05 Aug 2023: UPSC Exam Comprehensive News Analysis

B. GS 2 Related

Nothing here for today!!!

E. Editorials

Category: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

1. The lessons of Hiroshima must not drift away

Syllabus: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests

Prelims: Nuclear Deterrence, The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons
Mains: Nuclear Deterrence, The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, United Nations and role in disarmament

Context:

• Nuclear weapons were dropped on Hiroshima in August 1945. Experts consider that this moment has fundamentally changed the nature of war and weapons use. 

Deterrence

• Deterrence is a strategy designed to prevent aggression by making the adversary believe that the cost of an attack would be greater than any benefit it may bring. This is done by emphasizing the scale of the likely military response.
• In other words, deterrence is about convincing others that they will not be able to achieve their goals through aggression because the consequences will be too severe. 
• Deterrence can be achieved through a variety of means, such as the threat of nuclear retaliation, the deployment of large military forces, or the development of advanced military technology such as missile systems.
• While the development of nuclear warheads has increased, the taboo associated with it has also increased. Political scientist Nina Tannenwald has highlighted that nuclear weapons have not been used since the Hiroshima and Nagasaki incident because of a rise in global inhibition on using nuclear weapons. This inhibition is based on morality and the devastating potential of nuclear weapons. 
• In use, nuclear bombs do not discriminate between those in combat with non-combatants, the environmental damage done is massive, and their impact on generations of individuals such as genetic effects are also high. Hence these are ‘absolute weapons’ and their use is also considered a global problem. 
• However, these taboos have no legal status and are based on moral, humanitarian and philosophical inhibitions.

Are these moral notions and nuclear deterrence being tested? 

• In the recent Ukraine crisis, Russia has made several nuclear threats on the use of nuclear weapons. Russia has also ordered the realignment of nuclear forces for combat duty. 
• The threats have raised the possibility of nuclear Armageddon in Europe.
• Speculation about Russia using a tactical nuclear weapon has been on the rise due to the not-so-favourable outcomes of the Ukraine crisis. 
• Nations are trying to differentiate between conventional and tactical nuclear weapons to overcome the taboo. There is no consensus on what constitutes a tactical nuclear weapon which could be used on battlefields. 
• For example: The bomb that fell on Hiroshima was 15 kt (kiloton) while the U.S. has tactical weapons ranging from a fraction of 1 kt to 170 kt. So, even though these are called tactical weapons, the devastation caused might still be huge. 

Global response to this threat?

• The US has made it clear that any nuclear use would be met with a strong and commensurate response but did not specify that the response would be nuclear.
• The US also did not change its nuclear preparedness levels, hence avoiding fueling nuclear speculation in Europe.
• China has also called on the international community to oppose the use of or threats to use nuclear weapons.
• However, Russia’s movement of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus has shown that the nuclear threat in Europe is far from over. 

Also Read Nuclear Arms Control.

Way Ahead

• At the height of the Cold War, there were almost 70,000 nuclear weapons scattered around the world. The lessons from Hiroshima and some luck have prevented the use of nuclear weapons.
• The nuclear taboo cannot be an insurance policy by itself. Global efforts such as The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons should be given more teeth to ensure nations don’t use the threat of nuclear exchange to achieve their political ends.

Nut Graf: The use of nuclear weapons in Hiroshima has fundamentally changed the nature of war and weapons use. The taboo against using nuclear weapons has prevented their use since 1945, but this taboo is not legally binding and could be broken. The recent threats by Russia to use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine crisis have raised the possibility of nuclear Armageddon in Europe. The international community must work to strengthen the taboo against nuclear weapons and prevent their use.

2. America’s pursuit of Saudi-Israel rapprochement

Syllabus: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests

Prelims: Abraham Accords, OPEC +, NATO

Mains: India – West Asia relations, Implications of  Saudi – Israel rapprochement on India

Context:

• The United States has been working to bring together Saudi Arabia and Israel through quiet diplomacy. This could have significant implications for the regional balance of power and beyond.
• These discussions are also happening under challenging circumstances. Saudi Arabia was criticized by the US for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s efforts to increase Jewish settlements in the West Bank region and to reduce judicial independence in Israel have also been opposed by the US.

Change in West Asia?

• Since 1945, the US and Saudi Arabia have had an agreement in which the US would provide military protection to Saudi Arabia in return for oil and energy security. 
• However, the US’s efforts to sign the Iran nuclear deal (to contain the threat of Iran’s nuclearization) and its lack of consistent support for Saudi Arabia in its war efforts in Yemen have not gone well in Saudi Arabia.
• In response, Saudi Arabia has been diversifying its options, including reconciling with Iran with China’s mediation, cooperating with Russia on maintaining beneficial global oil prices, etc. 
• With the upcoming elections in the US, the Biden administration has been trying to persuade Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel and bring both Saudi Arabia and Israel under its sphere of influence.
• Saudi Arabia has asked for the same security guarantees as NATO members get from the US, access to advanced American weapons, permission to acquire the technology for civilian nuclear power and an Israeli commitment to a two-state solution (with Palestine).

Read more on Iran Nuclear Deal,

What are the motivations for this reconciliation?

• USA
  • The United States wants to re-establish its influence in the Middle East. 
  • China’s mediation has led to resumed diplomatic ties between Riyadh and Tehran as part of the historic Saudi-Iran deal. 
  • Russia, on the other hand, has also increased its presence due to the hostilities in Syria and Yemen. 
  • Possible reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Israel could help Mr. Biden to come back to power in the upcoming elections.
• Saudi Arabia
• • Saudi Arabia wants to emerge as a powerful regional player. 
  • The United Arab Emirates has already initiated reconciliation efforts with Israel as part of the Abraham Accords. Saudi Arabia’s reconciliation with Israel will help to shape West Asian politics from within. 
  • Saudi Arabia also wants to balance its reconciliation with Iran and Syria by diplomatic ties with Israel. This will convey that Saudi Arabia will stand by its national interest by all possible means. This could also increase access to crucial advanced technology from Israel in the future.
• Israel
• • Israel wants to be accepted as a legitimate state by the Muslim world in West Asia.
  •  It would also give Israel direct access to Asia, which would help deepen the economic ties with this region.

Implications for the Global Order

• Due to the Israel-Palestine conflict, countries such as Pakistan and Indonesia have not been open to relations with Israel. This could change. 
• It could also deepen the polarization of the Palestinian cause. Countries such as Iran and Syria, along with other actors such as Hamas and Hezbollah, could radicalize the issue, leading to violence.
• India’s deepening of ties with Israel was in question due to the balancing act with countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The reconciliation efforts might lead to further engagement between India and Israel. The US will also be supportive of this.

Also read India’s World: Iran deal: Implications for India.

Nut Graf: The United States is working to bring together Saudi Arabia and Israel in a bid to re-establish its influence in the Middle East. This could have significant implications for the regional balance of power, as well as the global order.