International Relations This Week: Russia - Ukraine Crisis

International relations is a very important segment of the UPSC syllabus. In this series, we present an analysis of the most important international issues and developments that occurred over the past week relevant for the IAS exam. In this article, you can learn more about the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Introduction: 

• Tensions are mounting over the situation in eastern Ukraine, with increased cease-fire breaches and a significant Russian military buildup near the region’s border.
• The concentration of Russian troops has alarmed Ukraine and the West, who have asked Russia to withdraw them.
• Russia has claimed that it is free to station troops on its soil and has advised Kyiv’s administration against using force to recover rebel-held areas in the east, where more than 14,000 people have died in seven years of warfare.

Image source: Indian Express

History of Crisis in Ukraine:

• Following the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Ukraine gained independence in 1991.
• Ukraine was a member of the Soviet Union until 1991 when it disintegrated, and Russia has tried to maintain the country in its orbit since then.
• In 2014, a separatist insurgency started in Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland, known as the Donbas (short for Donetsk Basin).
• In 2014, mass demonstrations erupted in Ukraine following Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision to reject an association agreement with the European Union in favour of tighter relations with Russia.
• Russia has gained a nautical advantage in the region as a result of its invasion and subsequent annexation of Crimea. 
• The President was quickly deposed. Russia retaliated by conquering Crimea, a Ukrainian province.
• As a result, both the US and the EU have pledged to safeguard the integrity of Ukraine’s borders.

Euromaidan Movement: 

• The demonstrations, known as the Euromaidan movement, featured violent battles between protestors and police forces, culminating in Yanukovych’s fall in February 2014.
• Fearing a rise in Western influence in Ukraine, Russia decided to intervene by seizing Crimea, which had previously been part of Ukraine.

Interests of Different Stakeholders in Ukraine: 

What does Russia want?

• Ukraine and Russia have shared cultural, linguistic, and family ties for hundreds of years.
• Russia wants to put a halt to NATO’s eastward expansion. NATO’s military presence on Russia’s side of Europe is to be phased out, according to the nation.
• Ukraine’s deployment of Turkish drones against Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine, as well as Western military manoeuvres in the Black Sea, have already alarmed Russia.
• According to sources, Russia is also dissatisfied that the 2015 Minsk peace agreement aimed at ending the violence in eastern Ukraine has yet to be implemented.
• Russia considers Ukraine’s participation in the Russian camp to be critical to Russian and regional security.
• Russia’s massing of soldiers at Ukraine’s border is a warning that unless Ukraine and the West back off, it would be considered an invasion.

What are the West’s interests in Ukraine?

• Since Ukraine’s breakup from the Soviet Union, Russia and the West have competed for increased influence in the nation in order to maintain the region’s power balance.
• The common heritage of the nations is an emotive subject for many in Russia and the ethnically Russian portions of Ukraine, and it has been used for electoral and military goals.
• Ukraine serves as a vital buffer between Russia and the West for the United States and the European Union.
• As tensions with Russia escalate, the United States and the European Union are becoming more determined to keep Ukraine out of Russian hands.
• Efforts to enlist Ukraine in NATO have been continuing for some years, but they appear to have accelerated recently.

What is the US’ role in these tensions?

• The US was prepared to increase its military presence in Eastern Europe if Russia invaded Ukraine.
• The US has warned that if Russia invades Ukraine again, the US and its European allies would retaliate with harsh economic sanctions.
• In reaction to such an escalation, the US would “give additional defensive material to the Ukrainians” and “fortify our NATO partners on the eastern flank with additional capabilities.”

Concerns with NATO  

• Russia’s activities have prompted fears about its intentions abroad in Eastern Europe, and a Russian intervention into NATO territory would elicit a NATO ally’s response.
• If Russia grows its position in Ukraine or into NATO nations, the situation in Ukraine risks further deterioration and aggravation of US-Russian ties.
• The battle has heightened tensions in Russia’s ties with the US and Europe, hurting prospects for collaboration in other areas such as counter-terrorism, weapons control, and a political settlement in Syria.

Annexation of Crimea

• The majority of the world considers Crimea to be a portion of Ukraine under hostile Russian occupation. Geographically, it is a peninsula in the Black Sea that has been battled over for ages due to its strategic importance.
• Ukraine’s attempts to strengthen political and commercial ties with the EU set the stage for annexation.
• Yanukovych has risen to notoriety after being elected president of Ukraine in 2010.
• Russia pressed him to reject a new association and trade pact with the EU, which had been negotiated over a seven-year period.
• Russia imposed severe economic penalties on Yanukovych, prohibiting the import of Ukrainian commodities or their transit via its territory to China.
• It also posed a security concern to Ukraine, inciting unrest in the country’s east and Crimea.
• Yanukovych agreed to a postponement of the EU deal. The Euromaidan demonstrations of 2013 resulted from this, with the Ukrainian people marching to the streets.
• However, Ukrainians saw it as a watershed point in their country’s history, with the option of remaining tethered to despotic Russia or joining a rule-based Europe.
• Putin’s military takeover of the strategically important Crimean peninsula was spurred by this.

Image source: CNN

The Economic Aspect of Crisis and Russian Gas

• Because of the unofficial war, Ukrainian exports to Russia have plummeted.
• Thanks to industries like agriculture and steel, China has surpassed the United States as Ukraine’s top trading partner.
• In 2014, bilateral economic ties between Russia and Ukraine reached a tipping point when Ukraine ceased buying gas from Russia and began purchasing it on the open European market. 

Russia–Ukraine gas

• Gas from Russian sources continues to move through Ukraine to the EU under a deal that runs until 2024.
• Russia is unlikely to attack Ukraine directly, thus the EU is forced to manage the frequently tense gas ties between Ukraine and Russia.
• Russia believes that by constructing additional pipelines surrounding Ukraine, it may increase pressure on the country and cause the EU to lose interest in the country.
• This initiative includes the construction of new pipelines such as Nordstream 1, Southstream, and Nordstream 2. 
• Energy is being weaponized in this way to deprive Ukraine of its strategic assets while also increasing Russia’s power inside the EU.

EU–Ukraine–Russia relations

• Europe is putting transportation and energy supplies in Russian hands by investing in Nordstream 2.
• Germany continues to embrace the pipeline that would transform the nation into Europe’s biggest gas hub. The EU indirectly supports Russia’s aggressiveness in Ukraine by approving the pipeline.

Russia-Ukraine Crisis: Implications on India

1. Impact on India’s Policy towards the West: An invasion by Russia and a break with the United States and its allies would put pressure on India to choose between the Western alliance and Russia. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, India has been unable to overlook the reality that Western operations and policies in Russia’s periphery have been far from altruistic, and appear to be motivated by a Cold War mindset.
2. Impact on Defense Ties with Russia: It’s possible that India will face CAATSA fines as a result of the S-400 acquisition. There might be a push for India to sever all defence relations with Russia. For the foreseeable future, India’s military forces would be reliant on Russian spares and equipment, so this will be difficult to consider.
3. Slow Pace of Relationship with China: A pact between the US and Russia might cause the latter to slow down its engagement with China. This might allow India to expand on its recent efforts to re-establish ties with Russia.
4. Benefits in INSTC Project: If this is accompanied by similar warming in US-Iran ties, it might clear the way for India, Russia, and Iran to collaborate on the International North-South Transportation (INSTC) project, which has been hampered by US sanctions on Iran and Russia.
5. Concerns with Crimea Annexation: India has expressed its displeasure with Russia’s takeover of Crimea, but it is also aware of Crimea’s profound civilisational and historical ties to Russia.
6. Impact of Changing Geo-Economic Situations: The issue with Ukraine is that the world is becoming increasingly economically and geopolitically interconnected. Any improvement in Russia-China ties has ramifications for India.
7. National Interests with Russia: Maintaining strong cooperation with Russia serves India’s national interests. India has to retain a strong strategic alliance with Russia because it lacks the leverage offered by Permanent Membership in the UN Security Council to preserve its essential national interests. As a result, India cannot join any Western strategy aimed at isolating Russia.

Also read: India – Russia Relations

Recommendations for India: 

• India should advocate for political and diplomatic solutions that protect all nations in the region’s legitimate interests while also ensuring long-term peace and stability in Europe and beyond.
• The only way ahead is via peaceful conversation for a long-term solution that is agreeable to all parties.
• This signalled India’s support for Russia in the Ukraine crisis, which includes Crimea.

Way Forward

• Russia is undertaking a sophisticated misinformation campaign that rejects Ukraine’s right to exist, referring to it as an artificial state with no right to self-determination. 
• This makes reaching a peaceful agreement exceedingly difficult.
• Crimea is viewed by Ukrainians as a long-term issue, but Russia claims Crimea has always been Russian and declared itself Russian in a vote.
• Ukraine has established a “Crimea platform” in order to keep the issue on the international agenda, address human rights issues, and maintain Crimea’s international non-recognition. There are no plans to use force to recapture Crimea.
• The Ukrainian approach is to focus on attaining a long-term truce and working with its Normandy Format allies, France and Germany, to persuade the Russian government to withdraw assistance for its proxies and allow for the region’s gradual safe reintegration into Ukraine.

Read more International Relations This Week articles in the link.

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