Question

It is expected that there is a $60\%$ chance that a bike will be sold in a showroom at any given day. From the simulation using digits from 1 through 5 and 50 trials, determine the estimated probability of at least two bikes sold out of three consecutive days.
Simulated data shows the following:
$123,125,451,523,542,452,124,134,234,325,432,243,542,453,421,431,145,341,441,552,343,215,252,114,222,245,314,225,331,152,411,423,313,251,542,551,442,451,542,443,415,514,454,545,214,215,542,555,514,545$.
Note: Take 1, 2, and 3 representing bikes that are sold.

• A. $54\%$
• B. $60\%$
• C. $57\%$
• D. $59\%$

Answer 1

The correct option is A $54\%$

Simulation uses digits 1 through 5, i.e., 5 digits.
A bike being sold any day is $60\%$.
3 digits out of 5 is $\frac{3}{5}\times 60=60\%$
So let’s take 1, 2, and 3 representing a bike sold, and 4 and 5 as bikes not sold on a date.

Since the simulation generates three digit numbers, each digit in a 3-digit number indicates a bike sold in three consecutive days.
We can see that in 27 out of 50 instances that the bike was sold at least two out of the three days.

Estimated probability $=\frac{27}{50}\times 100=54\%$