18 Nov 2020: UPSC Exam Comprehensive News Analysis

E. Editorials

Category: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

1. Fragile ceasefire

Context:

The war over Nagorno-Karabakh has come to a halt following a Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but only after altering the balance of power in the region.

Background:

This topic has been covered in 30^th September 2020 Comprehensive News Analysis.

Details:

• Even if the direct conflict was between Armenia and Azerbaijan, two bigger powers had high stakes — Russia and Turkey.
• While Turkey strongly supported Azerbaijan, reportedly with armed drones and military advisers, Russia, which has a security agreement with Armenia, tried to remain neutral.
• While Azerbaijan made military progress, Russia resisted calls to back Armenia and continued with its push to bring the conflict to an end, which it managed to do.
• Vladimir Putin is the only signatory to the agreement besides the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Way Forward:

• While Armenia was forced to pull back from several villages and Shusha, it avoided defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh.
• While the ceasefire has reinforced Russia’s influence in the region, the war itself pointed to its declining clout in the region.
• Turkey did not only help Azerbaijan fight a war against Moscow’s wishes but also made sure that the Azeris prevailed in the conflict.
• At present, there is a triumphant Azerbaijan, a wounded Armenia, a cautious Russia and an ambitious Turkey, with a fragile truce over an unresolved dispute.
• For peace to prevail, Armenia and Azerbaijan must find a lasting settlement to the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. The ceasefire in 1994 did not resolve the conflict. And unlike 1994, when Russia was the only big power, now, the South Caucasus is open for a contest between Russia and Turkey, which makes the crisis even more dangerous.

Read more on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the linked article.
Category: ECONOMY

1. Shifting sands for Asian economies

The editorial argues that India could face an uphill task in maintaining its viability against highly competitive countries in the post-pandemic world.

Post-pandemic global economy:

• Discussions on the near future of the global economy have often predicted that China’s appeal as a business destination would fade, losing favour as the global manufacturing hub.
• Arguments have been made that production would be dispersed to Asia and even to those outside.
• It was expected that the relocation would benefit emerging labour-abundant economies.

However, while a few labour-intensive industries, such as textiles and apparel, have been moving to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka as labour costs in China are increasing, trends in other industries show that businesses have mostly remained in China.

China’s importance:

• An expert points out that the combination of the trade war and the COVID-19 crisis has resulted in firms establishing relatively small-scale operations elsewhere. This is perceived as a buffer against being completely dependent on China, referred to as the ‘China +1’ strategy.
• There are three reasons for firms to remain in China and pursue this strategy:
  • Starting an enterprise and maintaining operations in China are much easier than elsewhere.
  • Chinese firms are nimble and fast (evident from the quick recovery of Chinese manufacturing after the lockdown).
  • Many global companies have spent decades building supply chains in China.
• Hence, getting out would mean moving the entire ecosystem, which involves time and expenditure. This strategy of global firms has led to an intensification of competition among Asian economies to be that ‘plus one’ in the emerging manufacturing landscape.

Growth in Asia:

• In 1968, Swedish Nobel laureate Gunnar Myrdal published ‘Asian Drama – An Inquiry into the Poverty of Nations’, (focusing on South and Southeast Asia).
• This was pessimistic about the development prospects in the region. Half a century later, there has been remarkable growth in the very region with openness and exploding trade.
• These newly industrialised economies scaled up their exports, while raising their own levels of living.

Predictions about the post-pandemic global economy:

• The Asia region is expected to see remarkable growth with the formal launch of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
• Its growth would depend on the role of trade and investment flows into these economies, and this would again be the centrepiece of global growth.
  • The 15 RCEP member countries account for nearly 30% of the global GDP.
  • This largest free trade agreement in the world includes provisions to cover the entire gamut of trade and commerce.

Challenges facing India and way forward:

The RCEP and the ‘China +1 strategy’ are likely to impact investment flows into Vietnam, India, Bangladesh and Indonesia, which have emerged as key investment destinations.

Increasing public investments:

• Private investments would continue to be depressed, due to the uncertainty on the future economic outlook. This calls for high-quality public investments.
  • Domestic public investments have a central role in economic activity, for both the demand and supply sides.
  • According to the IMF, “increasing public investment by 1% of GDP could boost GDP by 2.7%, private investment by 10%, and employment by 1.2%, if investments are of high quality and if existing public and private debt burdens do not weaken the response of the private sector.”
  • It is an opportune time for India to bolster public investments as interest rates are low globally and savings are available.

Overhaul in trade policy:

• There is a need for a major overhaul in India’s trade policy. The challenge is to make the exporting activity more attractive for all firms in the economy.
• In the pre-COVID-19 era, world trade had been rattled by tendencies of rising economic nationalism and unilateralism leading to the return of protectionist policies.
• A revamped trade policy needs to take into cognisance the possibility of two effects of the RCEP: the ‘Walmart effect’ and a ‘switching effect’.
  • Walmart Effect would sustain demand for basic products and help in keeping employee productivity at an optimum level, but may also reduce wages and competition due to sourcing from multiple vendors at competitive rates.
  • Switching effects would be an outcome of developed economies scouting for new sources to fulfil import demands, which requires firms to be nimble and competitive.
• Trade policy has to recognise the pitfalls of the present two-track mode, one for firms operating in the ‘free trade enclaves’ and another for the rest.
• A major fallout of this ‘policy dualism’ is the dampening of export diversification.

Increasing women’s participation in the workforce:

• In India, three out of four Indian women are neither working nor seeking paid work.
• Globally, India ranks among the bottom ten countries in terms of women’s workforce participation.
• While India’s GDP has grown by around 6% to 7% per year on an average in recent years, educational levels of women have risen, and fertility rates have fallen, women’s labour force participation rate has fallen from 42.7% in 2004–05 to 23.3% in 2017–18.
• India could gain hugely if barriers to women’s participation in the workforce are removed.
• The manufacturing sector should consciously create labour-intensive jobs that rural and semi-urban women are qualified for.

Conclusion:

• The intensity of competition is evident from the fact that after India passed three labour code bills, the Indonesian Parliament passed legislation slashing regulations, to open up the country to more foreign investment, Bangladesh on its part plans to start negotiations with a dozen countries, including the U.S. and Canada, for signing preferential trade agreements.
• India’s approach to the changed scenario needs to be well-calibrated.

Category: HEALTH

1. Shot in the arm

Context:

Moderna, a U.S.-based biotechnology firm, has indicated promising results from human trials (phase 3) of its m-RNA vaccine – a potential COVID-19 vaccine. The development follows the announcement of promising results from its ongoing phase-3 trial by Pfizer.

This topic has been covered in the 12^th November 2020 Comprehensive News analysis.

m-RNA class of vaccines:

• The m-RNA class of vaccines is a synthetic construction of a piece of genetic machinery that viruses need to replicate.
• There are twin advantages of this class of vaccines.
  • No physical part of a virus is introduced, reducing the odds of adverse reactions.
  • The number of doses can be quickly scaled up as they do not need mammalian cells.
• The cons are that:
  • Such vaccines have never been commercially produced.
  • They require sub-zero refrigeration facilities, which is a rarity in most of the world.

This topic has been covered in the 11^th November 2020 Comprehensive News Analysis.

Category: POLITY AND GOVERNANCE

1. Constitutional fault lines

Context:

The Governor of Tamil Nadu has continued to withhold his decision on an application seeking pardon by one of the seven prisoners convicted in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case.

Read more on this topic covered in 4^th November 2020 Comprehensive News Analysis.

Background:

• In September 2018, the Supreme Court (SC) had observed, while hearing a connected writ petition, that the Governor should take a decision.
• A subsequent resolution passed by the Council of Ministers in favour of releasing all seven prisoners had rendered the matter accomplished.
• The inaction by the Governor now has given rise to constitutional fault lines within the executive arm of the government.

Details:

• A five-judge Bench of the Supreme Court in Maru Ram v. Union of India held that the pardoning power “under Articles 72 and 161 of the Constitution can be exercised by the Central and the State Governments, not by the President or Governor on their own.”
• In that case, Justice V.R. Krishna Iyer reiterated that the “advice of the appropriate Government binds the Head of the State”.
• Therefore, a Governor is neither expected nor is empowered, to test the constitutionality of the order or resolution presented to him/her. That is a power reserved exclusively for constitutional courts of the country.

Past judgments:

• Only recently, the Supreme Court had examined the inordinate delay by constitutional authorities (the President and the Governor) in taking decisions on mercy petitions.
• The Supreme Court, in the case of Shatrugan Chouhan v. Union of India, laid down the principle of “presumption of dehumanising effect of such delay”.
  • Taking cognisance of undue delay in the cases of the petitioners who were incarcerated prisoners, the Supreme Court confirmed that the due process guaranteed under Article 21 was available to each and every prisoner “till his last breath”.
  • The Supreme Court exercised its powers under Article 32 of the Constitution to commute the death sentences of 15 convicts. By doing so, it essentially interfered when an inordinate delay to perform a constitutional function was brought to its notice.
• Also, the SC has clarified that constitutional functionaries are not exempt from judicial scrutiny.
• In the recent case of Keisham Meghachandra Singh v. Hon’ble Speaker (2020), the Supreme Court was asked to examine the Speaker’s inaction with regard to disqualification proceedings.
  • The apex court confirmed its view that the “failure on the part of the Speaker to decide the application seeking a disqualification cannot be said to be merely in the realm of procedure” and that it “goes against the very constitutional scheme of adjudication contemplated by the Tenth Schedule”.
  • Breaking years of convention, the SC, issued a judicial direction to the Speaker to decide the disqualification petitions within a period of four weeks.

Conclusion:

It is argued that in this case, there has been a substantial delay at the hands of the Governor and the delay calls for the immediate interference of the Supreme Court.

Read more on the pardoning power of the Governor in the linked article.

Q1. Sri Lanka has handed a 99-year lease to China for which of these ports?

Q2. Brus/Reangs are recognised as Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Groups in which of these 
state/s?

Q3. Consider the following statements with respect to the International Atomic Energy 
Agency (IAEA):

Q4. Consider the following statements: