Saudi Arabia’s Quest for Strategic Autonomy [UPSC Current Affairs]

This article talks about the changing nature of Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy and its implications in the region. This topic is relevant for the IAS exam international relations segment of GS paper II.

Saudi Arabia’s Quest for Strategic Autonomy UPSC

Saudi Arabia’s shifts from aggressive foreign policy to diplomacy:

• In the past: 
  • Saudi Arabia has pursued an assertive foreign policy aimed at expanding its influence in the West Asian region and countering its arch-rival Iran.
• Recent changes:

• • Saudi Arabia is now changing course and adopting a more conciliatory approach towards old rivals and even new enemies, while seeking to balance its relationships with great powers such as the United States, China, and Russia.
  • If this shift towards diplomacy is successful, it could have significant implications for the stability of the West Asian region.

How is Saudi Foreign Policy Changing?

• Saudi Arabia followed a policy of hostility towards Iran, which resulted in many proxy conflicts across the region.
  • The Kingdom has been involved in proxy conflicts with Iran in Syria and Yemen, and demanded Qatar sever ties with Iran during the 2017 blockade, which ended unsuccessfully in 2021.
• Recent developments suggest a change in policy, that is a shift from a policy of hostility to diplomacy.
  • Saudi Arabia announced a deal to normalize diplomatic ties with Iran and engaged in talks with Syria and the Houthi rebels in Yemen for a permanent ceasefire.
• This shift from aggression to diplomacy and pragmatic realignments coincides with Saudi Arabia’s efforts to balance its relationships with the U.S., Russia, and China.

Why are there changes now?

• Saudi Arabia’s security concerns are still largely influenced by Iran, indicating that their relationship has not experienced a significant change. Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia’s approach to the issue has changed from a strategic rivalry to a more tactical de-escalation and coexistence.
• This shift is due to a combination of factors, including the failure of the Kingdom’s regional bets.
  • The threat posed by the Houthis in Yemen, and the US’s shifting priorities away from the region. 
• Saudi Arabia is now faced with a choice of either continuing to contain Iran or reaching out to establish a new balance between the two.
  • The Kingdom saw China’s offer to mediate between the two countries as an opportunity to pursue the latter option.

Is Saudi Arabia Moving Away from the U.S.?

• Saudi Arabia is not moving away from the U. S.:
  • The U.S. is having a significant military presence in the Gulf and to Saudi Arabia, the U.S. remains the country’s largest defense supplier.
  • The Kingdom is working on improving its missile and drone abilities to offset Iran’s advantages in those domains. They are receiving support from the United States and other nations.
  • Entered into talks with the U.S on normalizing ties with Israel.
• Saudi Arabia is autonomizing its foreign policy:

• • The Kingdom is aware that the U.S. is de-prioritizing West Asia and it is changing the region’s post-war order. Saudi Arabia is attempting to use this policy shift to establish its own foreign policy autonomy while maintaining ties with the U.S.
    • Concerns expressed by CIA Chief on Saudi-Iran rapprochement
    • US unhappy with Syria’s re-accommodation in the West Asian mainstream
  • Saudi Arabia has also built stronger relationships with Russia and China and is engaging in large infrastructure projects.
    • Unlike most other U. S. allies, Saudi Arabia refused to join anti-Russia sanctions and joined hands with Russia to cut oil production.
    • As the Kingdom has strengthened its connections with China and China has played a role in the Iran reconciliation agreement, it has become evident that Beijing has become a major mediator in West Asia.
  • While it is not Saudi Arabia’s goal to de-Americanize the region, it is seeking to establish its own autonomy by leveraging relationships with other powers.

Implications for the region:

• Saudi-Iran rapprochement:
  • Saudi Arabia’s normalization talks with Syria and the Houthis should be viewed in the context of the larger picture of Saudi-Iran rapprochement.
    • Settling the Yemen war with the Houthis would result in a calmer Saudi border and allow Tehran to retain its influence in the Saudi backyard.
  • Although such agreements may not significantly impact the security dynamics of the region, they could provide some stability across the Gulf.
• Israel factor:
  • The path ahead may not be straightforward as the escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran could impact cross-Gulf stability.
  • Israeli raid on Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa and the bombing of Syria have resulted in attacks from Lebanon and Gaza.
• The U.S factor: 
  • Despite its significant military presence in the region, the US is now a mere spectator as China and Russia mediate talks between rivals, and Saudi Arabia builds its autonomy.

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