Sansad TV Perspective: Monsoon: Changing Patterns

In the series Sansad TV Perspective, we bring you an analysis of the discussion featured on the insightful programme ‘Perspective’ on Sansad TV, on various important topics affecting India and also the world. This analysis will help you immensely for the IAS exam, especially the mains exam, where a well-rounded understanding of topics is a prerequisite for writing answers that fetch good marks.

In this article, we feature the discussion on the topic: ‘Monsoon – Changing Patterns’

Anchor: Vishal Dahiya

Guests:

1. Urmi Goswami, Senior Journalist
2. Dr. Vibha Dhawan, DG, TERI
3. Dr. K. Sathi Devi, Scientist-F & Head (NWFC), IMD, New Delhi

Context: Heavy rainfall in various parts of the country.

Highlights of the discussion:

• Introduction
• Changing pattern of Monsoons
• Rationale for the changes
• Impact
• Way Ahead

Introduction:

• Heavy rainfall over North and Northwest India in October underscores the changing patterns of monsoon activity over the subcontinent. Monsoon rainfall has become more erratic with fewer rainy days but more intense rain. 
• Monsoon season which was earlier confined to the four-month period from June-September is now clearly spilling over into October. 
• Experts point out that in line with the experience in many other parts of the world, rainfall in India is increasingly taking place in short, intense bursts. Extreme rainfall events are increasing both in intensity and frequency. 
• Monsoon rainfall is not just a weather phenomenon. It is a key driver of the Indian economy. A significant part of Indian agriculture still depends on monsoon rainfall for irrigation. The supply of drinking water and the generation of electricity are also linked to the monsoons.

Changing Pattern of Monsoons:

• The month of October 2022 is the wettest October since 1956. Even in 2021 various records were broken in terms of rainfall in the month of October.
• The monsoon season in India has become longer and the days of intense rainfall and dry spells have also increased considerably. When the disaggregated data are analyzed, it is noticed that the rainfall is concentrated to fewer days.
• Many other variables like weather systems, currents, pressures, and temperature have also changed. For instance, the retreating monsoon is pushed back by pressures.
• Moreover, this is not the first year that these kinds of changes are experienced. Monsoon withdrawal spilling over to the month of October and intense bursts of rainfall over a short period of time have become a common trend in the past few years.
• Changes in the dates of the Monsoon as published by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD):
  • If the normal date of onset is analyzed, it remains almost the same, that is 1st June.
    • The onset date of monsoons over the entire country is the same as the onset date for Kerala.
  • In terms of coverage over the entire country, the normal date was 15th July, which has now advanced by a week to 8th July.
  • The monsoon withdrawal which commences from the North-Western parts of India has delayed from 1st September to 17th September. That is almost by two weeks.

Rationale behind changing pattern of monsoons:

• One of the major reasons behind the changing pattern of monsoons is Climate Change as all these changes are also experienced in other parts of the world. The role of climate change is well documented. For instance,
  • The temperature in Delhi touched 50 degrees Celsius and heat waves had a longer-than-usual spell.
  • The hot season implies hotter air that can hold more moisture for a longer time. This thus explains the longer dry spells and heavy downpours in the form of intense rainfall.
  • This extreme impact of climate change was well predicted by various experts, institutions, and agencies.
• It is also related to changing land use patterns and global warming.
• Local atmospheric factors like western disturbance, low-pressure systems, etc. are also responsible to a great extent.
• The emission of greenhouse gases is also a major factor. 
• The increasing temperature of oceans also causes a change in the pattern of monsoons over India.

Role of the Indian Meteorological Department:

• IMD has played a very crucial role in prediction and weather forecasting. 
• It has a seamless weather forecasting strategy that makes long-range predictions, medium-range predictions, monthly forecasts, short-range predictions, etc.
• To predict intense activities it has now adopted Nowcasting, which can make predictions for six hours, three hours, and even one hour in case of emergency.
• IMD has adopted a lot of modernization in the past few years.

Impact of the changed pattern:

• The intensity of rainfall within a short span causes disasters like flash floods, urban floods, landslides, etc.
• The impact of the changed pattern of climate is felt beyond the Indian continent. For example, the regions that were never drought prone are experiencing severe droughts.
• For every one-degree rise in temperature, there is a seven percent increase in atmosphere retention and thereby implying seven percent more rainfall. It is observed that this is the exact figure for excess rainfall in the month of October.
• It also impacts the phenomenon of jet streams. Jet streams regulate the movement of cold air from the Arctic and control the overall temperature of the Northern Hemisphere.
• The ocean temperatures and ocean currents are also impacted by the change in the pattern of monsoon.
• Monsoon in India is not just a weather phenomenon but it has an impact on various sectors like agriculture, power generation, drinking water, etc.
  • A late monsoon means a lot of issues like late sowing of seeds, the same variety of seeds cannot be used; seeds are sown matching the monsoon patterns, impact on the overall yield, etc.
  • So any impact on monsoons causes cascading effects on the entire cropping pattern.
  • Though there are various factors for stubble burning, the less time between the harvesting of paddy and the sowing of wheat is also attributed to the monsoon spilling beyond its four-month period.
  • The price of commodities like vegetables also spirals because of the inundation of fields due to heavy downpours.
• The impact of monsoons is immense on the daily lives of human beings.

Way Ahead:

• The bad news is that ignorance cannot be pleaded now. Experts and scientists have been warning about such impacts for almost two and a half decades and it is time for action.
• There is a need for research on climate-resilient varieties of crops.
• The changing patterns need to be studied and analyzed in depth. There is a requirement for more data to study the patterns and micro-patterns.
• There should be a greater service connection between IMD and the agriculture extension service.
• Community information centres should be created for a seamless flow of information to the general public.
• There is a need to build resilient infrastructures like roads as they are also impacted due to heavy rains.
• Every facet of life needs to be changed and adapted in a multipronged way.

Read all the previous Sansad TV Perspective articles in the link.

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