15 Jul 2020: UPSC Exam Comprehensive News Analysis

E. Editorials

Category: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

1. The stand-off and China’s India policy dilemma

Context:

• India China relations.

Background:

• The violent face-off between Chinese and Indian troops at the Line of Actual Control (LAC), causing casualties on both sides has dealt a severe blow to the bilateral relationship between the two countries.
• There have been growing calls domestically in India to reset its ties with China. The development has also led to intense debate and discussions in China.

Details:

• There have been two dominant views in China post the Galwan Valley incident. While one view argues that China’s assertiveness attitude vis-a-vis India is the right way forward for China, another view notes the serious concerns associated with the present Chinese policy with respect to India.

Apt Chinese policy:

Border issue:

• One view is that the present conflict along the LAC is not unexpected given the strain in the relation between the two countries. There seems to be no possibility of a negotiated settlement of the border dispute any time soon and the earlier system of effective management of bilateral differences has been ineffective.
• This view blames India for its strategy on the China-India border based on its unending infrastructure arms race at the LAC and argues that China had to take a hard stand with India. Periodic violent conflicts along the LAC might be the “new normal” in China-India ties.

Current international situation:

• The key argument of this school of thought is that China-India relations hold no great prospect in the current international situation. Opportunities for cooperation at the global level have been diminishing and regional competition has been intensifying.

Quasi ally of the U.S.:

• The proponents of this view argue that China should reconsider its prevalent strategic thinking that India is not its main strategic challenge and that the U.S. is the main conundrum for China.
• They claim that through an assertive stand along the western frontier, China can effectively deter its adversaries on the eastern coast. India is viewed as an ally of the U.S. and targeting India can send out a message to the U.S.

India as a competitor:

• Chinese hardliners view India as a competitor and challenger to China’s rise to global dominance and suggest a hard stand with respect to India.
• This view argues to keep India distracted by destabilizing the entire border region from the McMahon Line in the east to the Aksai Chin area in the west and to weaken India internally, by supporting the cause of Maoists, Naga separatists and Kashmiris.

Keeping India under pressure:

• The proponents of this view claim that a hard stand will not damage China-India relations but on the contrary, it will make it more stable. The constant pressure on India could help force on India a political settlement which will involve India re-orienting its policies to suit the pattern of Chinese global policies.
• They quote the 1962 China-India war example which helped China to maintain peace and stability on the western front for a long time and directly eliminate American and Soviet ambitions to use India to contain China.

Wrong move by China:

• Many Chinese political thinkers and professors in their analysis of the Galwan Valley incident have been critical about China’s policies towards India, which they claim have no clear strategic intent and actually harm China’s interests.

India as a rising power:

• This view recognizes India as a rising power and suggests maintaining cordial relations with India. This bilateral relation would become increasingly crucial in the future, with China-India relations evolving as the most important pair of relations after China-U.S. links.

Avoiding isolation:

• Strained China-India ties might lead to a situation where India alone or in association with other countries may cause trouble for China.
  • For instance, a hostile India will use every possible means to prevent China from reaching the Indian Ocean.
  • The decoupling of China-India relations will further strengthen the “anti-China alliance” between the U.S., Japan, Australia, Vietnam, Indonesia and other countries, who will actively take the initiative to reshape global industrial chains, use the Indo-Pacific Strategy to check and balance China’s military and economic power, and expand international organizations such as the G-7 to weaken China’s influence in international affairs.

Military strength:

• The general view among some military analysts in China is that if China has an advantage in terms of psychology, equipment, and logistics mobilization, India too has advantages on various fronts such as deployment, supply line, practical war experience, topography, and climate among others. They view India as a big country with comparable military strength.
• They argue that if the conflict ends in a short period of time, it will benefit China. But if it is prolonged, China will be disadvantaged.
• Then there is the high possibility of the U.S. and its allies helping India militarily.

Timing of the move:

• This view notes that strategically too, it would be unwise for China to get into a comprehensive military conflict with India at this point in time and notes that it is still not the time to ‘resolve’ the India problem. Instead, China, for now, should strive to maintain basic peace and stability at the borders.
• China should focus on building its own strength and simultaneously carry out its strategy of weakening India internally by leveraging its social and political differences, completing its strategic encirclement, improving troop deployment in the Tibet region to secure the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and stationing Chinese troops in the Gwadar Port (Arabian Sea), so as to secure China’s Indian Ocean sea routes, among other interests.
• China should aim at attaining a comprehensive and overwhelming advantage in geopolitics vis-à-vis India, which cannot be altered by war.

Conclusion:

• Despite all the jingoism and rhetoric propagated through its official media, China is actually in a serious dilemma over its India policy.
• As India seeks to reset ties with China in the post-Galwan era, India should take note of the many internal contradictions and perceived vulnerabilities vis-à-vis India, and leverage the same to India’s benefit.

2. Lost opportunity

Context:

• Chabahar port development project.

Background:

• The Chabahar port project was signed between India and Iran in 2003.
• The current administration had fast-tracked plans for the project, and in 2016, the Indian Prime Minister was in Tehran to sign a trilateral trade and transit agreement with the Iranian President and the Afghanistan President.
• According to the MoUs, India would be granted a 10-year lease to develop and operate two terminals and five berths, access to the Chabahar free trade zone, and the opportunity to build the 628 km rail line from Chabahar to Zahedan, just across the border from Afghanistan.
• India has acted quickly to develop Chabahar port facilities and has used the facilities to export to Afghanistan.

Details:

• The proposed rail line from Chabahar to Zahedan has not taken off for a number of reasons.
  • Iran has made many changes to the contract, which is deemed against India’s interest.
  • There has been a delay from India’s side despite a commitment from state-owned IRCON.
    • Ircon International Limited, formerly Indian Railway Construction Limited, is an engineering and construction organization, specialized in transport infrastructure.
  • There has been a fear of American penalties on transactions with Iran. Even though India was able to negotiate a sanctions waiver for the Chabahar port and the rail line from the U.S., very few international construction and equipment partners were willing to sign on to the project.
• Recently, Iran has begun laying tracks for the line connecting Chabahar to Afghanistan and Turkmenistan.

For more information on this issue, refer to:

CNA dated July 14, 2020

Concerns:

Loss for India:

• Regardless of the reasons for India’s inability to join the railway project, the current development would amount to an opportunity lost for India.

Questions on autonomy:

• The impression that India withdrew due to U.S. pressure, especially after India cancelled oil imports from Iran, also questions India’s commitment to strategic autonomy.

Strategic advantage to China:

• This development comes at a time when an imminent deal with China for a 25-year, $400 billion strategic partnership on infrastructure, connectivity and energy projects is on the tables. India’s loss could well become China’s gain of strategic influence in Iran and the larger West Asian region.

For more information on this topic, refer to:

CNA dated July 14, 2020