure projects were inaugurated in the northeastern state.

Challenges Ahead and Way Forward:

• The fast-paced infrastructure development by China along the border has created an escalation trap for India. 
• It is challenging for India to respond to this situation. Moreover, it is also difficult to unilaterally de-escalate without providing any strategic concessions that can endanger India’s position. 
• Presently, India’s response includes increasing vigilance and readiness along the border, along with better surveillance. 
• India should pursue non-military and multilateral measures in parallel to reduce the risk of accidental escalation. India can also seek and receive support from the international community against China’s provocative behaviour on the border. 
• Moreover, regional governments should also pay greater attention to clashes on the India-China border. 
• It should also be remembered that the continued escalation between the two countries can become a major driver for broader tensions in the Indo-Pacific.

Related Link: McMahon Line | International Boundary B/W India & China | Facts for UPSC

Nut Graf: The infrastructure race within the Line of Actual Control by both India and China has the potential to escalate tension in the region, similar to the recent skirmish in Tawang on 9th December 2023. India should take both military and non-military actions to protect the status quo in the border area.

2. Will shutting markets fix Pakistan’s economy?

Syllabus: India and Neighborhood relations.

Mains: India-Pakistan relations.

Context: Measure announced by the government of Pakistan to deal with the economic crisis.

Details:

• In order to deal with a huge financial crisis and depleting foreign exchange reserves, the government of Pakistan has released various measures to save energy and reduce energy bills. For instance, Markets and restaurants will close at 8.30 pm and 10 pm local time to save energy. 
• The government suggests that this step can save nearly $274 million. This measure has drawn flak from both market associations and restaurants. 
• Other measures include a ban on the production of “inefficient” fans and cutting electricity use of government departments by almost 30%.
• Traders and Restaurant associations have refused to abide by the government’s decisions. They have further warned about the protests.

Reasons behind Pakistani Government measures:

• Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves dwindled to a little above $9 billion. This amount is equivalent to the country’s ability to pay for six weeks of imports. Furthermore, they touched $5.56 billion in January 2023.
• The year-on-year inflation rate in 2022 was 24.5%. For perishable food items, inflation stood at 55.93%.
• The pressure on the economy of Pakistan was further increased due to the rise in global energy prices on the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• Pakistan’s economy is nearing a tipping point. The series of latest decisions is suggested to be a knee-jerk reaction to growing pressure on the government.

Other measures taken by the Government of Pakistan:

• The government is engaged in negotiations over the delayed release of $1.1 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It should be noted that in 2019, Pakistan secured a $6 billion bailout from the IMF. 
• It was also announced that Saudi Arabia and China would be helping Pakistan before the end of January 2023.

Historical Background:

• Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves dwindled soon after the nuclear tests in May 1998. It shrunk to a mere $1.2 billion. 
• As a result, then Prime Minister of Pakistan froze all dollar accounts of ordinary Pakistanis, which had deposits of about $11 billion because there was a risk of a bank run. 
• Moreover, it was also asked (in June 1998) that Pakistani Citizens should give up drinking tea (as they spent Rs. 7 billion on it annually at the time) and control the consumption of ghee. The recent decisions are said to be based on these instances.

Related Link: Pakistan ‘ s Crumbling Economy: RSTV – India ‘ s World

Conclusion:

Pakistan should look for more practical and robust solutions like decreasing its defence expenditure, and ensuring robust trade and energy relations with its neighbors (particularly India) to fix its economic crisis.