01 Sep 2021: UPSC Exam Comprehensive News Analysis

A. GS 1 Related

Category: GEOGRAPHY

1. IMD forecast foiled by 24% rain shortfall

Context:

• Below forecast monsoon rainfall for August month.

Background:

Forecast of a normal monsoon:

• In June, the IMD, as part of its pre-monsoon forecast, said that rainfall in northwest, south, east and central India would be “normal”.
  • IMD calls a monsoon season normal when the total amount of rainfall in the country between June and September is within 10 per cent (plus or minus) of the Long Period Average (LPA).
  • LPA is the average rainfall recorded over India between 1961 and 2010 and is considered the normal rainfall. Its value is 88 cm of rainfall.
  • ‘Deficit rainfall’ is when it drops below the margin of 10 per cent of the average. ‘Excess rainfall’ is when it exceeds the average by more than 10 per cent.
• This forecast was based on the existence of “neutral conditions” in the central Pacific and the Indian Ocean.

For more information on this topic, refer to the following article:

UPSC Comprehensive News Analysis of 2nd June 2021

• Even Skymet, a private weather forecasting company, had forecasted normal monsoons.

Details:

• India has experienced a 24% shortfall in monsoon rains for the month of August, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
  • August normally receives the second-highest rainfall in the four monsoon months of June-September.
• The high deficit in the month of August has brought India’s overall monsoon rainfall deficit to 9%, just a percentage-point shy of what would be considered “deficient” rainfall.
• The monsoon forecast of the IMD has been significantly off the mark.

Possible contributive factors for the low rainfall:

Large Monsoon break:

• The key reason for the August monsoon failure has been an extended break in rainfall for about 10 days.
  • During July and August, there are certain periods when the monsoons become weak. Rainfall practically ceases over the country outside the Himalayan belt and southeast peninsula. This is known as a break in the monsoon.
  • The middle of August is most prone to ‘breaks’ and that too long breaks.

For more related information, refer to the following article:

UPSC Comprehensive News Analysis of 19th Aug 2021

Lack of depressions:

• Wind-bearing depressions in the Bay of Bengal, coupled with moisture from the Arabian Sea, usually result in high rainfall over central India. But this did not happen this year resulting in a large deficit in the Central Indian region.
  • A depression is an area of low pressure that helps pull in the surrounding air.

Effect of global warming:

• Some meteorologists have argued that the large effects of global warming adversely impact monsoon rainfall.
• They have argued that global warming was leading to a decline in the number of rain-bearing depressions in the Bay of Bengal and was also contributing to erratic pre-monsoon cyclones which could possibly alter heat distribution patterns over the landmass, influencing moisture distribution and thereby cause erratic rainfall.

B. GS 2 Related

Category: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

1. UNSC resolution addresses ‘key concerns’ on Afghanistan: India

Context:

• India-led United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2593 on the Afghanistan issue.

Details:

• The resolution calls on the Taliban to keep their commitments on preventing terror groups in Afghanistan. The resolution demands that Afghan territory should not be used to threaten or attack any country or to shelter and train terrorists and plan or finance terrorist attacks.
• The resolution also urges the Taliban to assist in the safe evacuations of all Afghan nationals wishing to leave the country.
• Another important clause regarding the freezing of Afghan financial assets was not included in the final resolution document.
  • Countries like France and the U.K. had proposed freezing of Afghan financial assets in a bid to gain some leverage over the Taliban to agree to the agreed terms of the Doha Peace agreement.

Divided P5:

• While the three permanent members of the UNSC – France, the U.K. and the U.S. supported the resolution, the other two members – Russia and China abstained from voting on the resolution.
  • Russia and China argued for the inclusion of all terrorist groups, especially the Islamic State and the Uighur East Turkestan Islamic Movement to be named in the resolution.
• With the P5 members divided, India played an ‘active role’ to ensure the resolution went through.

India’s perspective:

• The Government of India has said it was satisfied with the resolution given that it addressed India’s key concerns on Afghanistan which includes the short term aim of ensuring the safe evacuation of Indian nationals and also those of Afghan nationals seeking refuge in India and the long term aim of ensuring that Afghanistan does not become a safe haven for anti-India terrorist organizations.
  • The resolution mentions individuals designated by Resolution 1267, (which includes the anti-India terror groups- Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Jaish-e-Mohammad).

Conclusion:

• Despite some differences over the adopted resolution, neither Russia nor China vetoed the resolution.
• The adoption of the resolution is a strong signal from the Security Council and the international community on its expectations in respect of Afghanistan.

Additional information:

• The upcoming SCO summit is scheduled to be held in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.
• Quad summit including India, U.S., Australia and Japan is scheduled to be held in Washington.

C. GS 3 Related

Category: ECONOMY

1. Economy grows 20.1% in Q1, lags pre-pandemic level

Context:

• Economic statistics for the first quarter of the current fiscal (April to June period), released by the National Statistical Office (NSO).

Details:

• India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has grown by 20.1%, while the Gross Value Added (GVA) in the economy has risen by 18.8% in the first quarter of 2021-22.
  • Manufacturing and construction have been the key drivers in GVA growth and the higher private consumption and investment have helped in impressive GDP performance.
• GVA from agriculture, forestry and fishing, the only sector to grow amid last year’s national lockdown, has registered an impressive 4.5% growth in Q1 2021-22 too.

Concerns:

• Despite the government’s claim of the impressive GDP and GVA numbers of the Q1 2021-22 being indicative of a V-shaped economic recovery, eminent economists have cautioned about reading too much into the record quarterly growth.
  • A V-shaped recovery is a term that describes a period of economic decline (recession) and recovery that resembles a V shape. In the case of a V-shaped recovery, an economy suffers a sharp decline for a short period and then a sharp rise to its previous status.

Below pre-pandemic levels:

• Though the GDP and GVA have registered a notable rise, they are lower than their contraction observed during the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal.
  • Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services, which have registered impressive growth numbers are the only other sectors along with agriculture, forestry and fishing, to recover beyond the pre-pandemic levels of 2019-20.
• This implies that the economic activity has remained well below the pre-pandemic levels, owing to the second wave of COVID-19, indicating that the economy still has some way to go before it returns to activity levels prevalent prior to the pandemic.

Consumption pattern:

• The share of consumption expenditure in GDP has been low this time which indicates that the second wave and lockdowns impacted households more than the first wave. This does not augur well for the economic recovery process.
• Low incomes lead to low disposable income in the hands of the general populace. This in turn will lead to depressed demand in the economy which will invariably impact the economic recovery process.

Base effect:

• The growth rates in 2021-22 in some cases are unduly high due to the low base. This could be analytically misleading.
  • Construction and Manufacturing GVA recorded a 68.3% and 49.6% increase between April and June this year.

• Eminent economists have pointed out that the low base of last year’s stringent nationwide lockdown has ended up concealing the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 on the economy.

• Economic growth rates in the next three quarters would be progressively lower with the base effect wearing off.

Highly impacted sectors still struggling:

• Despite impressive growth numbers in employment- and contact-intensive services sector like Hotels, Transport, their absolute contribution continues to be substantially below 2019-20 levels.

Subdued government expenditure:

• The government final consumption expenditure (GFCE) has contracted by 4.8% in Q1 2021-22.
• Also, there has been a substantial decline in public capital and revenue spending in July 2021.
• This is indicative of the government’s fiscal prudence attitude in order to contain the fiscal deficit even during a time when major economies have relied on large fiscal stimulus to revive their economies.

For more related information, refer to the following article:

UPSC Comprehensive News Analysis of 24th Aug 2021

Chief Economic Advisor’s take on the state of Indian economy:

• As per the Chief Economic Advisor, growth for the full year is likely to remain around 11% as projected by the Economic Survey.
• India is poised for stronger growth, driven by structural reforms, the government’s push for capital expenditure to enable private investment and a rapid COVID-19 vaccination drive.

D. GS 4 Related

Nothing here for today!!!

F. Prelims Facts

1. China opens first road-rail transport link to Indian Ocean

• China has conducted a “test cargo” through what is being called the China-Myanmar New Passage.
  • The railway line extends from the Myanmar border to the key commercial hub of Chengdu in western China.

Image source: The Hindu

• This passage connects the logistics lines of Singapore, Myanmar and China, and is currently the most convenient land and sea channel linking the Indian Ocean with southwest China. Thus the new railway line provides China with a new road-rail transportation channel to the Indian Ocean.
• Chinese planners have also looked at the Gwadar port in Pakistan as another key outlet to the Indian Ocean that will bypass the Malacca Straits. Gwadar is being developed as part of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

G. Tidbits

1. ‘Govt. to make flexible engine mandatory’

• The Union Minister for Road Transport & Highways has stated that India will make it mandatory for auto manufacturers to offer vehicles capable of running even on 100% biofuels in the next six months.
• Such a measure will provide an impetus to large scale adoption of biofuels in the transport sector which would not only be less environmentally polluting but also help save valuable forex and improve India’s fuel security in the long run and also provide an impetus to economic growth in the farm sector.
• Such a move will be cost-effective for end consumers given that a litre of bioethanol costs Rs. 65 as against Rs. 110 for petrol.

H. UPSC Prelims Practice Questions

Q.1 What best describes the term ‘low base effect’, with regard to GDP estimates?

1. Extremely low GDP growth than anticipated due to abnormal market conditions
2. A distortion in the GDP figures that results from abnormally low levels of growth in the corresponding period of the last year
3. The base year taken for GDP calculation by accounting for inflationary trends
4. None of the above

Q.2 Which of the following statements is/are incorrect?

1. The Supreme Court’s collegium has consistently provided for gender diversity and representation in its appointments to the higher judiciary.
2. Women’s representation in the judiciary is much better at the Supreme Court and High Courts as compared to lower district courts.
3. India has had a woman Chief Justice of India.

Options:

1. 1 only
2. 2 only
3. 3 only
4. 1, 2 and 3

Q.3 What is the role of the European Council, one of the principal organs of the European 
Union (EU)?

1. Provides political direction to the European Union
2. Acts as the legislature of the European Union
3. Pass legislations and exercise control over the budget of the EU
4. Settle legal disputes between EU member states

Q.4 India Meteorological Department (IMD) provides for which of the following early warning & 
forecasting services?

1. Monsoon forecast
2. Tropical cyclones
3. Dust storms
4. Heavy rains and snow
5. Cold and heat waves

Select the correct answer from the code given below:

1. 1 and 2 only
2. 1, 2 and 5 only
3. 1, 4 and 5 only
4. 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5

Q5. With reference to the Union Government consider the following statements. (UPSC-2015)

1. The Department of Revenue is responsible for the preparation of Union Budget that is presented to the parliament.
2. No amount can be withdrawn from the Consolidated Fund of India without the authorization of Parliament of India.
3. All the disbursements made from Public Account also need the authorization from the Parliament of India.

Which of the following statements given above is/are correct?

1. 1 and 2 only
2. 2 and 3 only
3. 2 only
4. 1, 2 and 3

I. UPSC Mains Practice Questions

1. The BRICS grouping was seen as a success up to a point but now it confronts multiple challenges. Examine the statement and offer suggestions to make the grouping better.  (15 marks, 250 words)[GS-2, International Relations]
2. How can traditional practices and community involvement promote sustainable use of natural resources? Illustrate with an example. (15 marks, 250 words)[GS-3, Environment and Ecology]