23 May 2024: UPSC Exam Comprehensive News Analysis

B. GS 2 Related

Category: POLITY

1. On concerns over voter turnout data

Syllabus: Elections in India

Mains: Issues in voter turnout data

Context​: The transparency of voter turnout data has become a contentious issue in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections. Opposition leaders and civil society members are demanding the publication of Form 17C data, which records the absolute number of votes polled at each booth, citing discrepancies and delays in the data released by the Election Commission of India (ECI). 

• The matter has escalated to the Supreme Court, seeking directives for the ECI to ensure timely and detailed disclosure of voter turnout information.

Issues Raised

• Discrepancies in Data: Significant differences between initial voter turnout figures and the final percentages have raised suspicions. For instance, initial turnout figures released shortly after polling contrasted starkly with later published data, showing unexplained increases.
• Delay in Data Release: The ECI has been criticized for the delayed release of voter turnout percentages, taking days after the polling phases to publish final figures.
• Lack of Detailed Data: The ECI has only published voting percentages without providing the absolute number of votes or detailed polling station-wise data, contrary to previous practices.

Significance

• Transparency and Trust: Publishing Form 17C data online enhances transparency, ensuring public confidence in the electoral process. It helps prevent doubts about potential manipulations or discrepancies.
• Verification by Candidates: Form 17C data allows candidates to verify the results against the Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) counts, crucial for maintaining the integrity of the election results.
• Legal Recourse: Discrepancies identified through Form 17C data can form the basis for election petitions in courts, ensuring accountability.

ECI’s Response

• Legal Obligations: The ECI stated it is not legally required to publish the absolute number of votes polled online, as copies of Form 17C are provided to polling agents, ensuring transparency.
• Operational Justifications: The ECI attributed delays and variations in turnout data to the extended polling hours and the inclusion of postal ballots.
• Potential for Misuse: The ECI argued that publicizing detailed data might cause confusion and be exploited to question the electoral process unjustly.

Supreme Court’s Intervention

• The Supreme Court is set to hear the petition by the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) to mandate the ECI to upload polling station-wise voter turnout data within 48 hours post-polling. 
• The Chief Justice questioned why the ECI does not upload this readily available data, emphasizing the need for transparency.

Expert Opinions

• Common Cause: It highlighted the need for the ECI to upload scanned copies of Form 17C immediately to ensure transparency.
• ADR: It pointed out the impracticality for smaller parties to have polling agents in all booths, making online publication of Form 17C data essential for fair participation.

Solutions

• Mandate Timely Publication: Implement a rule requiring the ECI to publish Form 17C data online within a stipulated time frame post-polling.
• Enhance Legal Framework: Amend electoral laws to explicitly mandate the online publication of detailed polling data to avoid future ambiguities.
• Increase Transparency Measures: Ensure continuous improvement of transparency measures, including real-time updates and comprehensive data availability to the public and stakeholders.

Nut Graf: Ensuring transparency in voter turnout data is crucial for maintaining public trust in the electoral process. The publication of Form 17C data can address concerns about discrepancies and potential manipulation, fostering a more robust and accountable electoral system.

E. Editorials

Category: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

1. A ‘No-Limit’ bromance that is not just a bilateral matter

Syllabus: GS-2, Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and Agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests

Mains: Impact of Russia-China Bonhomie on India

Overview of Russia-China Relations:

• Historical Phases:
  • 19th Century: Czarist Russia expanded into a weak China, retaining territories even after the Soviet Union’s formation.
  • 1949-1962: Brief period of “Comintern brotherhood” followed by ideological rifts post-China’s 1962 attack on India.
  • 1972 Shift: Post-Nixon’s visit, China tilted towards the West for economic support, distancing from the Soviet bloc.
  • Post-2012 Realignment: Rising US-China tensions led to renewed Russia-China ties, culminating in the “No Limits” declaration in 2022.
• Modern Dynamics:
  • Economic Dependence: Russia relies heavily on China for energy exports and sanctioned goods, with trade reaching $240 billion in 2023.
  • US-China Relations: Despite tensions, China’s trade with the US ($575 billion) remains significantly higher than with Russia.

Beijing Summit’s Implications:

• Joint Statement Nuances:
  • Lack of Detail: The 7,000-word statement omitted specifics on economic and military ties, possibly to avoid Western sanctions or highlight disagreements.
  • Anti-US Sentiments: Strongly criticised US policies, labelling them as “dual containment” and destabilising.
• Short-Term Effects:
  • Bilateral Cooperation: Likely an increase in collaboration, especially in materials for Russia’s Ukraine campaign.
  • China’s Leverage: Potential for China to secure better terms for Russian resources and strategic cooperation.
• Long-Term Consequences:
  • Global Polarization: Possible new Cold War dynamics, driven by China’s global ambitions and existing frameworks like BRICS and the Belt and Road Initiative.

Impact on India:

• Strategic Concerns:
  • Russia’s Vulnerability: Russia’s economic and geopolitical dependence on China could affect India’s defence supplies and border security.
  • Evaluating Alternatives: India must scrutinise whether Beijing’s global model aligns with its interests.
• Historical Lessons:
  • Cold War Reflection: India’s past focus on non-alignment may have detracted from core national interests.
  • Strategic Autonomy: Current global status offers India more leverage; it must act with a clear-headed strategy to maximize opportunities.

Strategic Recommendations:

• Leveraging Strengths:
  • Economic and Technological Focus: Emphasize socio-economic development and realpolitik.
  • Higher Profile in Global Order: Push for a more significant role within existing international frameworks.
• Nimble Approach:
  • Adaptability: Prepare for a fluid global landscape, prioritizing long-term national goals with strategic foresight.

Nut Graf: The evolving Russia-China alliance, marked by significant geostrategic and economic ties, poses global implications, particularly for India. Amid potential new Cold War dynamics, India must leverage its strategic autonomy to navigate challenges and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

Category: ECONOMY

1. A vegetable triumvirate, inflation and the takeaway

Syllabus: GS-3, Storage, Transport and Marketing of Agricultural Produce and Issues and Related Constraints

Mains: Cause of inflation in TOP and possible solutions

Introduction: Inflation and CPI in India

• Inflation is a critical economic indicator reflecting changes in the general price level and cost of living.
• In India, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures price inflation, based on Laspeyre’s price index.
• The CPI basket comprises 299 items, with vegetables accounting for a weight of 6.04%.

The Significance of TOP (Tomato, Onion, Potato):

• TOP holds a weightage of 2.2% in the overall CPI basket.
• TOP’s significance extends beyond its numerical representation, influencing both food and beverage inflation and headline CPI figures.
• In urban areas, TOP constitutes 3.6% of the total consumption basket.
• For the bottom 5% of rural consumption classes, TOP constitutes 5% of the total consumption basket.

Recent Trends and Price Volatility:

• In FY2023-24, vegetable prices in India increased by about 15% year-on-year.
• Vegetable prices showed significant volatility, with a drop of 0.7% in June and a rise of 37.4% in July.
• Vegetables, despite having a 6% weight in the CPI basket, contributed to about 30% of inflation in February and March 2024.
• Tomato prices soared by 202% in July 2023, contributing to 18.1% of total headline inflation despite having only a 0.6% weight in the CPI basket.
• The overall contribution of vegetables to headline inflation in July 2023 was 31.9%, with TOP contributing 17.2%.

Addressing Volatility and Supporting Farmers:

• TOP commodities exhibit high price volatility, with a coefficient of variation (CoV) of 5.2 from January 2015 to March 2024.
• This CoV is significantly higher than that of the vegetables sub-group (CoV=3.0), food group (CoV=0.6), and headline inflation (CoV=0.3).
• Effective policy interventions are needed to reduce volatility and support farmers.
• Potential solutions include:
  • Overhauling agricultural value chains.
  • Improving cold storage facilities.
  • Providing better prices for farmers to incentivize production.
  • Reducing high input prices of fertilizers and pesticides.
• Recent short-term measures, such as lifting export bans on onions ahead of elections, highlight the need for long-term solutions.
• Farmers have continually demanded Minimum Support Prices for onions, a demand that remains largely ignored by the government.

Nut Graf: The volatility of tomato, onion, and potato prices significantly impacts India’s inflation, underscoring the need for effective policy interventions, improved agricultural value chains, and better support for farmers to stabilize prices and reduce inflationary pressures.