Sansad TV Perspective: Balloon Saga & US-China Relations

In the series Sansad TV Perspective, we bring you an analysis of the discussion featured on the insightful programme ‘Perspective’ on Sansad TV, on various important topics affecting India and also the world. This analysis will help you immensely for the IAS exam, especially the mains exam, where a well-rounded understanding of topics is a prerequisite for writing answers that fetch good marks.

In this article, we feature the discussion on the topic: Health of India’s Banking System

Anchor: Teena Jha

Guests:

1. Meera Shankar, Former Indian Ambassador to the United States of America
2. Srikanth Kondapalli, Professor, Centre for East Asian Studies, SIS, JNU
3. Lt. Gen. Sanjay Kulkarni (Retd.), Defence & Strategy Expert

Context: Heightened tensions between the U.S. and China over the suspected spy balloon.

Highlights of the discussion:

• Introduction
• Background details and expert views
• Associated concerns
• U.S.-China relations
• Lessons and implications for India

Introduction:

• The U.S. military downed a suspected Chinese spy balloon over the Atlantic Ocean and launched a mission to recover all the equipment from its debris. 
• It drew a strong reaction from China, which insisted that the object was a civilian balloon intended for meteorological research. 
• Accusing the U.S. of indiscriminate use of force, China said it had seriously impacted and damaged efforts and progress in stabilizing Sino-U.S. relations. 

For more information on the incident, read here: CNA dated Feb 7, 2023: Puncturing ties

Details of using balloons for surveillance:

• Since World War II, the Japanese have used such kinds of balloons for combat operations. Even the Americans used them in the past against the Soviet Union.
• China has also used balloons extensively. It was sighted over Japan and the Andaman and Nicobar Joint Command Centre in 2022. It has also been deployed over Taiwan.
• Advantages of balloons in surveillance:
  • It has a low cost compared to deploying satellites for surveillance.
  • It can hover over the region for a comparatively longer time (two to three days), whereas a satellite has a very small window over a region.
  • They have a synthetic aperture radar implying that they can penetrate the clouds to gather information about the region.
  • They can also use artificial intelligence equipment in the balloon that will gather information, process it, and convey it back to the ground station in the home country.
  • They can also be used to test laser weapons for future use.
  • They can analyze various parameters like air movement, temperature, etc. at a professional and sustainable level. 
  • It is a reusable and retrievable means of surveillance.
  • It is difficult to detect spy balloons as they can fly over the normal civil aviation range.

Views on the entire saga of the Chinese spy balloon:

• China has condemned the act of the U.S. military and has termed it as an overreaction. 
• However, experts are of the view that it was very much a surveillance balloon and China has resorted to such activities in the wake of any important diplomatic visits (U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China in this case).
• Though the Chinese administration has claimed the balloon to be a civilian one, if the flight/path of the balloon is tracked, it can be seen that it was a well-planned one covering Alaska, Canada, and going deep into American air space.
• It is also one of the most cost-effective means of surveillance among various other surveillance like human intelligence, cyber intelligence, etc.
• Experts also suggest that the Chinese have a tendency of insecurity and thus want to use every possible way to verify the information gathered and the surveillance balloon is one such method to do so.
• It is also suggested that the spy balloon is another example where China is flexing its muscle beyond the region and trampling established rule-based order.

Associated concerns:

• Concerns for the United States
  • The balloon surveillance poses a national security challenge for the U.S.
  • It has repercussions for the Biden administration due to constant pressure from the Republicans that command the majority in the House of Representatives.
  • It will also impact the internal politics of the country, as China-related matters are gaining more traction with increasing competition between the two countries.
  • It is also associated with other dimensions like the military, economic, and technological competition with China.
• Concerns for China
  • China is already on the back foot due to the Russia-Ukraine War. And since the Pentagon has released an official statement highlighting China’s intention of surveillance through balloons, this can further isolate China in the global platform.  
• Geopolitics gets disturbed by deteriorating relations between the two superpowers.

The U.S. China relations:

• The relations between the two superpowers started deteriorating when the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022. China responded by violating the defence identification zones and maritime zones and even firing missiles that landed in Japanese waters.
• Both countries attempted to stabilize relations despite the strategic competition between the two. On the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali (November 2022), the leaders of China and the U.S. agreed to re-engage on select issues like climate change and the stabilization of the global economy.
• The spy balloon incident resulted in the cancellation of the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China. This has been a major setback in the process of stabilizing relations.
• China in the past few decades has changed its ideology and is challenging America’s leadership in the international world order.
• The U.S.-China competition will become much sharper in all domains like economy, technology, and military.

Lessons and implications for India:

• India, being closer to the U.S. and part of QUAD, needs to be cautious of China’s intentions.
• India-China relations are also at an all-time low, particularly after the Galwan clash. In this context, China can resort to low-cost options like using Pakistan against India.
• Spying through balloons is more challenging for India as a much larger region can be surveyed from the Chinese territory itself, especially in Ladakh, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh.
• China believes in dealing with India from a position of strength and India is experiencing this since the 1950s. India should thus use all the available resources at its disposal to deter China.
• India should focus on economic growth as a strong economy would result in a strong military and it would be easy to counter China.
• The military should be modernized along with tactical preparedness on the cybersecurity front.

For more information on India-China relations, read here: India – China Relations

Read all the previous Sansad TV Perspective articles in the link.

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