11 Mar 2023: UPSC Exam Comprehensive News Analysis

E. Editorials

Category: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

1. Widening rift

Syllabus: GS2, Effect of policies and politics of developed world on India’s interest.

Mains: U.S.- China relations.

Details:

• The relations between China and the United States (U.S.) are at the lowest. It appears to be reaching a point of no return.
• During the annual session of the National People’s Congress or Parliament, Chinese President Xi Jinping told the parliamentary delegation that China was facing “unprecedented severe challenges to the country’s development” because “Western countries, guided by the U.S., have implemented containment and suppression of China”.
• Directly naming the U.S. reflects the deterioration of relations.
• Similarly, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang also said that the U.S. was seeking “to encircle China”. Moreover, he rejected U.S. claims of avoiding conflicts and confrontation and said that Washington wants to suppress Beijing.
• It should be noted that at the G20 summit in Indonesia (November 2022), both nations claimed to “responsibly manage” the competition. However, some of the events in the past few months do not reflect the same. For instance,
  • A scheduled visit of the U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken was cancelled due to the sighting of China’s “Spy Balloon” over the U.S.
  • Consequently, China slammed Washington to shoot down a “civilian meteorological airship”.

Also read: Chinese Spy Balloon Incident 2023 Explained for UPSC

Changing relationship between China and the United States:

• China is increasingly looking at the world through the prism of its all-encompassing U.S. rivalry.
• It is making peace with Europe and strengthening its relations with neighbouring countries.
• China has also planned a Central Asia Summit in 2023. It is also working on its strained relations with Japan.
• The U.S. is building its alliances and partnership in the Indo-Pacific region.

Concerns for India:

• India has very well managed the situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict by keeping “self-interest” at the fore. However, China poses a unique challenge due to the Line of Actual Control crisis.
• India faces continued pressure at its land borders, especially as China has severe objections to Quad.
• India should remain agile to exploit opportunities in an increasingly divided world with rising uncertainties and challenges.

Nut Graf: The United States and China relations are at an all-time low. The rift between the two has polarised the world and has created problems for India as well. India should carefully assess the situation and exploit every possible opportunity to strengthen its position in the world.

2. Challenging dogma

Syllabus: Bilateral, regional, and global groupings and agreements.

Mains: AUKUS and Nuclear Technology Transfer.

Prelims: AUKUS.

Details:

• An “optimal pathway” for AUKUS is likely to happen with implications for Australia to operate nuclear-powered submarines in the next decade.
• The Prime Minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese called it “the single biggest leap in defence capability in the history of the country”.
• However, there are concerns as even the most positive outcome of AUKUS has some drawbacks.
• One of the major concerns is that many regional countries like Indonesia oppose the Royal Australian Navy operating nuclear attack submarines. 
• Despite being a supporter of AUKUS, India also appears apprehensive about the submarines operating in the regional littorals.
• Canberra has attempted to address the concerns by explaining that AUKUS does not provide nuclear weapons capability and is rather meant for Australia to acquire nuclear maritime propulsion.
• Officials from Australia have also distinguished between AUKUS and Quad.
  • AUKUS is the security partnership between the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom. It is a technical arrangement.
  • Quad is a normative grouping that lays a vision for the region.

Also read: Quadrilateral Security Dialogue

Associated Concerns and Options for Australia:

• Despite the clarification provided, AUKUS is a military pact that has the potential to shape the strategic contours of maritime Asia.
• Three main options have emerged after consultation between AUKUS members:
  • The U.S. might build nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) for Australia. Australia is positive about this option but the U.S. officials seem sceptical as it would jeopardize America’s national security due to the vessels’ scarcity.
  • Another option is for the U.K. to expand its Astute-class programme to Australia. However, it has also some challenges:
    • If Australia acquires an Astute-class submarine, then integrating the onboard combat system would be difficult because of differences between the existing Australian and American fleets.
  • A trilateral option can be resorted to developing a new submarine design. The associated concerns with this option are:
    • The U.S. has a strict export control regime that can jeopardize the technology transfer agreement, specifically in sectors associated with undersea capabilities and electronic warfare.
    • To operationalize this option it is important to reform the U.S. export control regime which is very difficult in reality.

Lessons for India:

• It is observed that even with its closest allies (for eg. Australia) the U.S. faces difficulties in transferring technology.
• This is because of the rigid and archaic export control system. 
• Thus for India (which is not in the same league of partners as Australia), acquiring critical technology from the U.S. will remain a more daunting challenge.

Nuclear Technology Transfer:

• Nuclear technology transfer is difficult under the international system. For instance, Australia will be required to exploit the caveat that allows non-nuclear weapon countries to withdraw the fissile material required for submarine reactors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)-monitored stockpile.
• It is suggested that it will further set a dangerous precedent and allow potential proliferators to utilize naval reactors as a cover for developing nuclear weapons.
• It should be noted that acquiring nuclear propulsion technology is also very difficult for India as it is not a party to Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
• Moreover, the transfer of technology for high-enriched uranium (HEU) fuelled reactors to Australia from the U.S. and the U.K. would leave India with the only option to acquire a high-power reactor from France.
• The miniaturized low-enriched uranium (LEU) reactor core for SSNs in India has its own sets of limitations including fuel dependence.

Also read: Nuclear Arms Control – Non-Proliferation Treaty & India and US Nuclear Deal

Nut Graf: The Nuclear Technology Transfer to Australia under the ambit of AUKUS has implications that go beyond Australia and its neighbourhood. Even India will have some effect and thus needs to closely watch the developments in the trilateral grouping.

I. UPSC Mains Practice Questions

1. Ongoing negotiations amongst the AUKUS members hold important lessons for India as well. Comment. (250 words; 15 marks) (GS-2; International Relations)
2. Do you think women’s reservation in the Indian parliament would have a significant impact on gender equality in India? Substantiate your answer. (250 words; 15 marks) (GS-2; Social Justice)