The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted normal rainfall for the upcoming monsoon season (2023), providing relief to farmers and potentially boosting the economy. In this article, you can learn more about the IMD forecast for monsoons 2023 and how El Nino and La Nina affects the Indian Monsoons. This topic is important for the IAS exam geography segment.
IMD Forecast for Monsoons 2023
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a normal monsoon for 2023 with an expected rainfall of 96% of the long-term average (LPA) for the four-month season.
- The prediction comes as a relief to farmers across the country, who heavily rely on monsoon rain for irrigation and crop production.
- The IMD attributed the normal monsoon to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and lower northern hemisphere snow cover, which are likely to counter the effects of the El Niño condition.
- IMD defines average, or normal, rainfall as ranging between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season.
- Some regions of northwest India and parts of west-central states and some pockets of north-eastern regions of the country are likely to get normal to below-normal rainfall, according to the first forecast of IMD on monsoon 2023.
- IMD will issue an updated forecast for the monsoon season in the last week of May.
El Niño and La Niña
El Niño and La Niña are weather phenomena caused by changes in ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These changes in ocean temperatures affect global weather patterns, including the Indian monsoon.
- El Niño:
- El Niño refers to a phase of warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
- During El Niño, the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual, leading to a weakening of the Indian monsoon.
- El Niño is often associated with droughts in India, as it reduces rainfall during the monsoon season.
- In the past, not all El Niño years have been bad monsoon years in India.
- Know more about El Nino in the linked article.
- La Niña:
- La Niña refers to a phase of cooling of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
- During La Niña, the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean become cooler than usual, leading to a strengthening of the Indian monsoon.
- La Niña is often associated with above-average rainfall during the monsoon season in India.
- In the past, not all La Niña years have been good monsoon years in India.
- Know more about La Nina in the linked article.
- Impact on Indian Monsoon:
- The Indian monsoon is heavily influenced by El Niño and La Niña, which can lead to deviations from the normal pattern of rainfall.
- El Niño can cause droughts and reduce crop yields, leading to lower farm incomes and potentially affecting the overall economy.
- La Niña can cause flooding and landslides, which can damage crops and infrastructure and also affect the economy.
- The impact of El Niño and La Niña on the Indian monsoon can vary depending on the strength and duration of the phenomenon, as well as other weather patterns such as the Indian Ocean Dipole.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
- The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a natural phenomenon that occurs in the equatorial Indian Ocean.
- It refers to the difference in sea surface temperature between the eastern and western parts of the ocean.
- IOD is closely related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, which also affects the Indian monsoon.
- A positive IOD occurs when the western Indian Ocean becomes cooler than the eastern part, which results in higher rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.
- On the other hand, a negative IOD occurs when the eastern Indian Ocean becomes cooler than the western part, which results in lower rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.
- A positive IOD and La Niña condition in the Pacific Ocean can offset the negative impact of El Niño on the Indian monsoon.
- The Indian Ocean Dipole plays a crucial role in determining the strength and distribution of rainfall during the Indian monsoon season, especially over the southern and central parts of India.
The Divergence between IMD and Skymet Prediction:
- The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted a normal monsoon this year, while private forecaster Skymet warned of below-normal rainfall.
- Skymet’s prediction was based on the development of the El Niño weather pattern, which can cause droughts, while the IMD said that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and lower northern hemisphere snow cover would likely counter the effects of El Niño.
- The IMD forecasted an expected rainfall of 96% of the long-term average for the four-month monsoon season with an error margin of 5%. In contrast, Skymet predicted that the season is likely to bring only 94% of the rain the country usually gets from June to September.
- According to the IMD, some regions of northwest India, parts of west-central states, and some pockets of northeastern regions of the country are likely to get normal to below-normal rainfall, while the Skymet prediction did not provide any regional details.
Photo: Skymet and IMD predictions vs actual rainfallÂ
Source: Mint
Conclusion:Â
- The IMD’s provisional prediction of a normal monsoon in India has offered hope to millions of farmers who depend heavily on monsoon rain for irrigation. Although there is a divergence with Skymet’s forecast of a below-average monsoon, IMD’s positive outlook is based on the expected counter-effects of the El Niño weather pattern by the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and lower northern hemisphere snow cover.Â
- However, it is important to note that the forecast has an error margin of 5%, and IMD will issue an updated forecast for the monsoon season in the last week of May. The actual monsoon spread and volume of rainfall, its timing and dispersion, will crucially influence crop sowing and output, as well as prices. Therefore, farmers and policymakers need to remain vigilant and prepare for any potential deviations from the forecast.
IMD Forecast for Monsoons 2023:- Download PDF Here
| Related Links | |||
| Climate of India |
Koeppen’s Climate Classification | ||
| Cyclone | Rainfall in India | ||
| Factors Controlling Temperature Distribution | Heat Index | ||
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