AIR Spotlight is an insightful program featured daily on the All India Radio Newsonair. In this program, many eminent panellists discuss issues of importance which can be quite helpful in IAS exam preparation. This article is about the discussion on ASEAN being at the centre of India’s Act East policy.
Participants:
- Dr. Harsh Vardhan Pant, Strategic Analyst
- Simran Sodhi, Journalist
Context: India-ASEAN relations.
Introduction:
- A number of meetings were held to commemorate thirty years of dialogue relations and ten years of Strategic Partnership between India and ASEAN.
- ASEAN is central to India’s Act East policy. It is at the heart of India’s Indo-Pacific outreach. The Indian Prime Minister at Shangri La Dialogue laid out India’s Indo-Pacific policy that highlighted that ASEAN will remain at the core of India’s policy outreach in the region.
- ASEAN has become pivotal not only economically but also geopolitically. To analyze the relationship between the two it is important to assess both the economic transformation as well as the political and geopolitical engagement between the two entities.
- In June 2022, New Delhi hosted a special India-ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ meeting. It was co-chaired by the Indian Foreign Affairs Minister and the Foreign Minister of Singapore.
For more on Act East Policy, read here: Act East Policy of India
RCEP dimension in ASEAN-India relations:
- India pulled out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in 2019 because of some critical concerns like China’s entry into the Indian market via the ASEAN route.
- India’s External Affairs Minister highlighted that India’s relationship with China needs to be reassessed by addressing the border dispute first. Unlike ASEAN which has prioritized economic ties over political ties, India will likely take its relationship forward on the basis of mutual respect and sensitivity about each other’s national interests.
- Moreover, RCEP has not delivered the expected results in terms of economic trade.
- New organizations like Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) have been pushed forward by the US administration that has provided alternative options to India.
- IPEF has multiple dimensions and is much wider than any other trade arrangement.
- If IPEF becomes a success, it will provide better trade options to India, South East Asian countries, and ASEAN members.
- Given the great power contestation happening in the world, it is difficult for India to revive RCEP.
China factor in India-ASEAN relationship:
- China is the most important economic player in ASEAN. In fact, the whole idea of ASEAN was conceived around accessing benefits from all relevant powers in the region. It was imagined that the US will provide military stability and security and China would provide economic stability.
- However, in the present scenario, ASEAN members have become overwhelmingly dependent on China for economic development.
- In the long run, this is not sustainable as it impacts the autonomy of these countries to make independent decisions. This is the reason that countries like Singapore, Indonesia, and the Philippines are explicitly articulating the need for greater engagement with emerging economic powers like India.
- South East Asia has raised concerns that under the garb of trade dependence, China has militarized and weaponized trade engagement.
- China continues to assert its power in the South China Sea and the ASEAN member states cannot do much because China can use its economic muscle to make strategic and territorial gains in the region.
Other issues in ASEAN:
- One of the most important concerns is that ASEAN members are internally divided and there is a lack of consensus among them.
- Even while dealing with China, even though the underlying theme of balancing China is the same, they are following different strategies. For instance:
- The Philippines and Indonesia have raised concerns.
- Indonesia has made its priority clear in terms of finding an alternative to China.
- Countries like Singapore are trying to bring external factors to balance China.
- Moreover, the Ukraine crisis has demonstrated that great power rivalries and geopolitical contestations are here to stay. The big powers of the world can use coercion of all kinds. This was even witnessed in the case of the South China Sea (much before the Russia-Ukraine war) dispute.
- It should be remembered that China disregarded the Arbitration Council’s ruling, which was launched by the Philippines.
- The great power contestation can become a major impediment for South East Asian countries and ASEAN member states because the sole purpose of ASEAN was to engage with both US and China. But this model is coming under threat as China and USA are openly competing against each other.
- The United States has just released its National Security Strategy where it has clearly highlighted China as the most important geopolitical challenge for itself.
- On the other hand, the Chinese President in the recent 20th Party Congress spoke about the challenges for China and his views on Taiwan as the critical factor in shaping China’s future.
- There is going to be a lot of turmoil and turbulence in South East Asia and ASEAN due to the changing world order.
- Bilateral relations among the member states will also play their role in regional organizations, as this is a practical aspect of international relations.
- QUAD has also emerged partly as a response to China’s aggression in the maritime space of the Indo-Pacific.
- Many bilaterals, trilaterals, and minilaterals are also emerging in the region which is also hampering the significance of the larger organization of ASEAN.
- ASEAN members have not been able to provide a unified vision for the organization and are drawn into global contestation and competition.
Future Course of Action:
- India and ASEAN can put a united front. But to implement this, ASEAN members will have to resolve their internal differences.
- ASEAN will also have to figure out its own response to the kind of geopolitical contestation that is happening in its vicinity.
- It should also be noted that ASEAN has a similar predicament that India has, both want to focus more on internal and domestic development rather than great power politics or block politics.
- As highlighted by India’s External Affairs Ministers, India and ASEAN should converge on issues like Indo-Pacific connectivity, COVID-19, cyber security, terrorism, climate change, climate finance, climate adaptation, etc. These are areas where geopolitics and major power will not have a prominent role.
Conclusion
There is a range of dimensions where India and ASEAN can galvanize and strengthen their relationship without indulging in great power politics.
Read previous AIR Spotlight articles in the link.
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