US-China Relations [UPSC Notes]

After months of tensions between China and the United States, there seems to be a detente in the bilateral relationship between both countries. This is of significance to India even as PM Modi is due to visit the US in June 2023 aiming to strengthen India-US alignment in Asia and the Indo-Pacific. This development is relevant for the IAS exam international relations segment.

Reasons for Tension between US and China

• The appearance of a Chinese high-altitude balloon over the US, which the Pentagon mentioned as a spying device.
• US-China tensions have been high for some time.
  • China harbours suspicions that the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue aims to confine its influence within the Indo-Pacific region.
  • The proactive US positioning on Taiwan
• But over the last couple of months, the US has made efforts to thaw relations between the two nations.
  • President Biden’s suggestion of a change in approach during the G7 meeting, using the term “de-risk” instead of “decouple” in economic engagement with China.

Shape of the Détente:

• During the Cold War, the US and USSR established a détente after the Cuban missile crisis, leading to reduced tensions and cooperation. 
• Henry Kissinger, a Cold War strategist, suggests that an accommodation with China could resemble the US-Soviet détente. 
• Economic engagement is a significant aspect of US-China relations, with bilateral trade reaching nearly $700 billion in 2022. 
• Speculation of Secretary Blinken’s visit to China could potentially pave the way for a Biden-Xi summit to establish a modus vivendi between the two powers.

US-China Relations – Implications for India

• India and the US have strengthened their ties due to shared concerns about China’s rise. 
• India’s participation in the Quad and US Indo-Pacific strategy followed conflicts with China.
• However, an improvement in US-China relations could affect India’s position as the country with the longest border with China. 
  • The emergence of a US-China G2 for global stability, where each side indirectly accepts the other’s spheres of influence, would be a major concern and a significant source of anxiety for India in the coming years.
• Experts warn that accepting a China-centric regional order would be counterproductive to India’s interests. 
• They suggest India needs a counterbalancing strategy, working with the US and others while managing expectations and defining limitations.

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