International Relations This Week: Episode 68

International relations is a very important segment of the UPSC syllabus. In this series, we present an analysis of the most important international issues and developments that occurred over the past week relevant for the IAS exam. In this article, you can learn more about the visit of the Chinese foreign minister to India, new developments in the India-Maldives relationship, BIMSTEC and other latest developments in IR.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Turkey & Geopolitics
2. Geopolitical Developments in the Middle East
3. North Korea
4. Myanmar

1. Turkey & Geopolitics

• Turkey occupies a significant geopolitical position in Europe and the Eurasian context.
• Turkey straddles Europe and Asia, forming a land bridge that links the Levant, Iran and the Caucasus with Southeastern Europe.
• Turkey is also a member of NATO and has a significant role to play in addressing the crisis in Ukraine.

Turkey’s Ambitions

• The war in Ukraine has once again reminded the significant position of the Turkish Navy in the region.
• Turkey sees itself as the guardian of the access to the Black Sea, Eastern Mediterranean Sea and the straits of Bosphorus and Dardanelles.
• Turkey since World War I has focused on building a strong navy which makes it an independent and strong naval power in the region.
• Turkey is one of the very few countries in the world capable of building Light Aircraft Carriers (LAC) like Anadolu and multirole frigates such as F-515.
• Turkey not just uses these capabilities for strengthening its own naval security but also to export its naval technologies to other countries such as Pakistan, Malaysia, Libya and other Islamic countries, thus extending its soft power.

Challenges to Turkey’s Interests

• As the laws of the seas allow the littoral countries to exploit mineral resources in their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ), the overlap of EEZ has caused tensions between Turkey and its neighbouring countries in the recent past.
• Most of the energy pipeline projects from Russia to Europe pass through the waters of Turkey and the conflict in Ukraine now makes Turkey face tough choices in responding to the conflict. 
  • For Turkey, the problem is manifold with far-reaching implications for its struggling economy, damaged relations with the United States (US) and EU, its complex partnership with Russia, and also its regional security architecture in the Black Sea. 
• Tensions between Greece and Turkey are on the rise over the exploration of minerals underwater. 

Image source: BBC

• Turkey is also upset that some of the major countries which its NATO partners have excluded Turkey from their negotiations of major pipeline projects.
• The current authoritarian regime in Turkey (under Erdogan) has also been criticised by the western powers.

Latest developments

• Turkey has followed an innovative strategy of buying advanced naval and military technologies from western countries like Germany and has reverse-engineered them and now manufactures those technologies domestically and also exports them.
• The advancements in its technology have not just leveraged its position in the region but also helped Turkey extend its geopolitical power.
• Although Turkey is currently facing an economic and political crisis in its backyard, its technological advancements have helped Turkey improve its relations with many countries which were previously considered to be rivals.

Read about India-Turkey Relations.

2. Geopolitical Developments in the Middle East

• The spillover effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have been severely felt in the Middle Eastern countries as the oil prices after the invasion of Ukraine have increased well above $100 a barrel.
• Due to the rise in fuel prices, the oil-importing countries will also be severely affected and this, in turn, will pose further risks to the economic conditions of oil-producing countries in the middle east.
• Also, the oil-producing nations in the region, especially Saudi Arabia, have been forced in recent years to adopt certain measures which are aimed at balancing the limited use of fossil fuels in the future.

Challenges to the Countries in Middle East

• Significant changes taking place in the oil politics in terms of replacing the usage of fossil fuels, spillover effects of Ukraine and the volatility in the oil market.
• Concerns about the growing influence of Russia and China in Iran due to the constant tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
• Growing security challenges in the region.
• The civil war in Yemen.

Impact of Civil War in Yemen on Middle East

• There has been a geopolitical conflict between the Saudi-led coalition and the Iranian backed Houthi Rebels.
• The war broke out in 2014 when the Houthi insurgents (Shiite rebels) who have a history of rising against the Sunni government, took control of Sana which is the largest city and the capital of Yemen.
• About 20.7 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance.
• Around 4.2 million people are estimated to be internally displaced.
• Also recently, the Houthis launched missiles and targeted Saudi’s oil installations on the eve of a Formula 1 event which is an international racing event.
  • Saudi Arabia undertook retaliatory aerial attacks through missiles on Sana.
  • Houthis offered 3 days of ceasefire to renegotiate peace.

Path Ahead

• The measures of ceasefire and negotiations for peace are a welcome sign for establishing stability and order in the region.
• Saudi Arabia and UAE must look for ways to negotiate with the Houthis and should withdraw their troops from the region.
• It is reported that the people in the region are in dire need of humanitarian and medical assistance post the pandemic and the international community must come together and extend the same.

Implications on India

• India has close relationships with most of the major countries in the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran and Israel.
  • The resolution of tensions between the Middle East countries will hence largely benefit India.
• Also, the normalisation of ties between the U.S. and Iran will help India greatly, as the relations with Iran have a significant potential to leverage India’s interests in terms of trade and connectivity in the region.
• The tensions between US and Iran have also pushed Iran more towards China and the resolution of the conflict will restrict the influence of China on Iran.

3. North Korea

• The recent test of the Hwasong-17 missile by North Korea has garnered the attention of the world.
• The missile is regarded as a “Monster Missile” by experts.
• North Korea had also tested the Hwasong-17 missile previously but was a failure.

Hwasong-17 missile 

• The Hwasong-17 missile flew about 1,090 km at a maximum altitude of 6,248.5 km and hit a target in the Sea of Japan during the test.
• The missile was in the air for about 67.5 minutes.
• Its predecessor, the Hwasong-15, which was tested in 2017 reached an altitude of about 4,475 km and covered 950 km over 53 minutes.
• Experts believe that the weapon is the largest road-mobile, liquid-fuelled Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICMB) in the world. 
• The missile could be designed to carry multiple warheads.

Significance of the missile

• North Korea with this missile can now strike any target in the whole of North America.
• The demonstration of the capabilities of the missile not just threatens the mainland of America but also countries like Japan and South Korea that have hostile relations with North Korea.

Criticism of North Korea

• North Korea has been regarded as a “Rogue State” by various countries for its policies.
• Analysts suggest that they always exaggerate their capacity to threaten America and other rival countries.
• Experts also criticise North Korea as a “puppet in the hands of China”.
• North Korea has been regarded as an economically and technologically backward country compared to the other countries in the region.

Latest developments in North Korea and Chinese Relations

• At the peak of the COVID pandemic, North Korea closed its borders with China which severely affected the supply of essentials to the country.
• North Korea also showed hesitance in approving the use of the SINOVAC vaccine initially from China.

Path Ahead

• The testing of these missiles has received huge criticism from the citizens of South Korea.
  • The actions which South Korea undertakes against the testing of these missiles are widely awaited.
• There are also questions about the opening of North Korean borders with China, when China is experiencing a spike in the number of infections.
• Questions are also raised on how long the society, polity and the army of North Korea would gel and support Kim Jong-un and his successors.

Way forward for India

• Considering the fact that India has diplomatic relations with all the stakeholders involved in the issue, India must prioritise its own national interest and exercise its strategic autonomy in its foreign policy rather than condemning the actions of one country due to the pressure from another.

4. Myanmar

• High-level Russian leadership recently took part in Myanmar’s military parade. 
• This latest development has raised eyebrows across the world.

Military Junta in Myanmar

• The Military Junta captured power in Myanmar following a coup in February 2021. Know more about the Myanmar coup 2021 in the link.
• The Military Junta has been criticised by the entire international community for the policies they have adopted and their brutal suppression of opposition.
• The Military Junta has retained power for over a year now because of the military assistance from China and Russia.

India Myanmar Relations

• India shares a long land border of over 1600 km with Myanmar along with a maritime border.
• Myanmar is the only ASEAN country sharing its border with India and hence it acts as a gateway for India to South East Asia.
• Also, Myanmar plays an important role in India’s Act East Policy.
• India has also relied on Myanmar to quell the insurgency and separatist movements in the North Eastern States.

India Myanmar Economic Relations

• India is the fifth-largest trading partner of Myanmar.
• The trade is dominated by the agricultural sector as India imports significant amounts of beans, pulses and timber from Myanmar.
• India’s exports include sugar and pharmaceuticals.

Read more about India-Myanmar Relations.

Impact of military coup on India

• Ever since the military coup in Myanmar, there has been an increased refugee influx into Indian states through its porous borders with Myanmar.
• The Indian government initially tried to restrict the refugee influx but had to change its policy because of the rising pressure from the citizens of North Eastern States who share age-old ties with the people of Myanmar.

India’s Stand: 

• In order to keep China’s growing influence in check, India’s relationship with Myanmar has been predicated on maintaining a balance in its neighbourhood.
• As a result, it has abandoned certain democratic ideals and allowed itself to remain silent about the events in Myanmar.
• It has consistently refused to actively speak out against the junta, abstaining from voting on a UN General Assembly resolution on Myanmar.
• India recently urged Myanmar to put an end to the violence and implement the ASEAN five-point consensus. Myanmar continues to be a target for military exports.

Path ahead

• There have been rising apprehensions among the Myanmarese about their dependence on China.
• It is said that China is taking advantage of the political turmoil and economic instability of Myanmar.
• Chinese organisations have also been involved in the contraband trade and mining and there have been growing concerns in this regard among the Myanmarese. 
• It has to be seen how India manages all these challenges in its relationship with Myanmar.

Read more International Relations This Week articles in the link.

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