In this session, we’ll discuss theoretical approach to probability.
You’ve learned that experimental approach to probability is based on actual experiments and adequate recordings of the happening of events. Now we ‘ll learn about the theoretical approach.
Basic difference between these two approaches to probability is that, in the experimental approach; probability of an event is based on what has actually happened, while in theoretical approach; we try to predict what will happen without actually performing the experiments.
It has been observed that the experimental probability of an event approaches to its theoretical probability if the number of trials of an experiment is very large.
Now, why do we need to actually learn theoretical probability? And not just experimental probability ?
If you ask me, because in lot of cases, conducting large number of experiments where we get a probability which is closer and closer to its theoretical probability, it’s not feasible or it’s too expensive.
Like if its just about tossing a coin or throwing a dice, we can still repeat this large number of times to get a better value. But in scenarios like to find the probability of failure of a satellite launch, we can’t do that by launching a satellite using rockets… Or for that matter we cannot find – because it’s not a feasible option. Same way, to find the probability of whether a multi-storied building will withstand an earth-quake, we can’t perform an experiment and try finding out that probability. In that case, it becomes very important that we make certain assumptions, and based on those assumptions if we can
find the theoretical probability, that ‘ll be very useful in – especially in lot of applications where we cannot perform the experiment.
We are going to discuss theoretical approach to probability in detail in this particular session…