International Relations This Week: Episode 92

International relations is a very important segment of the UPSC syllabus. In this series, we present an analysis of the most important international issues and developments that occurred over the past week relevant for the IAS exam. In this article, you can learn more about the Rising Violence in Myanmar, Baltistan Issue, India- China Trade and Lula da Silva winning elections in Brazil.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Rajnath raises Gilgit- Baltistan Issue
2. Rising Violence in Myanmar
3. India- China Trade
4. Russia halts food grain shipments
5. Lula da Silva wins Brazil elections

1. Rajnath raises Gilgit- Baltistan Issue

Context:

• Recently, India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh stated that India has the goal to reclaim areas such as Gilgit and Baltistan in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) in accordance with a resolution passed unanimously in Parliament in 1994.
• The resolution called for full integration of Gilgit Baltistan into Indian territory.

Where is Gilgit Baltistan?

Historical background:

Before independence:

• Gilgit was part of the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, but it was ruled directly by the British, who had taken it on lease in 1935 from Raja Hari Singh given the strategic importance of the region. It was intended to act as a strategic buffer against the Soviet Union.
• The British had raised a small force called the Gilgit Scouts in the region. Its job was to guard Gilgit, ostensibly on behalf of the Maharaja, but its real purpose was to help the British administer the Gilgit Agency. 
• In August 1947, after the British returned Gilgit to Hari Singh, the Maharaja sent his representative, Brigadier Ghansar Singh, as Governor of Gilgit. 

Partition and aftermath:

• On October 22, 1947, with Raja Hari Singh dithering on accession to India, Pashtun tribal militiamen along with Pakistani forces poured into the Kashmir Valley and marched towards Srinagar in accordance with a plan known as Operation Gulmarg. 
• In this situation, Raja Hari Singh signed the Instrument of Accession with India on October 26, 1947. The Indian Army then landed in the Kashmir Valley and began an operation to push back the Pakistani invaders after the princely state became an integral part of India.
• In Gilgit meanwhile, a rebellion had broken out against Hari Singh. A local political outfit called the Revolutionary Council of Gilgit-Baltistan proclaimed the independent state of Gilgit Baltistan. 
• This group declared that it was acceding to Pakistan, which accepted the accession and announced that the region would be governed under the Frontier Crimes Regulation, a law that the British had promulgated to keep control over the restive tribal areas of the Northwest of the Empire. 
• The Gilgit Scouts, who were led by a British Major named William Alexander Brown, rose in rebellion. They took Gilgit Governor Ghansar Singh into protective custody and raised the Pakistani flag at its headquarters. 
• The Gilgit Scouts then moved to take over Baltistan, which was part of Ladakh at the time, and captured Skardu, Kargil, and Dras. Indian forces, however, took back Kargil and Dras. 
• Following the India-Pakistan ceasefire of January 1, 1949, Pakistan in April that year entered into an agreement with the “provisional government” of the so-called “Azad Jammu & Kashmir” — parts that had been occupied by Pakistani troops and irregulars — to take over its defence and foreign affairs. Under this agreement, the so-called “AJK” government also ceded the administration of Gilgit-Baltistan to Pakistan.

Current Status of Gilgit Baltistan:

• While Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir has its own constitution that sets out its powers and their limits vis-à-vis Pakistan, Gilgit-Baltistan has been ruled mostly by executive orders. 
• Until 2009, the region was simply called Northern Areas. It got its present name only with the Gilgit-Baltistan (Empowerment and Self-Governance) Order, 2009, which replaced the Northern Areas Legislative Council (NALC) with the Legislative Assembly. 
• The NALC was an elected body but had no more than an advisory role to the Minister for Kashmir Affairs and Northern Areas, who ruled from Islamabad. The Legislative Assembly is only a slight improvement. It has 24 directly elected members and nine nominated ones. 
• In 2018, the then-Pakistani government passed an order centralising even the limited powers granted to the Assembly, a move linked to the need for greater control over land and other resources for the infrastructure projects that were being planned under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). In 2020, the then Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan announced that his government would give the region “provisional provincial status” making it the fifth province of Pakistan. However, that has never happened.

India’s Position on Gilgit- Baltistan:

• India has argued that the entire former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir including areas of Gilgit Baltistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir belongs to India. 
• In this regard, India has objected to the plan to make Gilgit-Baltistan a province of Pakistan.

2. Rising Violence in Myanmar

Context: 

• ASEAN member countries have expressed concern over rising violence in Myanmar ahead of the ASEAN foreign ministers meeting (in Jakarta, Indonesia).

Background:

• Myanmar was a British colony which gained independence in 1948.
• The military took over control of Myanmar in the year 1962. There have been serious human rights and democratic rights violations during the military junta rule.
• In 1988, the National League for Democracy under Aung San Suu Kyi protested for democracy. The military severely retaliated against this democratic movement. This was followed by sanctions by the global community against military-ruled Myanmar.
• After 2010, several concessions were offered under pressure from sanctions. In 2015, full-fledged elections were allowed after which Aung San Suu Kyi came to power under NLD.
• However, the elections of 2020 led to many accusations by the military. Since then there has been a military coup in Myanmar. There have been reports of the Myanmar military using hard-hand tactics to suppress the protests for democracy.

Rising Violence in Myanmar – The Fallout on India:

• Myanmar is an important neighbour of India with a considerable land border length. The stability of Myanmar is essential for peace and security along India’s borders.
  • The Golden Triangle is a major source of illegal activities in the region.
  • Insurgent groups active in India seek refuge in Myanmar territory.
• For India, the main concern is the influx of refugees. 
  • Under a Free Movement Regime (FMR), citizens of the two countries living within 16 km on their sides of the border, can cross over with a permit and stay up to two weeks at a time. 
  • There remain ethnic and family ties across the international boundary. When people began pouring in from Chin State, the Home Ministry asked states in the region to act against “the illegal influx”. But Mizoram declared solidarity with the people of Myanmar and has continued to welcome the refugees. 
• The coup and resultant unrest have upended Indian projects in Myanmar such as the trilateral highway to Thailand, and the Kaladan waterway project. These projects were already well behind their deadlines, and their completion looks farther away now. This can adversely impact India’s investment and interests.

India’s stand:

• India has walked a fine line between expressing concern at the “interruption” of democracy and brutal steps such as the gunning down of protesters and execution of activists, and engaging with the junta to protect its “vital interests”.

3. India- China Trade

Context:

• India – China bilateral trade has continued to boom, crossing USD 100 billion for the second year in the first nine months of 2022. 
• In 2021, trade crossed $100 billion for the first time, reaching $125.6 billion. 

Concerns:

• India’s imports accounted for the bulk of the trade. According to available trade data, India’s trade deficit has climbed to over USD 75 billion. This growing imbalance in trade is becoming more and more unsustainable for India’s economic interests.
• This development also underlines India’s continued demand for Chinese machinery and intermediate goods, such as active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), despite long-running efforts to reduce reliance on China. The reliance on Chinese goods in some sectors is a major concern for India given that China has often used its economic might for strategic interests.
• There remains a mismatch of $12 billion in the trade data provided by India and China. Under-invoicing of shipments by Indian importers is believed to be the main reason behind the gap in figures. Underreporting is often done to evade taxes. This amounts to a loss of revenue for the Indian government.

4. Russia halts food grain shipments

Context:

• Russia has suspended the implementation of a U.N.-brokered grain export deal that has allowed more than 9 million tons of grain to be shipped from Ukraine through the Black Sea ports.
  • Russia suspended its participation in the agreement because of a drone attack on Russian naval ships in the port of Sevastopol.

Background:

Black Sea Grain Initiative:

• It was an agreement between Russia and Ukraine with Turkey and the United Nations (UN) made during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.
• The agreement created procedures to safely export grain from certain ports to attempt to address the food crisis caused due to supply chain disruptions caused by the war.
  • Ukraine and Russia are key global suppliers of wheat, barley, sunflower oil and other food to countries in Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia.

Concerns:

• This will increase the global food crisis due to disruption in supply chains. This will make food prices shoot up and lead to nutrition insecurity.
• This will mainly affect poor and developing countries in Africa which are already struggling with hunger. 

5. Lula da Silva wins Brazil elections

Context:

• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist leader, will return as the President of Brazil to serve an unprecedented third term. 
  • Lula was Brazil’s president for two terms from 2003 to 2006 and then from 2007 to 2011, during which period the country saw a massive commodities boom, which paid for sweeping social welfare programmes that are credited with having raised millions of people out of poverty. 

Significance of the development:

• Brazil has had to face mismanagement of the Covid-19 pandemic under the previous President Jair Bolsonaro. There was large-scale destruction of the Amazon rainforest. Also, over the past decade, Brazil’s economy has slowed down considerably. The new President with an emphasis on food and housing for the poor brings much-needed relief to the population. The previous Lula administration is known for its socio-economic initiatives.
• India has had excellent relations with Brazil under Lula. There were many visits from dignitaries on both sides. Hence his re-election has rekindled hopes of further improvement in the bilateral relations between the two countries.
• This also augurs well for coordination and cooperation between the two countries in multilateral platforms like BRICS, IBSA, etc.

International Relations This Week: Episode 92:-Download PDF Here

Read more International Relations This Week articles in the link.