International Relations This Week: Episode 82

International relations is a very important segment of the UPSC syllabus. In this series, we present an analysis of the most important international issues and developments that occurred over the past week relevant for the IAS exam. In this article, you can learn more about the assassination of Shinzo Abe as well as the developments in Sri Lanka, Israel and Iran.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Assassination of Shinzo Abe
2. Developments in Sri Lanka
3. Developments in Iran
4. Developments in Israel

1. Assassination of Shinzo Abe

Details

• The assassination of public leaders has been seen from the time of Julius Ceasar.
• The assassination of leaders has not been limited to just developing countries, it has also been seen in developed countries like the U.S.
• The tragic assassination of Shinzo Abe who was the former Prime Minister of Japan has raised various questions which include:
  • The legacy of Shizo Abe
  • Future of Japan
  • The performance of the current government

Legacy of Shinzo Abe

• Shinzo Abe has been the longest-serving PM of Japan since the Second World War.
• Following the devastation caused to Japan after World War II, the country accepted non-violence, neutrality and US-imposed pacifism as a constitutional mandate.

• Shinzo Abe began reforming Japan’s strategic outlook and preparedness to deal with threats.
• Shinzo Abe was hugely popular for launching his “Abenomics” policies to lift the Japanese economy out of deflation.

Impact on India

• India-Japan relations flourished and underwent an unprecedented shift during Abe’s leadership.
  • Investments worth billions of dollars came into India.
  • India came to know about the geo-strategic significance of the Malacca Strait under Abe’s leadership.
  • The Japanese Overseas Development Agency has funded the development of bridges, metros, highways, and major corridors between various cities.
• He was also one of the first proponents of QUAD-like groupings in the Indo-Pacific region.
• It is to be seen if Japan will be able to continue to play an important role in international affairs as it did under the leadership of Abe.
• Further, in case of a domestic political crisis in Japan after the assassination of Abe, Japan would not be capable of funding developments in friendly countries like India.

2. Developments in Sri Lanka

Context

Gotabaya Rajapaksa officially resigned as Sri Lanka’s President after the protesters stormed the Presidential Secretariat and official houses of the President and Prime Minister.

Impact of the demonstrations

• These new demonstrations were part of the “Gota go home” protests.
• The Parliamentary Speaker said that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa will step down from office.
• The PM Ranil Wickremesinghe also said that he would resign and facilitate an “all-party government”.
• These moves are said to be critical for the country’s stability as the task of forming an all-party government would be challenging as the Sri Lankan Opposition is fragmented and does not have a parliamentary majority.
• Further, a change in the leadership of the country will not mitigate its economic crisis but instead will aggravate the situation as the IMF may take more time to assess the stability of the new government and also the bilateral lenders might be skeptical about lending money to the country.
• The tourism industry which accounts for a significant percentage of GDP of the country is also severely impacted.
• The economic situation in the country has worsened to that extent where perhaps a military rule or imposition of an emergency can only restore the situation.

Recommendations for India

• With harsh previous experiences, experts feel that India should be very careful in dealing with the situation in Sri Lanka.
• India must also ensure that China does not exploit the situation.
• India must be generous in terms of monetary assistance and should follow the principle of non-reciprocity (aid without imposing any conditions and without expecting anything in return).
• India should also look to extend assistance in the form of food, medicines, and energy which are critical to run the country.

Read more about – Opportunities for India: CNA June 22, 2022

3. Developments in Iran

Context

A fresh round of negotiations held to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) failed.

Significance of Iran in the region

• Iran shares land boundaries with major countries of the region such as Pakistan, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey and Iraq.
• With around 2,500 km of coastline, Iran also has maritime boundaries with countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman.
• These vast boundaries help create affinities as there are Iranian Persian speaking population and ethnic minorities on both sides of the border.
• In the last 50 years, Iran has been holding its fortress against the rest of the world.
• Iran has survived movements such as the Islamic Revolution, Iran-Iraq war, hostility with Israel and American sanctions.
• Iran is also an important oil producing and exporting country.
• The U.S. administration along with other P5 members and Germany signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear agreement with Iran in 2015.
  • However, in 2018, the U.S. administration decided to pull out of the JCPOA deal and reimposed sanctions on Iran.

Negotiations to revive JCPOA

The negotiations to revive JCPOA in Vienna failed because:

• Iran wants its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) removed from US ‘terror’ list.
• Israel has objected to the renewal of JCPOA and says that it would prove to be “very bad” for Israel.

Read more about Shadow war between Iran and Israel: CNA June 9, 2022

Way forward

• Iran has shown that it is resilient against American sanctions and has found a way to export its oil as China buys oil from Iran and with Chinese cooperation Iran is shipping oil to far off countries like Peru and Venezuela.
• It is important for the U.S. to revisit its sanction regime as it has been proved that Iran cannot be brought to its knees by imposing sanctions.
• Israel has followed a multi-directional approach which includes escalating the shadow war with Iran and seeking stronger security partnerships with other Gulf countries which would help Israel in case of a full-scale war.
  • However, these efforts of Israel have not stopped Iran from pursuing its nuclear programmes and are now close to developing grade-level weapons and advanced centrifuges.

Way forward for India

• Iran has been pushed more closely towards Russia and China in recent times especially post the Ukraine War.

• India must acknowledge Iran as a major power in the region and recalibrate its policies towards Iran and the Gulf region.
• India must also expedite its developmental activities in Iran like the development of the Chabahar port.
• Further, it is important that India does not view Iran through the lenses of the West and America.
  • India should look to build on its historical ties with Iran and recognise the significance of Iran in terms of providing India with the much-needed connectivity to the rest of the world.

4. Developments in Israel

Context

Dissolution of the coalition government in Israel.

Details

• The Prime Minister of Israel announced that he would be moving a bill to dissolve his coalition government just after a year of taking office.
• This has forced the conduct of the fifth election in four years.
• Yair Lapid who was the Foreign Minister has been designated as the caretaker Prime Minister until a new government is formed post the elections.

Latest developments

• The Israeli voters are said to be losing interest as they feel that no party is going to secure a majority which results in the formation of ineffective coalitions.
• The instability in the governance has had a severe consequence on the security of the state and the issue of rehabilitation of refugees.
• The demand for dividends of peace by the younger citizens has also been neglected.

Path ahead

• Yair Lapid is said to be a centrist and liberal and it is to be seen how a liberal or a central leader would handle the issue of Palestine in Israel.
• Despite being a tight security state with a great intelligence framework, security continues to be a cause of concern for the country.
• It is also to be seen if Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been alleged of large scale corruption and subverting the rule of law in the country, comes back to power.
• Israel has established strong ties with the Gulf and Arab countries and it is to be seen how the ties develop.

India and Israel relations and recommendations for India

• India and Israel relations have been friendly and cordial.
• Israel has been one of the important suppliers of arms and ammunition for India and India is looking forward to increased technology transfers from Israel in other sectors.
• India must follow a more balanced approach while dealing with the Israel-palestine or Israel-Iran issues.

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