Weather forecasting is the attempt by meteorologists to predict the state of the atmosphere at some future time and the weather conditions that may be expected. Weather forecasting is the single most important practical reason for the existence of meteorology as a science.In the United States, weather forecasting is the responsibility of the National Weather Service (NWS).NWS will include 116 weather forecast offices (WFO) and 13 river forecast centers. WFOs also collect data from ships at sea all over the world and from meteorological satellites circling Earth. Different ways have been used worldwide to get accurate weather information.
The persistent forecast assumes the weather over a particular geographic area. The validity of persistent forecasting lasts for a few hours, but not much longer because weather conditions result from a complex interaction of many factors that still are not well understood and that may change rapidly.
The more reliable approach to weather forecasting is known as the steady-state or trend method. This method is based on the knowledge that weather conditions are strongly influenced by the movement of air masses that often can be charted quite accurately.
A similar approach to forecasting is called the analog method because it uses analogies between existing weather maps and similar maps from the past.
The basis for long-range forecasting is a statistical analysis of weather conditions over an area in the past. Today this kind of statistical data is augmented by studies of global conditions such as winds in the upper atmosphere and ocean temperatures.
Numerical weather prediction refers to forecasts that are obtained by using complex mathematical calculations carried out with high-speed computers. Numerical weather prediction is based on mathematical models of the atmosphere. A mathematical model is a system of equations that attempt to describe the properties of the atmosphere and changes that may take place within it.
Forecast accuracy also is difficult to judge because the average person's expectations probably have increased as the percent skill of forecasts also has increased. A hundred years ago, few people would have expected to have much idea as to what the weather would be like 24 hours in the future.