International Relations This Week: Episode 60

International relations is a very important segment of the UPSC syllabus. In this series, we present an analysis of the most important international issues and developments that occurred over the past week relevant for the IAS exam. In this article, you can learn more about the Russia – Ukraine standoff, the latest developments in India – Nepal relations, in China, and the Iranian President’s visit to Russia.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Russia & Ukraine Standoff
2. Developments in China
3. Iranian President’s Visit to Russia
4. India Nepal Relations

1. Russia & Ukraine Standoff

Context: 

Russia has mobilized troops on its border with Ukraine. The crisis has unleashed a flurry of diplomatic moves with the U.S., NATO and the European Union holding talks with Russian officials.

Recent Developments: 

• The Ukrainian President hosted the Turkish President for talks in Ukraine.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin met his Argentinian counterpart Alberto Fernandez in Moscow.
• NATO voiced concerns that Russia continues to build up troop numbers along Ukraine’s borders, including in Belarus.
• Mr Putin held talks with the President of the Argentine Republic in the Kremlin.
• French President Emmanuel Macron held a joint press conference with Mr Putin to discuss possible ways to ease tensions over Ukraine.

Significant Aspects of Russia & Ukraine Crisis

• Annexation of Crimea: With the 2014 annexation of Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula has witnessed both the arrival of Russian troops and the spread of Russian environmental degradation.
• NATO’s Expansion: With the possibility of Ukraine becoming a NATO member, Russia wants guarantees that NATO would not expand eastward, including to Ukraine.
• Geo-Political Context of Ukraine Crisis: The conflict in Ukraine is viewed by some as part of a renewed geopolitical rivalry between western powers and Russia. Now Ukraine has sought to forge its own path as a sovereign state while looking to align more closely with Western institutions, including the European Union and NATO.
• Threat of Cyber Attacks: As tensions mount between Russia and the West over Ukraine, the threat of Russian cyberattacks against the U.S. increases. A new Department of Homeland Security bulletin warns that Russia could launch a cyberattack against U.S. targets if it believes Washington’s response to its potential invasion of Ukraine threatens its long-term national security.
• Russia China Iran Joint Military Exercise: Iran, China and Russia held their third joint naval drills in the northern Indian Ocean. Iran has sought to step up military cooperation with China and Russia amid regional tensions with the United States. This exercise is a cause of concern since:
  • Moscow is also at loggerheads with the United States and its allies over Ukraine.
  • Tensions between the US and China over the treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, a crackdown in Hong Kong, and the situation around Taiwan have also been growing.
  • Iran has been holding regular military drills as attempts to revive its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers flounder.

Know more about the Russia – Ukraine Crisis in International Relations This Week Episode 55.

2. Developments in China

Context: 

China’s economy slowed markedly in the final months of 2021 as government measures to limit real estate speculation hurt other sectors as well. 

Problems in Chinese Economy

• Zero Covid Policy: 
  • The Chinese government has zero tolerance for domestic Covid cases and has dramatic measures designed to torpedo transmission.
  • Restrictions have proved make-or-break for many of the country’s high achieving businesses, as the measures strangle supply chains and worker manoeuvrability.

• The Winter Olympics:
  • The Winter Olympics could end up piling even more pressure on the economy as the competition itself could come with diminishing returns.

• The Property Sector:
  • The pandemic has squeezed China’s property sector, with the responsible factors still pursuant in early 2022.
  • Chinese people have accumulated more debt, leading to lower consumption, a housing downturn and slower growth.

• Demographics:
  • The last few years have seen China dealing with the fallout from its decades-long one-child policy.
  • Stalling demographics have a knock-on effect on the economy as it leaves businesses with a shrinking pool of workers.

• Private Sector Struggles
  • As costs for many raw materials have risen and the pandemic has prompted some consumers to stay home, millions of private businesses have crumbled, most of them small and family-owned.
  • This is a big concern because private companies are the backbone of the Chinese economy.

• Evergrande Crisis:
• • Chinese property giant Evergrande, whose liabilities exceed $300bn, failed to meet interest payments to international investors.
  • The crisis has spooked investors who fear contagion across China’s property and banking sectors.
  • Evergrande has been selling assets in recent months to raise the money it owes to customers, investors and suppliers.
  • There are several reasons why Evergrande’s problems are serious.
    • The first is the potential impact on China’s financial system: If Evergrande defaults, banks and other lenders may be forced to lend less.
    • Firms including construction and design firms and materials suppliers are at risk of incurring major losses, which could force them into bankruptcy.
    • This may also unnerve foreign investors, who could see China as a less attractive place to put their money.

Implications on India

• There are concerns that a slowing Chinese economy could impact the incipient global recovery. 
• Given that the country’s bilateral trade with China has grown nearly 50 per cent in the first nine months of 2021, India could see a significant impact.
•  The Indian economy is deeply intertwined with Chinese exports.
• India’s imports from China rose to 52% pushing India’s trade deficit with China. 
• Some of India’s major imports from China include smartphones and automobile components, telecom equipment, active pharmaceutical ingredients, and other chemicals.
• A slowing Chinese economy portends worries on the buoyant trade front, apart from the overall loss of momentum to the global post-pandemic economic recovery. 
• India depends on China in many key industries from electrical machinery and appliances to pharmaceutical drug API.

3. Iranian President’s Visit to Russia

Context: 

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

Aspects of Iran-Russia Relationship:

• Cooperation Against US Hostility: Both countries emphasized the importance of the Russian-Iranian relationship in the face of what they see as implacable US hostility.
• Iran’s permanent membership in the Eurasian Economic Union: In 2018 Iran signed a three-year free trade agreement with the EEU. Permanent membership in the EEU would help Iran with US sanctions, and Iran needs Russia’s support to become a permanent member. 
• Nuclear talks: Other topics of conversation will likely include the ongoing nuclear talks between Iran and world powers.
• Links with Syria: On Syria, Afghanistan and Yemen, Russia and Iran are likely to hold consultations for their responses to the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan and the Houthi strike on the UAE.
• Regional Security Cooperation: Cooperation on regional security issues will also feature, as Moscow highlights its Gulf security plan and planned trilateral drills with China and Iran.
• Other Areas of Cooperation: The two countries’ long-term cooperation ranged from energy, infrastructure, production capacity, science and technology to medical and healthcare, agriculture, fisheries and cyber security.

Know more about the  Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Iran and Russia Relationship and Concerns of India: 

• Post the collapse of the JCPOA deal, Indian relations became extremely sour as India had to cut its oil imports from Iran. This had an adverse impact on both nations as India receives Iranian oil at a comparatively cheaper price. 
• Due to sanctions, the work on Chabahar Port’s Shahid Beheshti terminal and other infrastructure projects like the Chabahar-Zahedan railway line have continued at a dismal pace. This is a big loss when it comes to India’s geopolitical interests in Central Asia.
• It is impossible for India to have any land route connections with Central Asia due to its shaky relations with Pakistan. Thus, Iran is India’s Gateway to Central Asia.
• The China-Iran 25-year agreement is worrisome for India, as the agreement prioritizes Chinese firms over others when it comes to infrastructure projects. 
• The recent situation in Afghanistan makes Iran an important ally for India. Along with five Central Asian nations, Iran, Russia, China and Pakistan were invited by India for a National Security Advisors’ Dialogue on Afghanistan.

4. India Nepal Relations

Context: 

This article highlights the issue of the India-Nepal border dispute and concerns associated with it.

Recent Developments:

• The Indian Embassy in Nepal said that India’s position on its boundary with Nepal is well known, consistent and unambiguous.
• The Prime Minister of India announced plans to expand the road across the Lipulekh area, which Nepal claims as its own. 
• Nepal asked India to stop the “unilateral construction and expansion” of roads in its East of Kali River territory.

Disputed Kalapani Territory

Image source: https://www.brookings.edu/

• Kalapani is a territory that lies on the easternmost corner of Uttarakhand’s Pithoragarh district.
• The dispute over Kalapani between Nepal and India was revived in November 2019 when India published a revised political map showing the newly created Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. 
• Both India and Nepal lay claim to Kalapani. 
• Know more about the Kalapani Issue.

Is China’s political influence in Nepal harming Indian interests?

• China’s active outreach to Nepal in recent years has been partly prompted by India’s increasing force posturing along its border.
• As China’s political influence grows in Nepal, Beijing has encouraged Nepal to take a bolder stance against India during the current crisis. 
• By playing the China balancing card as a last resort, Nepali leaders often hope to get India to pay attention to festering problems that Indian diplomacy neglects.
• There are serious concerns in terms of security and strategic establishments, which are quick to step in and tend to resort to coercive tools that can further escalate the dispute. 

Know More About India-Nepal Relations in the link.

Read more International Relations This Week articles in the link.

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