20 Feb 2020: UPSC Exam Comprehensive News Analysis

E. Editorials

Category: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

1. A Trump India visit, in campaign mode

The editorial talks about what to and what not to expect from Donald Trump’s maiden visit to India in February 2020.  It suggests that India must calibrate the costs and benefits of the U.S. President’s political tour.

India – US trade relations in the recent past:

• Over the past three years, U.S.-India trade tensions have been escalating despite America’s trade deficit with India beginning to narrow.
  • The trade deficit with India is less than a tenth of the U.S.’s trade deficit with China.
• As trade negotiations stalled, the Trump administration levied steel and aluminium tariffs on India.
• Subsequently, it revoked India’s benefits under the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) programme.
• It briefly contemplated limiting H1-B visas quota for Indians to 15% due to divergences on e-commerce policy.
• The U.S. also raised the possibility of a Section 301 investigation into India’s tariff/non-tariff barriers to coerce India to eliminate practices that impede U.S. exports.

Defence Package:

• India has reportedly finalised a defence package with the U.S. For more details, check the 19^th February Comprehensive News Analysis.
• In exchange, the expectation for India was the restoration of benefits under the GSP programme — under which, Indian exports worth $5.7-billion to the U.S. enjoyed duty-free status (2017).
• A day after Mr. Trump’s visit dates to India were announced, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) released a federal notice on eliminating a host of countries from its methodology for countervailing duty (CVD) investigations.
  • India was removed from the list of developing countries that “are exempt from investigations into whether they harm American industry with unfairly subsidised exports”.
  • With this move, the U.S. essentially closed the door on reinstating India’s benefits under the GSP, a preferential arrangement meant only for developing countries.
• The timing of this move suggests Mr. Trump’s motivations pertaining to his India visit have little to do with tempering bilateral frictions. Instead, political motivations seem to be writ large.
  • In visiting Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home turf, it is evident that the American President is attempting to mobilise the Indian American community by showcasing his proximity to Mr. Modi’s India.

Way forward:

• • Challenges for India could worsen in the coming years. If re-elected, Mr. Trump will possibly double-down on his will to seek renewed trade deals. At which point, remainder issues under U.S.-India trade ties could witness heightened tensions.
  • It would be prudent for India to not let the visit reflect as a partisan endorsement for Trump’s re-election.

2. Infinite crisis

Context:

Afghanistan has declared incumbent Ashraf Ghani winner of a disputed presidential election.

This issue has been covered in the 19^th February 2020 Comprehensive News Analysis. Click here to read.

 

Category: HEALTH

1. Secrecy hurts – On COVID-19 epidemic

Steps taken by China in addressing COVID-19 epidemic

• From quick sequencing of the whole genome of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that causes COVID-19 — after alerting WHO in December 2019 about a cluster of pneumonia cases of unknown cause — to quickly developing viral diagnostic tests, China has done much to address the epidemic.
• The country was also quick to build two new hospitals with 2,600 beds.
• Also, the many facilities that became temporary hospitals in the face of growing cases are a testimony to China’s ability to pull off the unimaginable in containing the epidemic.
• Whether the decision to shut down huge cities to halt the viral spread may have actually helped is debatable.

Initial delay in reporting the disease:

• It is believed that China, given its capabilities, could have contained the spread with very little effort and resources had it been transparent and acted on time.
• China did not apply the lessons it learnt from the SARS outbreak despite strident global criticism.
  • Downplaying and being secretive about public health issues, particularly novel virus outbreaks, as it found out during SARS, and then now, can be very counterproductive.
  • This is in contrast to the way Kerala handled the Nipah virus outbreaks in 2018-19.
  • Transparency and timely action helped the State contain the outbreaks within days, with few cases and deaths in 2018. Read more on this topic covered in the Editorial segment in the 15^th February 2020 Comprehensive News Analysis.
• There is an eerie similarity between China’s SARS outbreak response in 2002-03 and the current epidemic.
  • If, during SARS, it initially withheld information and delayed by three months reporting it to WHO, in the case of COVID-19 it systematically downplayed its scale for nearly six weeks after pneumonia cases of unknown cause were first seen.
  • Shockingly, even as it reported the case cluster to WHO, and the wet market, thought to be the outbreak hotspot, was closed, people were kept in the dark.
  • Eight doctors who sounded an early alarm were detained for spreading rumours.
  • Ironically, even as about 900 patients presented with symptoms each day by late December 2019, as a daily reported, official numbers stayed the same.
  • WHO was informed of only limited human spread, thus putting more people at infection risk.
  • It took a Chinese epidemiologist’s revelation about the outbreak’s severity for Wuhan to start acting decisively.

The lesson is that in the event of an outbreak, secrecy is a killer and transparency the saviour.

Category: DEFENCE

1. The missing piece in India’s defence jigsaw puzzle

Context:

The geopolitical period is perhaps believed to be the most troubled since the final decades of the 20th century. Hence, there exists a vital need to adopt the right strategic choices.

• Despite India occupying the fourth place in military expenditure across the world (2018 data), behind the U.S., China, and Saudi Arabia, it does not mean that it has no further need to increase its stock of state-of-the-art weapons.
• What is needed is a sober reflection and a cost-benefit analysis, to ensure that the amounts expended are in tune with the country’s strategic requirements.

Opportune moment:

• With several defence deals in the pipeline, it is an opportune moment for India to undertake a cost-benefit analysis.
  • The first lot of Rafale fighter jets are expected shortly.
  • The final deal on the 200 Kamov Ka-226 light utility helicopters from Russia is in advanced stages.
  • In October 2018, India and Russia had signed a $5.4-billion mega deal for the S-400 Triumf Air Defence System.
  • Under contemplation today are yet another set of high-value U.S. defence deals, including additional purchases of P-8I Maritime Reconnaissance Aircraft and Apache Attack Helicopters.
  • According to estimates, the total worth of defence equipment purchased from the U.S. alone since 2007 is in the region of $17-billion.
• On the eve of U.S President Donald Trump’s visit to India, a further spurt in defence purchases is anticipated. For more details, refer to the 19^th February Comprehensive News Analysis.

Pakistan, China threats:

• It is essential for India to enhance its defence preparedness, given India’s rising global profile, and two major adversaries on its borders.
• India lacks a well-considered and clearly articulated white paper on India’s defence needs that sets out its strategic concerns, how it is positioning itself to meet these challenges, and the putative costs of meeting the country’s defence needs.
• The country requires a well-formulated defence white paper, putting the different threats and dangers the nation faces in perspective, alongside steps taken to meet these challenges.
  • Pakistan: A great deal of effort is called for to explain to the public, the true nature of the threat posed by Pakistan, and why India is so confident of easily defeating Pakistan, even if a “weaker” Pakistan possesses “nuclear teeth”.
  • China: Meeting the military, strategic and economic challenges from China is an entirely different matter. Explaining the nature of the threat posed by China to India is a complex task that needs to be undertaken with care and caution.