Pak intel: is it a game changer in Indo-Pak ties?

Introduction

  • Massive mobilization of security personnel across Gujarat
  • Due to possible terror attacks from Pakistan
  • Reactions-Surprise and satisfaction by Indian policy elite
  • Surprise because an alert was issued by pakistan’s national security advisor, which is rare and satisfaction because govt feels, its Pakistan policy is on right track

What does this CBM mean?

  • It is unsual and rare
  • However, we should not read too much
  • It shows it’s the role of non-state actors and not the state
  • It also shows the keenness to continue talks, which was at an ebb post pathankot attacks
  • Although not a game changer, It is indicative of change in old policies
  • It has the potential to change the India-Pakistan relationship matrix
  • Cross border terrorism continues unabated and increased after Indian PM reached out to Pakistan’s PM
  • This tip-off is a good thing if it is not to strengthen the card of deniability. It can be a motivation, to deny that the Pakistan State is responsible for any terror attack
  • This kind of exchanges have happened in the past, although, not institutionalized.
  • Vernacular media in Pakistan has carried out a rhetoric about India’s role in Afghanistan
  • Keeping skepticism aside, it can signal a positive change, but, we need to follow a trust but verify approach
  • Could this information have been passed without the knowledge of ISI?
  • Probably not, because the information comes to National security adviser through ISI itself
  • However, terror has been Pakistan’s strategic doctrine against India. So this could be an odd situation.
  • The Political elite on both sides has put a lot of political capital in last two years. Example-Prime Minister’s visit to Lahore .So, there is a view that they would not want to let that go awry.
  • We have to wait and watch whether this would be a regular affair . The skepticism is because of delay in taking action about pathankot attacks on behalf of pakistan. Therefore, we need to wait and watch.

Possible Problems Pakistan PM would face internally:

  • Both PM’s have invested good amount of political capital without allowing jingoism to take space
  • NSA talks are regularly going on
  • However, Pakistani Policy elite will face internal problems but perseverance is expected
  • The Pakistani military elite also needs to be taken on board as they have strategic importance in pakistan’s security architecture

 

CONCLUSION:

Policy analysts feel that we should be optimistic, as without consensus of all the stakeholders, including the Pakistani military elite would be on board on such major overtures. However, the perseverance on regularizing these talks will be something that we have to watch out for

( This issue does not carry merit in asking specific stand-alone questions . Therefore, students are advised to use it as a follow-up development in indo-pak relations)