The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts a more than 50% chance of global temperatures surpassing 1.5°C within five years, highlighting insufficient progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the influence of El Niño. In this article, you can read more about this news and the implications of this, relevant for the IAS exam environment and ecology segment.
Global Warming Likely to Breach 1.5°C
Highlights of the WMO Report
- Global temperatures are now more likely than not to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius within the next five years.
- This does not mean crossing the long-term warming threshold of 1.5°C set in the Paris Agreement.
- A year with temperatures at 1.5°C would provide insights into the potential impact of crossing the long-term threshold.
- The probability of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C has increased over time.
- The world has not made sufficient progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
- The development of an El Niño weather pattern is partially responsible for the increased likelihood of reaching 1.5°C.
- El Niño, combined with human-induced climate change, is expected to push global temperatures into uncharted territory.
- Concerns are raised over the impact of El Niño, including extreme weather events and risks to regions like North America and South America.
- The WMO report provides a prediction-based long-range weather forecast, distinguishing it from climate projections.
- There is a 98% chance that one of the next five years will be the hottest on record.
- The report emphasizes the need for intensified global efforts to address the climate crisis.
Role of El Niño in Increasing Global Temperatures
- El Niño is a weather pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
- During El Niño, warmer waters in the tropical Pacific heat the atmosphere above, leading to a rise in global temperatures.
- El Niño can result in extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, droughts, and increased risk of wildfires.
- The current prediction of an El Niño development is raising concerns among scientists worldwide.
- El Niño’s influence on global temperatures underscores the complexity and interconnectedness of natural climate variability and human-induced climate change.
What Happens if the Earth Warms 1.5 Degrees?
Consequences of Increased Global Temperature of More than 1.5 Degrees Celsius:
- Increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, leading to heat-related illnesses and deaths.
- Accelerated melting of glaciers and polar ice caps, contributing to sea-level rise and increased coastal flooding.
- Worsening drought conditions in certain regions lead to water scarcity and agricultural challenges.
- More frequent and intense extreme weather events, including hurricanes, cyclones, and storms.
- Shifts in ecosystems and loss of biodiversity as species struggle to adapt to changing climatic conditions.
- Negative impacts on agriculture, affecting crop yields, food security, and livelihoods.
- Increased risk of wildfires due to drier conditions and higher temperatures.
- Adverse effects on human health include the spread of infectious diseases and the exacerbation of respiratory illnesses.
- Disruption of marine ecosystems, including coral bleaching and damage to marine life.
- Socioeconomic impacts, include displacement of populations due to rising sea levels and increased vulnerability in low-lying coastal areas.
- Potential damage to infrastructure, including roads, buildings, and utilities, due to extreme weather events.
- Challenges for global economies include disruptions to industries such as tourism, agriculture, and insurance.
- Compounded social and environmental inequalities, with disadvantaged communities often bearing the brunt of the consequences.
Conclusion: The World Meteorological Organization’s report highlighting the increasing likelihood of global temperatures surpassing 1.5°C emphasizes the urgent need for global cooperation. International organisations, supported by technological advancements, must intensify efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, mitigate the impacts of climate change, and promote sustainable practices for a more resilient and equitable future. Effective collaboration and collective action are crucial in addressing the climate crisis and safeguarding the planet for future generations.
Global Warming Likely to Breach 1.5°C [WMO Report]:- Download PDF Here
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