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Question

The time estimates in days for each activity of network are shown in figure.
Find the probability of completing the project in 36 days is ______% (Upto two decimal place)
The non exceedance probability (P) for various values of the probability factor Z is as follows.

Z 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3
(Pr(%) 84.13 86.43 88.49 90.32

  1. 90.32

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Solution

The correct option is A 90.32

tE=t0+4tL+tp6
σ2=(tpt06)2
Variance calculation is given in the table below:

Critical path:
1 - 2 - 5 = 10 + 7 = 17
1 - 2 - 4 - 5= 10+9 + 11 = 30
1 - 3 - 4 - 5 = 9 + 8 + 11 =28
1 - 3 - 5 = 9 + 5 = 14
Critical path = 1 - 2 - 4 -5

To calculate σ

TE=30days;Ts=36days

Z=TsTEσ

σ2 of critical path

σ2=4+9+9=22

σ=22=4.69

Z=36304.69=1.27 =1.3

From the table

Z=1.3probability=90.32%


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