What does Russian withdrawal mean for Syrian peace?

Russia Intervened in the Syrian Civil War on September 2015, following an official request from the Assad government for military aid against rebels. This episode of RSTV will shed light on the results of the intervention within the context of the IAS Exam. Candidates can watch the full episode at the end of this article.

Context

The Syrian Civil War which had broken out in 2011 was made progressively worse with the emergence of ISIS in 2014. Overwhelmed from all angles, the government of Bashar Al-Assad made a formal request to Russia for assistance. The Russians responded initially with airstrikes before deploying special forces and ground troops to the region

Have the objectives been fulfilled?

• There were four main military objectives:
  • To shore up the Assad regime
  • Fight ISIS and other enemies
  • Neutralise Turkey’s neo-Ottoman ambitions
  • Re-position Russia as a serious and major power equal to USA sectorally

• Stated objective to fight ISIS, but, the main objective was to support Assad regime

Results:

• Balance of power shifted to Assad govt
• Not weakened ISIS completely, although ISIS influence in certain regions has reduced.
• Terrorism has not been reduced to Zero.

Does it represent a recovery of post-soviet Russia?

• Russia has operated politically, militarily and economically outside its zone. It does signal a recovery but its economy remains weak
• Although Cost of intervention is not too much, it is a sticking point.
• No reduction in the navy in the Mediterranean
• Airstrikes have also shifted towards the ISIS
• ISIS influence has reduced to an extent

Did the Russian announcement of partial withdrawal come as a surprise to Assad regime?

• Experts don’t think so.
• It was not doing a regime change, rather, shoring up an existing regime
• Its larger objectives in the Middle East depend on a strong secular regime in Syria.
• Therefore, the Latakia airbase and naval forces are still going to be there.
• Signal to Assad is that Syria needs to engage in discussions and dialogue.
• They need to take negotiations and peace process with various fringe groups more seriously
• Withdrawal signals that Russia will not facilitate complete Syrian victory

What does this mean for Syria?

• Syrian govt has to take up more responsibility
• Russia will protect it as an entity within the region, but will not solve the domestic political problems of Syria
• Despite this, there might be future military attacks, as the naval forces and Latakia airbase still there

Regional Politics and Long term strategy of Russia:

• There is a strong Baathist regime in Syria and it is in Russia’s interest to bring the Baathist regime back in Damascus.
• Russia will not like an extreme right-wing in Syria
• Main strategic objective:
  • By withdrawing, Russia has addresses the European concerns, of Franco-British gungho approach
  • Its a reversal of Russian policy unlike under Gorbachev earlier- The old policies of abject surrender or continued war has been done away with
  • It has prevented the creation of the neo-Ottoman Sunni state, as envisioned by Turkey. Therefore, keeping a few Russian forces for a possible future battle around this region is a geo-strategic masterstroke.
  • Obama’s recent interview shows that Russia is not what NATO thought it was. A strong Russian military has taken NATO aback.
  • Obama’s interview shows that Russia’s strategies have made it on par with the USA, at least sectorally

• Russia preparing for a larger bargain with the west, on sanctions imposed on Russia.
• Creating opportunities for creating peace and bargain.
• The flow of refugees to Europe may also reduce
• Larger gain is related to energy prices.
• The signal from Saudi Arabia that it welcomes the Russian withdrawal.
• Speculation that there is larger interest between Saudi Arabia and Russia, related to oil prices
• European sanctions on Russia may be lifted, as the peace process has to continue.

MOSCOW BLOCK:

• New opposition in geneva talks called Moscow block
• They may be the proxy block of Russia itself with an understanding of Assad.
• They could be Baathist or supporters of Assad
• They are supposedly Kurds, who have demanded federalism in a Kurdish majority area of Syria
• The reason for springing up of Moscow blocks show that:
  • The opposition is not united
  • To have the more optimal outcome of the peace process as there are several players
  • Kurds are the main opposition to neo-Ottoman ambitions of turkey
  • They have been buttressed militarily by supplying the military lines of Saudi Arabia and Turkey. So, they are an advantage to Russia
  • Kurds are the main force who can stop ISIS.

Conclusion

Having faced sanctions from the west and Europe, Russia has chosen a very positive geopolitical strategy. By choosing to withdraw partially from Syria, it has sent multiple signals to all stakeholders. The USA and the West, especially France and Britain, now need to view and take Russia more seriously. Russia’s views and its participation in Geneva peace talks is a given as it has created an opportunity for itself. Therefore, a bargain with the west to lift the sanctions could also be on cards. Moreover, Syria now needs to be more responsible and take a serious look at the peace process. It has also managed to stop the ambitious turkey from building a regional Sunni state. Therefore, we have to wait and watch how the cards unfold in future days.

Other useful news articles:

1) Why putin is withdrawing some troops from syria

2) How Putin has changed the business of oil

Practice Question:

What are threats posed by ISIS to regional and international peace? In this context, Critically analyse the role of major stakeholders in the Syrian civil war.

The above details would help candidates prepare for UPSC 2021.

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