The correct option is D All these are possible
Democracy, Civil War, Dictatorship - all of these are a possibility in Iraq's future. The passage begins with stating that the United States must learn to lose the war as concerns Iraq. It states that creating a democracy for Iraq is not in the hands of the United States. The passage also clearly states that "the cost of leaving will certainly be high..." (the U.S. leaving Iraq) and also that there is a "great likelihood" of the recurrence of either Dictatorship or Civil War or even both. Thus, option D is the correct answer in this context.