Sansad TV Perspective: Iran Nuclear Deal: Attempt to Revive

In the series Sansad TV Perspective, we bring you an analysis of the discussion featured on the insightful programme ‘Perspective’ on Sansad TV, on various important topics affecting India and also the world. This analysis will help you immensely for the IAS exam, especially the mains exam, where a well-rounded understanding of topics is a prerequisite for writing answers that fetch good marks.

In this article, we feature the discussion on the topic: Iran Nuclear Deal: Attempt to Revive

Anchor: Teena Jha

Participants: 

1. Dinshaw J. Mistry, Professor, International Relations and Asian Studies, University of Cincinnati
2. Jitendra Nath Misra, Former Ambassador 
3. Prof. Swaran Singh, Chairperson, Centre for International Politics, Organization and Disarmament, JNU

Context: 

• The present time witnessed the resumption of the Iran nuclear talks which was stalled amidst a sensitive geopolitical clash of interest in the year 2018 by the US under the Donald Trump administration. 
• This Iran nuclear talk involved the representatives from Iran, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom who underwent a discussion on the revival of nuclear activities. 
• The talk was held in Vienna and the restoration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was necessitated and this was the seventh round of meetings within a span of six months. 
• In agreement with the aspirations of Iran to be free of all the unilateral sanctions, the US government assured to take necessary steps to refurbish the alliance along with a warning that the doors of negotiations will not be open forever. 
• This raises the question of outcomes that might be anticipated in the upcoming days to shape the Iran nuclear programme and demands a thorough intervention by experts.

The Iran Nuclear Deal:

• In the year 2015, the landmark agreement famous as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was signed between Iran and other major powers of the world including the United States.
• Under this accord, Iran agreed to obey the regulations pertaining to nuclear facilities and welcomed international inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Read More About the Iran Nuclear Deal in the linked article.

The Rise of Tension:

• Iran was alleged to develop nuclear weapons along with Uranium enrichment beyond the permissible limit which was against the norms of JCPOA.
• Iran was firm to deny such allegations of the international community and claimed peaceful nuclear activities were being carried out.
• Iran had two uranium enrichment plants in Natanz and Fordo which ran 20,000 centrifuges for enrichment. This was again a deviation from the permissible criteria of JCPOA which allowed not more than 5060 centrifuges till the year 2026.
• It was mentioned in the accord of 2015 that till 2031 no enrichment was allowed at Fordo and the underground facility must be converted into a nuclear physics and technology centre. The centrifuges over there were supposed to be used for medicine, industry, agriculture.
• Besides, Iran started the construction of a heavy-water nuclear facility in the town of Arak. This heavy water reactor contained plutonium which is a potent radioactive element for nuclear bombs. This made the international community suspicious and they wanted the facility at Arak to be dismantled. Iran agreed not to operate the reactor and ensured that it would redesign the reactor under JCPOA so that it could not produce weapons-grade plutonium. 
• Iran was under the control and monitoring of the IAEA thereby the UN ban on the import and export of conventional arms of Iran continued till 2020. The ballistic missile technology will be restricted till 2023.
• Iran’s oil sales witnessed massive loss as the US threatened the partner countries that any country indulging in trade with Iran would not be allowed to continue business with the US. This worsened the economic condition of Iran.

Participants of the Negotiation:

• Iran along with five permanent members of the UNSC (China, France, Russia, the UK and the US) and Germany collectively known as the P5 +1 and the European Union were at the forefront of negotiations. Middle East powers such as Saudi Arabia and Israel raised their concern over the Iran nuclear talks as they will be influenced by the nuclear proceedings of Iran in the region. It is noteworthy to observe that the US did not attend the meeting but its official kept a keen observation on the proceedings of the talk.

Implication of Iran’s new leadership:

• Iran’s new President Ibrahim Raisi seemingly opposed retrieving a negotiating term with the US and refrained from calling it nuclear talks. 
• Iran under the leadership of Raisi is hellbent on its demand of an initiative from the US to lift the sanctions. This is a guarantee demanded by Iran that must be ensured from the US side.
• It is alleged by the US that Iran refused to meet and come to a proper negotiation which is not very welcoming for Iran with its declining economic condition.

 Parties in favour of the Deal:

• There are parties that are optimistic about the revival of the Iran Nuclear Deal and believe that this deal will prevent Iran from developing nuclear bombs.
• Iran’s involvement in human rights violations, assisting the militants and increasing instabilities in Israel and Saudi Arabia can be tackled in a better way if the deal is restored. 

Parties against the Deal:

• The revival of the deal would accompany the easing out of the sanctions on Iran. This would open up opportunities for Iran to generate huge oil revenues.
• As a result, Iran will make use of those resources to fund terror activities and destabilise the Middle East region. 
• The US is clear in its message that it will not approve the development of nuclear weapons by Iran, however, it is willing to arrive at negotiable terms. This makes the situation even more confusing to expect a fruitful result out of the talk.
• The six prior indirect talks conducted through European mediators also failed to bring out a resolution. 
• Iran’s increasing uranium stockpiling and growing non-compliance with the parameters of JCPOA is an indication that Iran is unlikely to come down to negotiation under the supremacy of the US. 
• Besides, Iran refused to provide IAEA access to its Karaj centrifuge manufacturing facility which is operating the uranium enrichment process without any monitoring. This adds to another signal that the revival of the Iran nuclear deal is unlikely to happen.

The Iranian Look East Strategy:

• Iran under its new leadership is all set to look towards a multipolar world if its ties with the US get difficult. This goes well in associating with China and Russia to constrain the global power of the US.

The fate of the Iran Nuclear Deal:

• The experts inferred that Iran has walked miles ahead of revisiting the JCPOA norms as its nuclear programme will be backed by China, Russia, Turkey, Malaysia, Pakistan which is going to increase the complexity for the US. Therefore this nuclear talk has been perceived as a mere damage limitation talk.
• Better diplomatic engagements between Iran and the US is very much in favour of India’s interest and India has conveyed a clear message in favour of the JCPOA and it doesn’t support the nuclear development in Iran. This is backed by the fact that India has diplomatic ties with both countries. For example, India’s ambitious Chabahar Port is a connectivity project with Iran to gain smooth access to central Asia. 
• A well established diplomatic channel between Iran and the US is a prerequisite that will safeguard India’s trade interest and the interest of other partner countries.
• The talks about talks as it is referred to must be replaced by a roadmap that determines whether the parties are in agreement or not as this would be a time tested way as there is no tangible solution at the present moment. However, it is recommended that the talks that directly engage both Iran and the US must continue to take place.

Read more summaries of Perspective in the link.

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