AIR Spotlight: Unrest in Pakistan and its Implications

AIR Spotlight is an insightful program featured daily on the All India Radio News on air. In this program, many eminent panellists discuss issues of importance which can be quite helpful in IAS exam preparation.

This article is about the discussion on: ‘Unrest in Pakistan and its Implications’.

Participants:

• TCA Raghavan: Former Ambassador
• Neelima Rai Chaudhry: Journalist

Context – Pakistan appears to have slipped deeper into a quagmire with the arrest of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf  (PTI) Chairman and former Prime Minister Imran Khan. His supporters and members of PTI have taken to the streets in major cities across the country, even venting their ire at military establishments. The protests are in huge numbers and the army and political leadership are in disarray.

Pakistan is in the midst of multi-dimensional chaos

The former Prime Minister of Pakistan was arrested on charges of corruption. His protesters are however taking on the high and mighty Pakistan army. These protests have created major confusion in the minds of the army and political leadership. However, this is not the only problem the country is facing.

• The foreign exchange of Pakistan is at rock bottom. There, food prices are skyrocketing and energy costs are fast rising. The threat from terror groups in Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa is also increasing. There is also the tension along the Durand Line, which is being raised by the Taliban. 
• The political conflict Pakistan is dealing with at present is surely going to compound  Pakistan’s economic situation and make it worse.

Fall of Imran Khan – Reasons and Repercussions

Imran Khan served as the 22nd  Prime Minister of Pakistan from August 2018 until April 2022. He is the founder and chairman of the political party – Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). Imran Khan lost power about a year ago primarily because his relationship with Pakistan’s military establishment deteriorated. 

• His supporters have alleged that Khan’s detention is political persecution by the government and the powerful military establishment.
• Khan had enjoyed a close relationship with the military when he was in power. It is ironic that Imran Khan initially came to power on the back of the armed forces and at present, they are his major opponents. 
• When Khan was removed from office, he became highly critical of the top military leaders and accused them of colluding with foreign powers to orchestrate his downfall. 
• Different political parties in Pakistan are trying to cement their relationship with the Pakistan military to settle the score with their political opponent, PTI. 
• Khan’s popularity has soared since he was removed as the Prime Minister via a vote of no confidence, and he had regularly mobilised protests across the country to demand early general elections and the military’s removal from politics.
• Since being removed from office, Imran Khan is facing as many as 121 cases, including treason, blasphemy, inciting violence and corruption. 
• In Pakistan, similar situations have happened in the past also, which led to the removal of other Prime Ministers including Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto. Each time there was a crisis in Pakistan, it was resolved by some arbitrary improvisation such as people being jailed, removed from politics or sent into exile. Perhaps, some kind of improvisation of a similar nature will be seen this time around also. There is no easy solution to the civil-military conflict in Pakistan.

Popularity of Imran Khan

Since being ousted from office, Imran Khan has stirred up quite the perfect storm in the country. Khan’s popularity has skyrocketed since he lost the vote of confidence in the National Assembly. He showed the courage to take on Pakistan’s powerful military leadership in public meetings. 

• He is regarded as a Messiah-like figure among his supporters and not as a traditional politician.
• He remains Pakistan’s most popular sporting idol and for a cricket-crazy Pakistan, bringing home the 1992 World Cup was an icing on the cake.
• He has been in politics since forming PTI in 1996, he is not regarded as a corrupt politician by the masses. There are serious allegations of unaccounted foreign money pouring in for PTI and Imran Khan, and even if these come to be true, they will be considered machinations of his political opponents. Such is his fan following in the country.
• Due to his charismatic personality and his cricket legacy, Imran Khan managed to engage the otherwise indifferent masses, who traditionally did not become part of the political process.

Military Coup 

It seems that the military is not inclined towards directly taking power in Pakistan, as they understand that Pakistan now is a very complex and difficult society to govern. An improvised solution in which the army will play its role from behind is seen as an option.

• Since Pakistan won independence in 1947, it has been struggling with political instability, regime changes and coups with the military having a historically decisive role in who stays in power.
• The Pakistan Army, which has ruled the coup-prone country for more than half of its 75-plus years of existence, has hitherto wielded considerable power in matters of security and foreign policy.

Conclusion – The problems in Pakistan come layered upon other problems – dwindling forex reserves, political polarisation, inflation, increasing terror attacks and a serious division in its elite politics. The arrest of Imran Khan has placed the country in a very bad place. It seems that the establishment has no intention of allowing Khan to participate in, or possibly win the general elections scheduled later this year in 2023.

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