International Relations This Week: Episode 90

International relations is a very important segment of the UPSC syllabus. In this series, we present an analysis of the most important international issues and developments that occurred over the past week relevant for the IAS exam. In this article, you can learn more about Interpol, the recent Chinese Communist Party Congress, Economic Crisis in the U.K., the U.S.-India Trade policy forum and UNGA Resolution against Russia.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Interpol
2. Chinese Communist Party Congress
3. UK’s Economic Crisis
4. US – India Trade Policy Forum
5. UNGA Resolution against Russia

1. Interpol

Context: The General Assembly of the International Criminal Police Organisation (Interpol) is meeting in Delhi for four days from October 18, 2022. 

Introduction:

• The 90th General Assembly of Interpol is being hosted by India. The General Assembly meeting is taking place in India after a gap of 25 years, last held in 1997.
• Addressing the 90th Interpol General Assembly, Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi said that there can be no safe haven for the corrupt, drug cartels, terrorists, poaching gangs or organised crime. Police and law enforcement agencies need to devise policies and protocols to increase cooperation. Interpol can help by speeding up Red Corner Notices for fugitive offenders. 
• Interpol has also reportedly sent back India’s request to issue a Red Notice against Khalistan separatist group Sikhs for Justice (SFJ) founder Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. The request was sent back by Interpol with a set of queries to the Indian government. 
• Interpol also raised concerns over the “misuse” of the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) to target minority groups and rights activists without “respecting” their right to due process and a fair trial.
• Interpol is celebrating 100 years of its inception in 2023 since the founding of the International Criminal Police Commission (1923), which then became INTERPOL in 1956.

India and Interpol:

• India has been a member since 1956. Like other member countries, India maintains a National Central Bureau (NCB) which serves as the national platform for cooperation between domestic law enforcement units and the international police community. 
• The NCB is the designated contact point for Interpol. 
• Each NCB is run by police officials of that country, and usually sits in the government ministry responsible for policing. (Union Home Ministry in India.)
  • The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) assumes this role in India with one of its senior officers heading its exclusive Interwing (the National Central Bureau) for the collation of information and liaison with Interpol.
• Interpol manages 19 police databases with information on crimes and criminals (from names and fingerprints to stolen passports), accessible in real-time to countries. 
• It also offers investigative support such as forensics, analysis, and assistance in locating fugitives around the world.
• As one of the oldest Interpol members, India has been a crucial partner in the fight against transnational crime since 1949. From regularly contributing to its databases, to participating in joint operations and supporting capacity-building for police officers in India and beyond, its impact on Interpol has been formidable.
• India has collaborated with Interpol in tackling a myriad of organised crimes such as poaching, wildlife trafficking, spurious drugs and fake medicine rackets, among others.
• Earlier in 2022, the CBI had joined the international child sexual exploitation database of Interpol, a move which will bolster its fight against sex abuse of minors and help in the identification of victims and abusers using sophisticated analytics software.
  • The CBI in 2021 busted a major network of paedophiles and distributors of Child Sexual Abuse Material (CSAM) who were selling illicit content on social media for just Rs 10 for 60 videos with payments received through Paytm.
  • CBI had code-named it “Operation Carbon” and its coordinated operation had unmasked 51 social media groups comprising 5,700 offenders having five lakh social media messages and 10 lakh suspected CSAM video messages.
• India also led a nationwide financial crimes crackdown as part of Operation Chakra in partnership with Interpol, the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the Royal Canadian Police and the Australian Federal Agency. 

Conclusion:

As Interpol works to advance its digital efforts and catalyse change, India will play a crucial part. The nation has emerged as a regional leader in the struggle against cyber-enabled crimes in recent years. Police forces in India are building competence in cyber-criminality that can help all Interpol member countries, from setting up forensic labs for training and awareness of cybercrime investigations to creating specialised police stations to handle digital crimes.

2. Chinese Communist Party Congress

Context: The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) opened in Beijing on 16 October 2022.

Introduction:

• The National Congress of the Communist Party of China is a week-long event which takes place every five years. 
• This event defines the political-institutional character of the CCP due to its monopoly on Chinese politics. 
• The event has three main tasks: to endorse leadership transitions; to approve changes to the party constitution; and to deliberate on policy issues.
  • About 200 out of 2300 delegates will be selected to join the party’s central committee.
  • The central committee will elect 25 people to the party’s Politburo.
  • The Politburo will appoint the members of the Politburo standing committee.
  • The Politburo standing committee is considered the elite of the elite which includes seven members, including the party’s General Secretary Xi Jinping.
  • No woman has ever served on the elite Politburo Standing Committee.
• It is widely expected to endorse an unprecedented third five-year term or perhaps a lifelong tenure in power to President Xi Jinping besides enhancing his powers through constitutional amendments.
• Xi, who is completing a 10-year tenure this year, will be the first Chinese leader after party founder Mao Zedong to continue in power, formally ending three decades of rule followed by his predecessors to retire.

Implication of the event on global politics:

• The third term for President Xi Jinping gives more authority to the leader who has given China’s foreign policy a more aggressive and muscular thrust than ever before. Xi has also sought to increase Beijing’s global reach through his Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), however, is currently struggling with a credibility crisis after the economic meltdown in Sri Lanka, and a crisis of liquidity because of China’s own economic problems.
• In China, Xi has been a political hardliner who believes in absolute control over the state, party, ideology, and people — priorities that he indicated in a landmark 2013 speech as necessary to prevent China from meeting the same fate as the Soviet Union. 
• Since rising to the top in 2012, Xi has cracked down on corruption in the party, and introduced several new bodies in the party that concentrate more power in his hands than any other leader of China has enjoyed since Mao Zedong.
• The concentration of power in the hands of a few leaders has implications for the future policies that China is going to adopt. The future economic, military and diplomatic policy of China will all be dependent on the leadership selections in the ongoing congress.
• Under Xi, the Chinese administration is expected to continue its ‘Wolf Warrior approach’ to diplomacy.
  • This approach reinforces a presumed transition of Chinese diplomacy from conservative, passive, and low-key to assertive, and proactive that goes as far as insulting or threatening those deemed to violate China’s interests. 
• China has been pushing Xi’s economic, political, digital, and security models through the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), GDI (Global Development Initiative), GDSI (Global Data Security Initiative), and GSI (Global Security Initiative).

Conclusion: The 20th Congress comes at a time when China’s economy is reeling under the fallout of President Xi’s “zero Covid” strategy. China set a modest growth target of 5.5 per cent this year. While China’s reputation has suffered in the West, growing middle powers and smaller countries see China as their main hope for economic recovery. The session will be watched for what macroeconomic policy solutions it produces to shore up “Common Prosperity” and China’s approach towards global politics.

3. UK’s Economic Crisis

Context: The UK economy unexpectedly shrank in the month of August 2022, strengthening predictions that it will fall into a recession.

Introduction:

• The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that the U.K’s GDP fell by 0.3% in the three months till August 2022.
• The Bank of England had previously said that it expects the UK to fall into a recession by the end of the year 2022.
• It blames the UK’s economic problems on very sharp increases in prices, especially for energy. 
• Inflation rose to 9.9% in August. People’s incomes are falling after adjusting for rising prices.
• Prime Minister Liz Truss took office in September 2022 promising to reenergize the British economy and put the nation on a path to “long-term success.” Instead, her tenure so far has been marred by turmoil as mortgage rates soared, the pound fell to record lows and chaos in bond markets threatened the country’s financial stability.
• Truss’s decision to announce 105 billion pounds of tax cuts and spending increases in a mini-budget without providing details on how the administration would pay for it spooked markets concerned about soaring public debt. It was heavily criticised by experts and the markets.
  • The first policy was a plan to abolish the 45% top rate of income tax for people on incomes of £1,50,000 or higher. 
  • A second policy was the proposal to scrap a planned increase in corporate tax from 19% to 25% starting April 2023. Together, the two measures amounted to £45 billion in unfunded tax cuts.
• That undermined confidence in the government’s ability to pay its bills and raised questions about the economic credentials of a new prime minister who took office after a deeply divisive contest for leadership of the governing Conservative Party.

What has been the fallout of the policies?

• Mini budget by the new PM caused such turbulence in the markets that the Bank of England (BoE) was compelled to step in to help the pensions industry survive skyrocketing government borrowing costs, a crashing pound and soaring mortgage rates.
• The cost of borrowing has continued to rise despite the Truss government’s U-turn on its two controversial tax policies.
• Yields on government bonds — the return investors demand to hold government debt — soared amid growing concern about the stability of public finances. 
• That makes government borrowing costs more expensive. The yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 4.53% in October from 3.37% on Sept. 22.

Conclusion: While the Truss government’s U-turn on the unfunded tax cuts may temporarily ameliorate the turmoil in markets and prevent further economic damage, deeper macroeconomic changes are required to bring the U.K. back to a stable path of economic growth and manageable inflation levels.

4. US – India Trade Policy Forum

Context: The 13th U.S.-India Trade Policy Forum (TPF) has been scheduled for November 8, 2022 in Washington DC.

Introduction: 

• India and the US will hold the next ministerial-level meeting of the Trade Policy Forum (TPF) in the U.S to discuss ways for promoting trade and investment between the countries.
• India and the US held the 12th TPF in New Delhi on November 23, 2022.
• The forum is an inter-agency collaboration led by the US Trade Representative (USTR).
• This is led by the Minister of Commerce and Industry (CIM) and the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR).
• It is the principal trade dialogue between the two countries. 
• It has five focus groups: 
  • Agriculture 
  • Investment 
  • Innovation and Creativity (IPR) 
  • Services 
  • Tariff and Non-Tariff Barriers

Significance of the Trade Policy Forum:

• This meeting is crucial given the structural differences in both economies and political considerations in India and the U.S. — both of which have general elections in 2024.
• The US was India’s largest export destination and the second-largest trading partner in 2020-21.
• The bilateral trade between India and the US stood at $80.5 billion in 2020-21. India has received $13. 8 billion foreign direct investment from the US during 2020-21.
• Many U.S. companies view India as a critical market and have expanded their operations there. Likewise, Indian companies seek to increase their presence in U.S. markets and at the end of 2020, Indian investment in the United States totalled $12.7 billion, supporting over 70,000 American jobs. 
  • The nearly 200,000 Indian students in the United States contribute $7.7 billion annually to the U.S. economy.
• In TPF, on the Indian side, the requests are concentrated in the services sector, while for the U.S. side goods market access and the policy environment – such as data laws and now the imminent changes to India’s competition law – are of interest.
• India’s requests have included high skilled worker visa numbers, fees, and visa processing times;  social security portability across countries; and 232 tariffs (i.e., tariffs imposed during the Trump administration on steel and aluminium) and the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP).
  • For now, GSP had been of interest in previous rounds of talks. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, whose approach to trade was largely guided by differentials in the overall trade balance, had taken India out of the program in June 2019.
  • India has also historically wanted the U.S. to reduce its fees on visas for highly skilled workers (H1-B and L) as well as to increase the number of H1-B visas. More recently, since the pandemic extraordinary visa, wait times have become an issue, frustrating work plans and keeping families apart.

Conclusion: Both countries must address several foundational issues for a successful trade deal. A deal with the US will be beneficial for India, both strategically and economically. From a strategic point of view, one of the ways that the U.S can counter China is by deepening trade ties with partners who are committed to supporting India’s growth.

5. UNGA Resolution Against Russia

Context: The UN General Assembly recently voted to condemn Russia’s “attempted illegal annexation” of four Ukrainian regions and demand its immediate reversal.

Introduction:

• The UN General Assembly voted to condemn Russia’s illegal referendums in regions within the internationally recognised borders of Ukraine and the attempted illegal annexation of the Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine. 
• The resolution ‘Territorial integrity of Ukraine: defending the principles of the Charter of the United Nations’ was adopted with 143 nations voting in favour, Russia, Belarus, North Korea, Syria, and Nicaragua voting against, and 35, including India, abstaining.
• India also abstained on a similar resolution in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) which would have condemned Moscow’s “illegal referenda” and declared its annexation of four Ukrainian territories as invalid. 
  • The resolution failed to pass in UNSC, despite winning 10 supporting votes, after Russia used a veto to block it. 

Background:

• In September 2022, Vladimir Putin signed “accession treaties” formalising Russia’s annexation of four occupied regions in Ukraine namely Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.
• These annexation treaties were signed based on the results of Russian-organised referenda in these regions.
• These four regions are inside Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders.
• The U.S questioned the legitimacy of the referenda held in the occupied areas by Russia.

India’s Stand:

• India’s decision to abstain from voting to condemn Russia’s “illegal referendums” is consistent with its position on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. 
• India abstained from the resolution, stating that “intensification of rhetoric or tensions is in no one’s interest” and that “it is imperative that routes are identified for a return to the negotiating table.”
• In terms of diplomacy, India continues to press forcefully for an immediate cessation of hostilities and an end to violence. India encouraged talks between Ukraine and Russia, including at the level of their Presidents from the beginning.

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