Sansad TV Perspective: Tensions in Korean Peninsula

In the series Sansad TV Perspective, we bring you an analysis of the discussion featured on the insightful programme ‘Perspective’ on Sansad TV, on various important topics affecting India and also the world. This analysis will help you immensely for the IAS exam, especially the mains exam, where a well-rounded understanding of topics is a prerequisite for writing answers that fetch good marks.

In this article, we feature the discussion on the topic: ‘Tensions in Korean Peninsula’.

Anchor: Vishal Dahiya

Guests:

1. Kartik Bommakanti, Senior Fellow, ORF
2. Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, Foreign Affairs Editor, Hindustan Times
3. Manjeev Singh Puri, Former Ambassador

Context: North Korea launched two ballistic missiles on 20th February 2023.

Highlights of the discussion:

• Introduction
• Factors behind North Korea’s stance
• Associated concerns
• Way ahead

Introduction:

• North Korea launched two more ballistic missiles off its east coast on 20th February 2023 with state news agency KCNA quoting the powerful sister of leader Kim Jong Un saying Pyongyang’s use of the Pacific as its firing range would depend on U.S. Forces’ action character. 
• These launches come just two days after North Korea fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the sea off Japan’s west coast, prompting the United States to hold joint air exercises with South Korea and separately with Japan on 19th February 2023. 
• While Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida requested an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting over the tests, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff strongly condemned the launches as a grave provocation that should be ceased immediately.

Factors behind such tests by North Korea:

• North Korea has an autocratic regime and is a nuclear-armed nation. It has a secretive foreign policy and not much is known about its strategy.
• The deeper reason for North Korea resorting to such tactics is that it has only two sources of leverage at its disposal which are the nuclear weapons programme and the missile programme.
• These methods act as invariable tools of coercion to balance South Korea and Japan in the region and their close ally the United States.
• It allows them to remind the rest of the world that it has the capacity to refine and improve its capacities and can target places well beyond the Korean peninsula.
• There are domestic political reasons also where Mr. Kim Jong-un asserts himself.
• There are various other issues like the U.S. upping the ante in the Far Eastern region as a result of Chinese hegemonistic moves.
• It is also highlighted by experts that some years back the President of North Korea was given importance and called to a meeting with the President of the United States (Mr. Trump) but things didn’t work and there was no improvement in the relations. This might have hurt the North Korean President.
• There are not any economic repercussions for its activities as its trade border is open with China.
• It might be supported by the Chinese so as to remind the Americans about the importance to stabilize the region.

Assessment of the Scenario of North Korea and associated concerns:

• There is a steady acceleration in North Korea’s missile programme. Notably, around 25% of all missile launches in the past were conducted in the year 2022.
• On 9th February 2023, North Korea held a military parade where they displayed the largest number of Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles.
• North Korean President also highlighted the exponential rise in the number of nuclear missiles and arsenal in 2023. He also pointed out the increase in tactical nuclear missiles which are usually designed for actual warfare.
• North Korea is trying to align closely with Beijing and Moscow as reflected in its language and foreign policy.
• Since 2019, there have been no major discussions/negotiations between North Korea and the U.S. or any North East Asian country. North Korea further doesn’t seem to be interested in any diplomatic negotiations in near future.
• The tension in North East Asia would further increase because of the Taiwan issue and the Japanese announcement of revising its defence strategy.
• Moreover, North Korea serves as a proxy for both China and Russia and is pivotal in destabilizing the region.
• The multilateral forums like AUKUS and QUAD would further increase the threat of power tussle in the Indo-Pacific region.
• The diplomatic polity of the U.S. also hampers the relationship with countries like China and North Korea. For instance, the entire spy balloon saga was a reaction to American citizens’ concerns.

Way Ahead:

• Diplomatic efforts can be made to bring North Korea to the negotiating table. However, with the support of China and Russia in the UNSC not much harm can be done to it through sanctions.
• There should be efforts to understand the demand of North Korea and use it as a basis for negotiations or concessions.
• The U.S.- China issue should be separated from the U.S.- North Korea matter.

Conclusion

• It is suggested by the experts that North Korea will persist with its strategy and there is no likelihood of a reduction in the tensions in the region.
• Moreover, Japanese defence preparedness would further complicate the situation as both North Korea and China would face a more assertive Japan (which they haven’t faced since World War II).
• There are also observations that if Japan becomes a kind of military power that is commensurate to its economic strength, it would present a new dynamic power altogether.

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