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Question

An author writes a good book with a probability of 1/2. If it is good is published with a probability of 2/3. If it is not, it is published with a probability of 1/4. Find the probability that he will get atleast one book published if he write two.

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Solution

Probability for one book to be published=12(23)+12(14)=1124
12 it is good & published 14 nor good & published
Probability no book is published =11124=1324
Probability that 2 books are not published =1324(1324)=169576
Probability that at least one book is published =1169576=407576

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